THE PALLILOG
How “3” really could be the magic number for Houston Astros, Justin Verlander
Nov 17, 2022, 12:59 pm
Will JV return to the Astros? Composite image by Jack Brame.
Houston Astros clinch the top seed in the AL beating the D-Backs,
You’ve probably heard the expression “Bad things come in threes.” That’s just a silly superstition which is more about heightened awareness making a connection among things. Just as valid as “bad things come in threes” is “good things come in threes.” Are you listening Justin Verlander? Freshly off of winning your third American League Cy Young Award. One of six pitchers in Major League Baseball history to throw at least three no-hitters. What about, three-time World Series Champion as a Houston Astro? Obviously winning another ring is far from a given should Verlander return, but Houston is the only franchise for which he feasibly could be a three-time champ.
Another three figures to play a major role in where Verlander continues his career. The three year contract at least one team is likely to offer him. Over his career Verlander has made more than 300 million dollars in just player salary. His grandchildren’s grandchildren’s college funds are all set. But salaries are another scoreboard for athletes. Verlander knows that former teammate Max Scherzer set a record last season with his 43.33 million dollars per year draw in his three year 130 million dollar deal with the New York Mets. Verlander absolutely would love to top 43.3/year and/or 130 over three years. Who wouldn’t? But would he take that money from a decidedly lesser team (i.e. Giants or Angels) vs. a bit less to stay with the Astros or to join a perennial contender such as the Dodgers or Braves? As covered before Verlander also craves making a run at 300 career wins. At 244 wins now there is very little chance Verlander can get to 300 within the next three seasons. Is there a team that would offer a fourth at least partly guaranteed season, during which Verlander would be 43 years old? I would doubt that, but you never know. At least one three year offer seems a given.
Not that this impacts his decision making, but if Verlander does return it opens up the real possibility that his inevitable Hall of Fame plaque has him wearing an Astros cap. He’s only pitched three full seasons as an Astro but they produced two Cy Young Awards and a runner-up finish (to the Rays’ Blake Snell in 2018). The month plus postseason with which he started his Astros’ career in 2017 went fairly well also. Another couple really good seasons of individual and team achievement would give Verlander five-plus campaigns with Houston brilliant enough to outweigh the twelve-plus seasons of mostly excellence he logged with the Detroit Tigers. When there is at least a decent argument for more than one team the Hall typically defers to the player’s preference of cap. Hence, Nolan Ryan’s plaque has a Texas Rangers cap, despite the fact Nolan won 138 games as an Angel and 106 as an Astro vs. 51 as a Ranger. Ryan racked up no-hitter numbers six and seven and strikeout number 5000 (plus 714 more) during his five seasons with the Rangers so the Hall let The Express call his cap shot.
Best in the West?
Should Verlander leave, the Astros would still have quality and depth for their starting rotation better than that of most teams, but they would no longer rate an edge in that department over their rising American League West challenger the Seattle Mariners. While the Astros hope to strengthen their offense, the Mariners knew they had to upgrade their lineup if really wanting to leap toward elite status. The Mariners’ first move came Wednesday in their acquisition of former Astro outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. As frame of reference, Hernandez’s OPS in 2022 was .807. Kyle Tucker’s OPS was .808. Now, exactly no one would rather have Hernandez than Tucker for the 2023 season and beyond, but he’s a good get for Seattle with the 30 year old playing for a free agent payday after the 2023 season. The Mariners are not done.
Breaking the bank
My most recent column noted the alternate golden rule: He/she with the most gold makes the rules. In that vein Jim Crane for the time being acts as the Astros’ General Manager after holding the door open for James Click to leave. The Astros’ first transaction under GM Crane was the overpay of reliever Rafael Montero at three years, 34.5 million dollars. That’s a lot for a 32 year old guy off of his first good big league season. It’s an overpay at least relative to past contracts anyway. However, the Astros and MLB overall are flush with cash after a record setting revenue year. And while the following doesn’t mean it's incumbent on Crane and partners to pay whatever to maximize the duration of this Astros Dynasty, it is worth remembering and taking into account that Crane and partners bought the Astros for 610 million dollars. If moved to sell they could command more than two billion.
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
As of 9:42 Central Daylight Saving Time Friday night, the Astros (and all other baseball players) are officially the Boys of Summer, officially so far as the season is concerned anyway. When the summer solstice arrived last year the Astros were nine games off the lead in the American League West. So in addressing the rhetorical axiom “what a difference a year makes,” the difference in the Astros’ case is a whopping 14 games as they start the weekend atop their division by five games. At this point in the season last year the Astros’ record in one-run games was a brutal 5-14. In 2025 they are 13-7 in games decided by the narrowest of margins.
That the Astros are just 4-5 in road games against the two worst teams in the American League is no big deal, other than that every game counts in the standings. Still, just as was losing two out of three at the pathetic White Sox earlier this season, it is no doubt disappointing to the Astros to have only gotten a split of their four-game set with the Athletics. The A’s had gone 9-28 in their last 37 games before the Astros arrived in West Sacramento. The former-Oaklanders took the first game and the finale, as the Astros’ offense played bi-polar ball over the four nights. Two stat-padding explosion games that totaled 24 runs and 35 hits were bookended by a puny one-run output Monday and Thursday’s 5-4 10-inning loss. Baseball happens. Nevertheless, as the Astros open their weekend set versus the Angels, they have gone 17-7 over their last 24 games to forge their five-game division lead.
The New York Yankees’ offense has been by a healthy margin the best attack in the American League so far this season. The reigning AL champions snapped a six-game losing streak Thursday. The Yankees mustered a total of six runs over those six losses, including being shutout in three consecutive games. The baseball season is the defining “it’s a marathon not a sprint” sport. With 162 games on the schedule, combined with the fact that the gap in winning percentage between the best teams and the worst teams is smaller than in any other sport, making much about a series, or week or two of games is misguided, apart from all the results mattering.
The future is now
Without context, statistics can tell very misleading stories. Cam Smith is having a fine rookie season and has the looks of a guy who can blossom into a bonafide star and be an Astro mainstay into the 2030s. But it’s silliness that has anyone talking about the big month of June he’s having. Superficially, sure, going into Thursday’s game Smith’s stat line for the month read a .321 batting average and .874 OPS. Alas, that was mostly about Smith’s two monster games in the consecutive routs of the Athletics. Over those two games Cam went seven for nine with two home runs and two doubles. Over the other 14 games he’s played this month Smith is batting .213 with an OPS below .540.
Cam Smith is a long-term contender for best acquisition of Dana Brown’s tenure as General Manager. If his career was a single game Smith is still in the first inning, but if his career was a stock it’s a buy and hold. If the Astros were for some reason forced to part with all but two players in the organization, I think the two they would hold on to are Smith and Hunter Brown. Jeremy Pena would be another strong candidate, but he turns 28 in September and is two seasons from free agency (unless the rules change in the next collective bargaining agreement). Smith is 22 and under Astros’ control for another five seasons, he’s not even presently eligible for salary arbitration until the 2028 season. Brown turns 27 in August and is currently ineligible for free agency until after the 2028 season.
Angels in the outfield
Hunter Brown pitches opposite Yusei Kikuchi Friday night. Kikuchi was Dana Brown’s big in-season move last season, and Kikuchi was excellent with the Astros which set up to get the three-year 63 million dollar deal he landed with the Halos. After a slow start to his season Kikuchi has been outstanding the past month and a half, with a 2.28 earned run average over his last nine starts. Brown’s 1.88 season ERA is second-best in the big leagues among pitchers with the innings pitched to qualify in the category. Only Pirates’ stud Paul Skenes has a better mark, barely so at 1.85.
Kikuchi was a stellar rental who helped the Astros stretch their consecutive postseasons streak to eight. There was an absurd amount of vitriol over what Dana Brown gave up for him. Joey Loperfido is 26 years old and having a middling season at AAA. Will Wagner is 26 years old and back in the minors after batting .186 with the Blue Jays. Jake Bloss is the one guy who maaaaaybe some day the Astros wish they still had. Bloss is out into 2026 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
_____________________________________________
*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!