THE PALLILOG
How “3” really could be the magic number for Houston Astros, Justin Verlander
Nov 17, 2022, 12:59 pm
Will JV return to the Astros? Composite image by Jack Brame.
Houston Astros clinch the top seed in the AL beating the D-Backs,
You’ve probably heard the expression “Bad things come in threes.” That’s just a silly superstition which is more about heightened awareness making a connection among things. Just as valid as “bad things come in threes” is “good things come in threes.” Are you listening Justin Verlander? Freshly off of winning your third American League Cy Young Award. One of six pitchers in Major League Baseball history to throw at least three no-hitters. What about, three-time World Series Champion as a Houston Astro? Obviously winning another ring is far from a given should Verlander return, but Houston is the only franchise for which he feasibly could be a three-time champ.
Another three figures to play a major role in where Verlander continues his career. The three year contract at least one team is likely to offer him. Over his career Verlander has made more than 300 million dollars in just player salary. His grandchildren’s grandchildren’s college funds are all set. But salaries are another scoreboard for athletes. Verlander knows that former teammate Max Scherzer set a record last season with his 43.33 million dollars per year draw in his three year 130 million dollar deal with the New York Mets. Verlander absolutely would love to top 43.3/year and/or 130 over three years. Who wouldn’t? But would he take that money from a decidedly lesser team (i.e. Giants or Angels) vs. a bit less to stay with the Astros or to join a perennial contender such as the Dodgers or Braves? As covered before Verlander also craves making a run at 300 career wins. At 244 wins now there is very little chance Verlander can get to 300 within the next three seasons. Is there a team that would offer a fourth at least partly guaranteed season, during which Verlander would be 43 years old? I would doubt that, but you never know. At least one three year offer seems a given.
Not that this impacts his decision making, but if Verlander does return it opens up the real possibility that his inevitable Hall of Fame plaque has him wearing an Astros cap. He’s only pitched three full seasons as an Astro but they produced two Cy Young Awards and a runner-up finish (to the Rays’ Blake Snell in 2018). The month plus postseason with which he started his Astros’ career in 2017 went fairly well also. Another couple really good seasons of individual and team achievement would give Verlander five-plus campaigns with Houston brilliant enough to outweigh the twelve-plus seasons of mostly excellence he logged with the Detroit Tigers. When there is at least a decent argument for more than one team the Hall typically defers to the player’s preference of cap. Hence, Nolan Ryan’s plaque has a Texas Rangers cap, despite the fact Nolan won 138 games as an Angel and 106 as an Astro vs. 51 as a Ranger. Ryan racked up no-hitter numbers six and seven and strikeout number 5000 (plus 714 more) during his five seasons with the Rangers so the Hall let The Express call his cap shot.
Best in the West?
Should Verlander leave, the Astros would still have quality and depth for their starting rotation better than that of most teams, but they would no longer rate an edge in that department over their rising American League West challenger the Seattle Mariners. While the Astros hope to strengthen their offense, the Mariners knew they had to upgrade their lineup if really wanting to leap toward elite status. The Mariners’ first move came Wednesday in their acquisition of former Astro outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. As frame of reference, Hernandez’s OPS in 2022 was .807. Kyle Tucker’s OPS was .808. Now, exactly no one would rather have Hernandez than Tucker for the 2023 season and beyond, but he’s a good get for Seattle with the 30 year old playing for a free agent payday after the 2023 season. The Mariners are not done.
Breaking the bank
My most recent column noted the alternate golden rule: He/she with the most gold makes the rules. In that vein Jim Crane for the time being acts as the Astros’ General Manager after holding the door open for James Click to leave. The Astros’ first transaction under GM Crane was the overpay of reliever Rafael Montero at three years, 34.5 million dollars. That’s a lot for a 32 year old guy off of his first good big league season. It’s an overpay at least relative to past contracts anyway. However, the Astros and MLB overall are flush with cash after a record setting revenue year. And while the following doesn’t mean it's incumbent on Crane and partners to pay whatever to maximize the duration of this Astros Dynasty, it is worth remembering and taking into account that Crane and partners bought the Astros for 610 million dollars. If moved to sell they could command more than two billion.
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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