What could really be motivating Houston Astros blockbuster trade report
Where there's smoke...
27 June
Where there's smoke...
It's no secret, the Houston Astros are on a hot streak and have evened their record at 40-40 after winning seven straight games. But there's always room for improvement, and Astros GM Dana Brown has said repeatedly that the club will be buyers at the trade deadline.
Just this week, Astros insider Michael Schwab posted that Houston has interest in trading for Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., according to sources.
The Astros have identified Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as one of their top targets for a trade, per sources.
It will take a lot to land a player like him, who will be a free agent in 2026, but he would bring a big bat and solve the first base problem.
— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) June 26, 2024
And Schwab has been right about these things before. He was the first to report that the Rangers were trading for Max Scherzer last season.
But this report made us wonder, should upgrading first base be the team's top priority? The club is down to four starting pitchers, and Mauricio Dubon has done a decent job at first since the departure of Jose Abreu.
Plus, dealing with the Blue Jays could get tricky, with former Astros GM James Click in Toronto's front office. We highly doubt he's looking to help the Astos after Jim Crane allegedly pushed him out the door after the 2022 World Series winning season.
And let's not forget, teams like the Yankees have deeper farm systems that could provide the Blue Jays with a bigger haul than Houston. The Astros at a minimum would likely have to trade away a quality prospect or two and player on the roster like Jake Meyers or Chas McCormick.
Oh, and we haven't even discussed the money. Guerrero Jr. is making about $20 million this year, and is under contract next season as well. A move like this would push the Astros over the second luxury tax threshold in all likelihood.
Pitching wins championships
The Astros currently have seven pitchers on the IL, and Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers aren't expected back for another month at the earliest. Justin Verlander is also dealing with a neck injury, with no timetable set for his return.
Not to mention, Spencer Arrighetti and Ronel Blanco have never thrown more than 125 innings in any professional season, according to The Athletic's Chandler Rome.
Which is why we wouldn't be surprised if the interest in Guerrero is a smoke screen, and the Astros are really focused on adding pitching. However, it is fun to imagine him in the middle of the Astros lineup.
Finally, it may be time to have a discussion about how quickly the Astros are bringing pitchers back from injury. Dana Brown has admitted they may have rushed JP France back a little too soon. He, too, is done for the season and expected to have shoulder surgery next week.
This leads us to question if the season-ending injuries to Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy could have been prevented.
Be sure to watch the video above as we break it all down!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And be on the lookout for bonus episodes on Thursdays!
One of the nuggets that came out of Nick Caserio's press conference this week, was his thoughts on the job Bobby Slowik has done as an offensive coordinator. When asked if the team has considered sharing the offensive play calling, Caseiro responded with an emphatic, “absolutely not.”
Caserio went on to praise the job Slowik has done this year, and to say the team's struggles in the second half this season is due to execution.
This stance is consistent with what we've heard from Texans insiders that believe Slowik will be back next season. As much as many Texans fans believe a change at OC could help CJ Stroud, who's shown regression this year, it doesn't appear Slowik is going anywhere.
To be fair, most teams aren't looking to replace their coordinators when they're leading their division and marching toward the postseason for the second straight year.
Number crunching
When comparing Stroud's stats to last season, there is a clear dropoff in 2024. But a lot of that has to do with the addition of Joe Mixon, especially when it comes to touchdowns.
Mixon is third in the NFL with 11 rushing TDs, while Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary only combined for 6 over the entire 2023 season. One could argue the passing offense has regressed, but one could also argue the offense overall is more balanced.
Stroud is still Top 5 in passing yards, heading into this week's games. And even if we account for the bye week, Stroud will still be Top 10 after this week's slate of games.
The most concerning number to keep an eye on is sacks. Only one QB has been sacked more than Stroud, who's been sacked 41 times. CJ's protection has gotten better since Juice Scruggs was moved to guard, and Jarrett Patterson was inserted at center.
If Stroud starts getting hit again at a high level, that may be the one factor that could make the front office rethink their plans at coordinator. However, if the Texans do make a change, we expect them to address their o-line coach before any changes at OC.
Be sure to watch the video above for our full breakdown of the Texans offense, the coaching staff, and our thoughts on how the Azeez Al-Shaair suspension will impact the team.