KEYS TO THE GAME

3 Houston Cougars x-factors that could swing the pendulum in bout with Duke

Houston Cougars Kelvin Sampson
Houston faces Duke on Friday night. Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images.

After narrowly defeating Texas A&M in overtime (100-95) the Cougars are heading back to the Sweet 16 and will face-off against Duke.

This will be the first time these two basketball powerhouses will play each other in program history, and Houston may have the upper hand thanks to some key players and a defense that can rival any team left in the NCAA Tournament.

Containing Duke’s stars

The Blue Devils defeated both Vermont and James Madison easily in their first two games of the tournament, thanks to some prolific scoring performances from freshman guard Jared McCain and elite play from potential NBA lottery draft pick Kyle Filipowski.

Containing these star players will be the number one priority when it comes to defeating Duke.

The Cougars have one of the highest rated defenses in the country and have multiple players who can slow down Duke’s dynamic duo.

Houston guards LJ Cryer and Jamal Shead are more than capable of handling the defensive assignment on McCain, and Filipowski can be contained by either J’Wan Roberts or Ja’Vier Francis.

Sure the Blue Devils have other players who can score when needed like Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach, but if Houston were to limit the production of the Fililposki/McCain duo and force Duke’s other players to step up, it would give the Cougars a much better chance of securing a victory and advancing to the Elite Eight.

Staying out of foul trouble

Houston’s starters got into major foul trouble early on and it nearly cost them in their previous outing against the Aggies.

Ja’Vier Francis and LJ Cryer fouled out before the start of overtime, and their absence was certainly felt. Guys like Damian Dunn and Mylik Wilson were able to step up, but not having both Francis and Cryer in overtime was nearly detrimental to Houston.

Sophomore forward Emanuel Sharp fouled out in overtime and after hitting a 3-pointer, and Jamal Shead left the game with 18 seconds left.

The Cougars might have lost four starters in their previous outing, but were able to walk away victorious thanks to a clutch free throw from Ryan Elvin, and the team was able to hold the Aggies scoreless in their final few possessions.

Houston has the talent to defeat any team left in the NCAA Tournament, as long as their star players stay out of foul trouble.

Trust the guys that brought you here

Over the last four seasons, the Cougars have been one of the best teams in the country thanks to an elite defense year after year, and head coach Kelvin Sampson finding the perfect players for his system.

Senior guards LJ Cryer and Jamal Shead have developed into one of the best backcourts in the country, and either one of them has the capability to take over a game thanks to their stellar play.

Cryer is Houston’s leading scorer this season (15.5 points per game), and has the ability to get hot at a moment's notice, just as he did against Texas A&M.

Shead has been one of the best players in the country this year, and is the unquestioned leader of this team.

The 21-year-old is a prefect point guard for coach Sampson’s system, as he leads the team in both assists and steals, and is essentially a second coach when he is on the floor.

Shead is one of the best facilitator’s in the nation and does a stellar job of getting all of his teammates involved as well.

Another player who can heavily impact a game is Emanuel Sharp, who scored a career-high 30 points in his previous outing against the Aggies.

Senior J'Wan Roberts has been another key piece to Houston's success this year, and has been arguably the third-best player on the team, behind only the aforementioned duo of Cryer and Shead.

The 22-year-old came into the tournament with some injury concerns, but has looked good in his previous two games.

Roberts played 33 minutes against the Aggies, and was the only starter not to foul out of that game.

Needless to say, the senior forward looks healthy and will be a much-needed scorer/rim protector to have during the NCAA Tournament.

All four of these starters are essential to Houston’s success and provide excellent defense in addition to having the ability to take over a game with ease.

As it currently stands, the Cougars are a 4.5-point favorite to defeat Duke according to most odds. So long as Houston can play up to their standards and their starters stay out of foul trouble, there is reason to believe the Cougars can walk away victorious on Friday night and advance to the Elite Eight.

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Houston must improve in close games down the stretch and into October. Composite Getty Image.

While holding one’s breath that for a change the Astros aren’t publicly grossly underestimating an injury’s severity with Jose Altuve having missed the last game and a half with “right side discomfort…”

The Astros averting a sweep vs. Oakland Thursday was in no way a must-win, but getting the win allowed a mini sigh of relief. The Astros are NOT in the process of choking. Could they collapse? Sure that’s possible. Also possible is that they’ve just been in one more ebb phase in a season of ebb and flow. They certainly have left the door ajar for the Seattle Mariners to swipe the American League West, but with the M's simply not looking good enough to walk through that door the Astros remain in commanding position. The Astros made a spectacular charge from 10 games behind to grab the division lead. But there was a lot of runway left when the Astros awoke June 19th 10 games in arrears. September 3 the Astros arose with a comfy six game lead over the M’s. With Seattle blowing a 4-1 eighth inning lead in a 5-4 loss to the Texas Rangers Thursday night, heading into Friday night the Astros' advantage is back up to four and a half games despite the Astros having lost six of their last nine games and having gone just 10-12 over their last 22 games. Not a good stretch but nothing freefalling about it.

While the Mariners have the remainder of their four-game series vs. the dead in the water Rangers this weekend, the Astros play three at the lousy Los Angeles Angels. The Astros should take advantage of the Halos, with whom they also have a four-game series at Minute Maid Park next weekend. Since the All-Star break, only the White Sox have a worse record than the Angels 19-31 mark (the White Sox are 6-43 post-break!). Two of the three starting pitchers the Angels will throw this weekend will be making their third big league starts. To begin next week the Astros are in San Diego for a three-game-set against a Padres club which is flat better than the Astros right now. That does not mean the Astros can’t take that series. The Mariners meanwhile will be still at home, for three vs. the Yankees.

There are some brutal Astros’ statistics that largely explain why this is merely a pretty good team and not more. As I have noted before, it is a fallacy that the best teams are usually superior in close games. But the Astros have been pathetic in close games. There used to be a joke made about Sammy Sosa that he could blow you out, but he couldn’t beat you. Meaning being that when the score was 6-1, 8-3 or the like Sammy would pad his stats with home runs and runs batted in galore. But in a tight game, don’t count on Sammy to come through very often. In one-run games the Astros are 15-26, in two-run games they are 10-14. In games that were tied after seven innings they are 3-12. In extra innings they are 5-10. The good news is, all those realities mean nothing when the postseason starts. So long as you’re in the postseason. In games decided by three or more runs the Astros have pummeled the opposition to the tune of 53 wins and 28 losses.

General Manager Dana Brown isn’t an Executive of the Year candidate, but overall he’s been fine this season. Without the Yusei Kikuchi trade deadline acquisition the Astros would likely barely lead the AL West. Brown’s biggest offseason get, Victor Caratini, has done very solid work in his part-time role. Though he has tapered off notably the last month and change, relief pitcher Tayler Scott was a fabulous signing. Scrap heap pickups Ben Gamel, Jason Heyward, and Kaleb Ort have all made contributions. However…

Dana. Dana! You made yourself look very silly with comments this week somewhat scoffing at people being concerned with or dismissive of Justin Verlander’s ability to be a meaningful playoff contributor. Brown re-sang a ridiculous past tune, the “check the back of his baseball card” baloney. Dana, did you mean like the back of Jose Abreu’s baseball card? Perhaps Brown has never seen those brokerage ads in which at the end in fine print and/or in rapidly spoken words “past performance is no guarantee of future results” always must be included. Past (overall career) performance as indicative of future results for a 41-year-old pitcher who has frequently looked terrible and has twice missed chunks of this season to two different injuries is absurd. That Verlander could find it in time is plausible. That of course he’ll find it? Absolutely not. His next two starts are slotted to be against the feeble Angels, so even if the results are better, it won’t mean “JV IS BACK!”

Presuming they hold on to win the division, the Astros’ recent sub-middling play means they have only very faint hope of avoiding having to play the best-of-three Wild Card Series. Barring a dramatic turn over the regular season’s final fortnight, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are the obvious choices to start games one and two. If there is a game three, it is one game do or die. Only a fool would think Verlander the right man for that assignment. No one should expect Brown to say “Yeah, JV is likely finished as a frontline starter.” But going to the “back of the baseball card” line was laughable. Father Time gets us all eventually. Verlander has an uphill climb extricating himself from Father Time’s grasp.

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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