THE PALLILOG
How the Houston Astros can punch their postseason ticket right now
Aug 18, 2023, 12:21 pm
The Astros open a three-game series with the Mariners on Friday night. Composite image by Jack Brame.
Let's discuss the top 5 reasons for the Astros recent success
The Astros can essentially wrap up a playoff spot over the next week. The big goal is still to shoot past the Texas Rangers and win another American League West championship, but job one is making sure that at bare minimum a Wild Card entry into the postseason tournament is a certainty. The Astros start the weekend trailing the Rangers by two and a half games. They are also two and a half games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the top Wild Card.
They are three games up on the Toronto Blue Jays for the second Wild Card, three and a half games ahead of Seattle for the final Wild Card, with the Red Sox three games behind the Mariners. Well lookee here. The Astros play host to the Mariners for three games this weekend before the Red Sox are in town for four. The Astros winning both series would just about deal death blows to the M’s or BoSox making the playoffs at the Astros’ expense. Conversely, a losing homestand would make things uncomfortable for the Astros, especially with series in Boston and Seattle still remaining.
Three starts in to his second time around with the Astros Justin Verlander has been rather average, with mini-trending going in the wrong direction. He’s made one excellent start (seven innings two earned runs at the Yankees), one okay start (six innings three earned runs vs. the Angels), one poor start (five innings, four earned runs at the Marlins). It is evident that his stuff has fallen off a half notch, generating swings and misses and strikeouts at a much lower rate than pre-2023 JV. The Astros tweaked their rotation so that Verlander could make his Miami start on his preferred four days rest. That should not be the norm. He’s 40!
Verlander and others might argue that last season he was awesome on four days rest with a 0.90 earned run average over five starts. Well guess what, he was even better on six or more days rest with a 0.63 ERA over seven starts. After the All-Star break last season Verlander’s only start on four days rest was the start when he strained a calf and went on the injured list. Verlander’s meticulousness and competitiveness have been part of his greatness. Those traits shouldn’t be allowed to become stubbornness to a fault. Extra days rest for him make sense. After next week the Astros are off the final five Thursdays of the regular season. Building around Verlander going on four days rest would be foolhardy.
Jeremy Pena is having a good August but overall his second big league season clearly remains disappointing to this point. Pena’s 2023 salary is $754,900. Carlos Correa is having a massively disappointing season for Minnesota and has been no better than Pena. Correa is in the first year of his six year 200 million dollar with the Twins. That’s 33.333 million dollars per season. Pena turns 26 September 22, the same day Correa turns 29.
Chas McCormick’s salary is $752,500. In late May Chas endured a one for 20 slump that dropped his batting average to .211 and OPS to .663. Those numbers could have warranted a demotion to Sugar Land if the Astros had quality alternatives. They did not, and since then Chas has been spectacular. In a stretch of 57 games covering 54 starts the 28 years old McCormick is batting .315 with a whopping 1.015 OPS. Last season Yordan Alvarez finished with a 1.019 OPS. George Springer has 2024-2026 left after on the six year 150 million dollar contract he signed with Toronto. Springer has been absolutely mediocre this year. He turns 34 next month.
Moral of these stories? Regardless of what Dana Brown says publicly, keeping guys as “Astros for life” is generally empty chatter. Unless Jim Crane has a bizarre change of heart, Alex Bregman can forget any long term huge dollar extension. Bregman is merely a good player at this point, from 2020 forward just a .257 hitter with a .792 OPS. That’s not remotely elite, and is clearly inferior to where Springer and Correa were when they left via free agency. When Bregman can hit the market after next season, he will be 30.
Jose Altuve is also free agent-eligible after next season. He’ll be 34 and the risk factors of more injuries and performance fade are real, but a healthy Altuve remains a remarkable player. If there is one guy who “Astro for life” should apply to, it’s Altuve. But business is business. The discipline that has served Crane so well will be tested.
Then there’s Kyle Tucker. He ended May with a rather meh .267 average and .775 OPS. Since then, a phenomenal performance with a .320 batting average and 1.001 OPS that probably has vaulted Tucker into the top five for AL Most Valuable Player. Tucker is the guy with whom Crane needs to show some intelligent contractual flexibility. Tucker turns 27 in January. There is very little chance that Jacob Melton, Colin Barber, Joey Loperfido, or any other outfielder in the Astros’ minor league system becomes as good as Tucker is now and should remain for the next three to five seasons. “Overpaying” Tucker on the back end of a seven or eight year deal that takes him through his age 33 or 34 season to secure the entirety of his prime would not be bad business. Damn sure not in comparison to signing a declining 36-year-old “slugger” to a three-year deal. Not mentioning any names (Cough. Jose Abreu. Cough.)
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A new challenge awaits, and the Astros know what’s at stake
Jun 27, 2025, 2:05 pm
The Houston Astros didn’t just sweep the Philadelphia Phillies. They sent a message.
In three tightly contested games against one of the best teams in baseball, the Astros leaned on their elite pitching and timely offense to secure a statement sweep. Hunter Brown was electric in the finale, shutting down the Phillies’ lineup and showing the kind of dominance that’s become a defining feature of his game. Bryan Abreu slammed the door with four strikeouts to close out the win, and rookie Cam Smith delivered the deciding blow — an RBI single in the eighth to drive in Isaac Paredes, lifting the Astros to a 2-1 victory.
It wasn’t a series filled with offensive fireworks, but that’s exactly the point. Both teams sent out top-tier pitching throughout the series, and Houston was the team that kept finding a way. For much of the season, the Astros’ inconsistent offense might’ve been a concern in a series like this. But this time, it felt different. The bats showed up just enough, and the pitching did the rest.
Now, with Houston on pace for 96 wins at the halfway point, the question becomes: Is the league officially on notice?
Maybe. Maybe not. But one thing is certain, the Astros have the third-best record in baseball, they’re 17-7 in one-run games, and they’re playing with the kind of rhythm that’s defined their near-decade of dominance. Unlike last year’s uneven campaign, this version of the Astros looks like a team that’s rediscovered its edge. Whether or not they need to take care of business against the Cubs to validate it, their recent run leaves little doubt: when Houston is clicking, there are very few teams built to stop them.
Off the field, however, a bit of long-term uncertainty is starting to creep in. Reports surfaced this week that extension talks with shortstop Jeremy Peña have been put on hold as he recently signed with super-agent Scott Boras. The combination has led many to wonder if Peña might follow the same free-agent path as Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and others before him. Boras clients rarely settle early, and Peña, now one of the most valuable shortstops in the game, could command a price tag the Astros have historically avoided paying.
If Peña and even Hunter Brown are likely to get priced out of Houston, the front office may need to pivot. Isaac Paredes could be the most logical extension candidate on the roster. His approach — particularly his ability to pull the ball with authority — is tailor-made for Daikin Park and the Crawford Boxes. Last year, Paredes struggled to leave the yard at Wrigley Field, but in Houston, he’s thriving. Locking him in long term would give the Astros offensive stability and the kind of value they’ve typically targeted.
As for Cam Smith, the breakout rookie is far from free agency and will remain a cost-controlled piece for years. That’s exactly why his contributions now, like his clutch eighth-inning knock to beat Philadelphia, matter so much. He's one more reason why the Astros don’t just look good right now. They look dangerous.
And the rest of the league is starting to feel it.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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