KEYS TO THE GAME
3 Houston Cougars x-factors that could swing the pendulum in bout with Duke
Mar 28, 2024, 12:05 pm
Houston faces Duke on Friday night. Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images.
After narrowly defeating Texas A&M in overtime (100-95) the Cougars are heading back to the Sweet 16 and will face-off against Duke.
This will be the first time these two basketball powerhouses will play each other in program history, and Houston may have the upper hand thanks to some key players and a defense that can rival any team left in the NCAA Tournament.
Containing Duke’s stars
The Blue Devils defeated both Vermont and James Madison easily in their first two games of the tournament, thanks to some prolific scoring performances from freshman guard Jared McCain and elite play from potential NBA lottery draft pick Kyle Filipowski.
Containing these star players will be the number one priority when it comes to defeating Duke.
The Cougars have one of the highest rated defenses in the country and have multiple players who can slow down Duke’s dynamic duo.
Houston guards LJ Cryer and Jamal Shead are more than capable of handling the defensive assignment on McCain, and Filipowski can be contained by either J’Wan Roberts or Ja’Vier Francis.
Sure the Blue Devils have other players who can score when needed like Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach, but if Houston were to limit the production of the Fililposki/McCain duo and force Duke’s other players to step up, it would give the Cougars a much better chance of securing a victory and advancing to the Elite Eight.
Staying out of foul trouble
Houston’s starters got into major foul trouble early on and it nearly cost them in their previous outing against the Aggies.
Ja’Vier Francis and LJ Cryer fouled out before the start of overtime, and their absence was certainly felt. Guys like Damian Dunn and Mylik Wilson were able to step up, but not having both Francis and Cryer in overtime was nearly detrimental to Houston.
Sophomore forward Emanuel Sharp fouled out in overtime and after hitting a 3-pointer, and Jamal Shead left the game with 18 seconds left.
The Cougars might have lost four starters in their previous outing, but were able to walk away victorious thanks to a clutch free throw from Ryan Elvin, and the team was able to hold the Aggies scoreless in their final few possessions.
Houston has the talent to defeat any team left in the NCAA Tournament, as long as their star players stay out of foul trouble.
Trust the guys that brought you here
Over the last four seasons, the Cougars have been one of the best teams in the country thanks to an elite defense year after year, and head coach Kelvin Sampson finding the perfect players for his system.
Senior guards LJ Cryer and Jamal Shead have developed into one of the best backcourts in the country, and either one of them has the capability to take over a game thanks to their stellar play.
Cryer is Houston’s leading scorer this season (15.5 points per game), and has the ability to get hot at a moment's notice, just as he did against Texas A&M.
Shead has been one of the best players in the country this year, and is the unquestioned leader of this team.
The 21-year-old is a prefect point guard for coach Sampson’s system, as he leads the team in both assists and steals, and is essentially a second coach when he is on the floor.
Shead is one of the best facilitator’s in the nation and does a stellar job of getting all of his teammates involved as well.
Another player who can heavily impact a game is Emanuel Sharp, who scored a career-high 30 points in his previous outing against the Aggies.
Senior J'Wan Roberts has been another key piece to Houston's success this year, and has been arguably the third-best player on the team, behind only the aforementioned duo of Cryer and Shead.
The 22-year-old came into the tournament with some injury concerns, but has looked good in his previous two games.
Roberts played 33 minutes against the Aggies, and was the only starter not to foul out of that game.
Needless to say, the senior forward looks healthy and will be a much-needed scorer/rim protector to have during the NCAA Tournament.
All four of these starters are essential to Houston’s success and provide excellent defense in addition to having the ability to take over a game with ease.
As it currently stands, the Cougars are a 4.5-point favorite to defeat Duke according to most odds. So long as Houston can play up to their standards and their starters stay out of foul trouble, there is reason to believe the Cougars can walk away victorious on Friday night and advance to the Elite Eight.
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The Astros have already been swept in four series this season. They were swept in four series all of last season. As Mexico City says bienvenidos to the Astros this weekend, there are certainly more than a few folks fretting that the Astros are already close to saying adios to playoff hopes. The Astros are not at the point of no return, though one can see it out there on the horizon. It wouldn’t take another month of their garbage level 7-19 performance for the season to be essentially down the drain.
If the Astros were in the American League East, they’d already be ten games out of second place. But they’re not! If in the AL Central they’d be eleven and a half games back of Cleveland. But they’re not! Dozens of teams have rebounded to win divisions from larger deficits much later in the season than the Astros face presently. The Seattle Mariners lead the thus far weak AL West at 13-12. The Astros being six and a half games in arrears of the M’s and six back of the Texas Rangers in late April is far from optimal but nowhere near devastating.
Multiple media outlets have noted how few teams historically have started a season in as stumblebum a fashion as the 2024 Astros and wound up making the playoffs. What every outlet I have seen noting that failed to include: this is just the third season since Major League Baseball added a third Wild Card to each league’s postseason field. So, while 7-19 out of the gate is indisputably awful, it is not the death knell to the extent it has been over generations of MLB.
The issue isn’t where the Astros sit in the standings, it’s that they have played atrocious baseball and aren’t providing reason for optimism that a stark turnaround is imminent. The starting rotation is the best hope. Justin Verlander has made two starts. Framber Valdez rejoins the rotation Sunday. Cristian Javier should be a week or so away. Obviously, Ronel Blanco isn’t going to continue pitching as well as he has through his first four starts. But if he is a good number four starter, that’s fine if the top three coming into the season pitch to reasonably hoped for form.
Hunter Brown simply is not a good big league pitcher. Maybe he someday fulfills his potential, but the data at this point are clear. What can Brown do for you? Not much. Spencer Arrighetti needs better command to be a good big league starter. J.P. France was a revelation over his first 17 starts last season, but since has looked like the guy who posted underwhelming numbers when in the minor leagues. If the Astros wind up with 50-plus starts from Brown/Arrighetti/France their goose will probably be cooked.
The only MLB teams with worse staff earned run averages than the Astros’ horrific 5.07 are the Chicago White Sox (Wait! They have Martin Maldonado!) and Colorado Rockies. At 3-22 the White Sox are on an early pace to post the worst record in the history of Major League Baseball. The Rockies never have a chance to post good pitching stats because of the mile high offensive freak show environment in Denver.
Way to go, Joe
Props to Joe Espada for his conviction in making what he believed to be the right call in pulling Verlander after four and a third innings Thursday at Wrigley Field. Verlander allowed no runs but had reached 95 pitches in just the second outing of the injury-delayed start to his season. Not easy for a rookie manager skippering what has been a Titanic journey thus far to pull a surefire Hall of Famer who was two outs away from qualifying for a win. Many were no doubt poised to destroy Espada had Rafael Montero given up the lead in the fifth. Verlander was angry at being pulled from any chance at his 259th career win. Understood, but the manager’s job is to make the decisions he thinks are in the ballclub’s overall best interest. That Montero and Bryan Abreu combined to blow the lead in the sixth is immaterial.
Then there's the offense…
Six runs total the last four games. Scored more than four runs in just one of the last nine games. Timely hitting largely non-existent.
At last check Alex Bregman still hawks that “Breggy Bomb” salsa. At the plate, he’s been mostly stuck in “Breggy Bum” mode, including zero bombs (home runs). 23 games played without a homer is Bregman’s longest drought since 2017 when he had separate 35 and 27 game stretches between dingers. Bregman has a history of slow first months of the season, but never anything as inept as he’s posted thus far. A litany of lazy fly balls, infield pops, and routine grounders add up to a .216 batting average and feeble .566 OPS. Reference point: Martin Maldonado’s worst OPS season with the Astros was .573. If Bregman was a young guy handed a starting job coming out of spring training, if a viable alternative were available, there’s a chance he’d be a Sugar Land Space Cowboy right now. Bregman’s track record makes it a decent bet that he winds up with decent numbers, but nothing special. Certainly nothing remotely worth the 10 years 300 million dollars or whatever Bregman and agent Scott Boras intend(ed) to seek on the free agent market this coming offseason. Two hits Thursday did get Bregman to the 1000 hit plateau for his career.
Despite arriving south of the border with his batting average at .346, even Jose Altuve has his warts. With runners in scoring position, Altuve has one hit this season. One. In 16 at bats. Small sample size, but it counts. That’s .063. Yordan Alvarez has been no great shakes either, five for 24 (.208) with RISP.
One wonders what would happen if the Astros got a hold of and “lost” Jose Abreu’s passport/visa this weekend in Mexico City and Abreu couldn’t get back into the U.S. after the two-game set with the Rockies.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.