SWEET 16

Behind the madness: Essential Sweet 16 breakdown

Houston Cougars Jamal Shead
The Coogs are back in action Friday night. Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images.

Sixteen may be sweet, but it isn’t the only relevant number as the NCAA Tournament heads into the regional semifinals.

Here are some other numbers worth knowing for each team. These statistics will help you learn more about each of the remaining teams and could explain how some of them got this far.

EAST REGION

UCONN: In UConn’s second-round victory over Northwestern, Donovan Clingan became just the third player in tournament history to get 14 points, 14 rebounds and eight blocks in a game. The others to do it were Hakeem Olajuwon for Houston in 1983 and David Robinson for Navy in 1986. The blocks also were the most ever by a UConn player in a tournament game.

SAN DIEGO STATE: The Aztecs’ Sweet 16 matchup with defending national champion UConn will mark the fourth time that two teams have faced each other in the tournament a year after meeting in the final. The losing team from the championship won the rematch in one of the three previous instances, when Duke beat UNLV in a 1991 semifinal. Cincinnati won two straight championship games over Ohio State in 1961-62. Florida beat UCLA in the 2006 championship game and in a 2007 semifinal.

ILLINOIS: Illinois has won six in a row, and Terrence Shannon Jr. has scored at least 25 points in each of those games. The 6-foot-6 guard has averaged 30.5 points and has shot 52.8% (56 of 106) from the floor during that stretch. He also shown an uncanny knack for drawing fouls during the streak. Over his last five games, Shannon has gone 51 of 58 on free-throw attempts.

IOWA STATE: Iowa State is allowing just 61.2 points per game to rank fourth among all Division I teams in scoring defense. Since falling 73-65 to Houston on Feb. 19, the Cyclones haven’t allowed any of their last 10 opponents to exceed 65 points. The Cyclones next face Illinois, which ranks ninth in points per game (84.6) and has averaged 91.3 points over its last four contests.

WEST REGION

ALABAMA: Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada were the first set of Division I teammates since 1996-97 to both have at least 410 points, 125 assists, 120 rebounds, 50 3-point baskets and 40 steals during the regular season. Sears is averaging 21.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.7 steals. Estrada has 13.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.7 steals per game.

NORTH CAROLINA: Armando Bacot had seven straight tournament double-doubles and six consecutive tourney games with at least 15 rebounds before he ended up with 18 points and seven boards in a second-round victory over Michigan State. His seven straight NCAA double-doubles matched Tim Duncan and Olajuwon for the NCAA record.

ARIZONA: Arizona’s first-round triumph over Long Beach State marked the 19th time this season the Wildcats had five different players score in double figures. No other Division I team had that many games this season in which five different players had at least 10 points.

CLEMSON: Each of Clemson’s first two tournament opponents has shot below 40% against the Tigers. Clemson won its first-round game by limiting New Mexico to 29.7% shooting, the lowest percentage the Tigers had ever allowed in an NCAA tourney game. Clemson now faces Arizona, which shot 52.8% in its second-round victory over Dayton.

MIDWEST REGION

CREIGHTON: Baylor Scheierman is the first Division I men’s player in history to have at least 2,000 career points, 1,000 rebounds, 500 assists and 300 3-point baskets. Scheierman, who is in his second season at Creighton after playing three seasons at South Dakota State, has 2,208 points, 1,250 rebounds, 578 assists and 352 3-pointers.

TENNESSEE: Tennessee is making its 10th Sweet 16 appearance – including its seventh in the last 18 years – but the Volunteers have never reached the Final Four and earned their lone regional final berth in 2010.

GONZAGA: Gonzaga is in the Sweet 16 for the ninth straight time, the longest active streak of any Division I team. Going back to 1975 – the first year that all teams had to win at least one game to reach the Sweet 16 – the record for consecutive Sweet 16 appearances is owned by North Carolina with 13 straight from 1981-93.

PURDUE: Zach Edey is the first player since Kareen Abdul-Jabbar (then known as Lew Alcindor) in 1968 to have at least 50 points and 35 rebounds while shooting 65% from the field in his first two games of an NCAA Tournament. Edey has shot 67.9% (19 of 28) and has totaled 53 points and 35 rebounds in victories over Grambling State and Utah State.

SOUTH REGION

DUKE: Jared McCain has gone 10 of 17 from 3-point range through the first two rounds. In the Blue Devils’ second-round blowout of James Madison, McCain became the first freshman to score at least 30 points without committing a turnover in an NCAA Tournament game since the event expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

HOUSTON: The Cougars showcased their depth by surviving a second-round matchup with Texas A&M in overtime even after four of their five starters fouled out. They became the first team to win an NCAA game while having at least four players foul out since 1987, when UTEP overcame foul trouble to beat Arizona.

MARQUETTE: Marquette owns a 75-29 record under coach Shaka Smart despite posting a negative rebound margin in each of his three seasons. The Golden Eagles have been outrebounded in each of their last eight games but have gone 5-3. They’re getting outrebounded by 3 boards per game this season. The only other Sweet 16 team with a negative rebound margin is North Carolina State (minus-0.8), which faces Marquette on Friday.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE: Mohamed Diarra has 6.4 points and 7.7 rebounds per game this season, but he’s averaged 11.7 points and 13.5 rebounds over his last six. Michael O’Connell scored in double digits three times and totaled 14 3-point baskets in 31 regular-season games. He’s reached double figures in six of seven postseason games and has gone 12 of 22 from 3-point range during that stretch.

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Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

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