How latest news impacts premier free agent's chances of landing with Texans
DON'T LOOK NOW!
26 February
DON'T LOOK NOW!
The Houston Texans are coming off a breakout year which included a star being born in QB CJ Stroud, an AFC South championship, and a Wild Card round beat down of the Cleveland Browns.
The interest in the Texans hasn't been this high in years, and some top free agents are eyeing the Texans as their next landing spot.
Giants running back Saquon Barkley recently followed several Texans players on social media. Which should come as no surprise, who wouldn't want to join Stroud and the surging young Texans?
KPRC'S Aaron Wilson reported on Sunday night that Barkley's interest in joining the team is more than hitting like on social media. He's been in contract with Stroud and expressed an interest in playing in Houston (jump to the 3:45 mark in the video below).
#HoustonTexans #NFLCombine @KPRC2 discussion on Sports Sunday with @KPRC2RandyMc @KPRC2Ari pic.twitter.com/dMCJWNliBq
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) February 26, 2024
The real question is, should the Texans want Barkley? While he's still a quality running back, he's not the same player as he was before some significant injuries.
He averaged below four yards a carry last season, but as Craig points out in the first video, his offensive line was the worst in football, according to PFF.
In fact, they only had 1 out of 5 players that were considered starting caliber. The Texans had 4.
So that alone should be working in his favor to bounce back this season.
The elephant in the room
The size of the contract he will command is the real issue. PFF projects he could be looking for a deal in the range of 3-years, $31 million. With him being 27 years old, the length of the contract does make sense.
Plus, it was announced on Friday the NFL is raising the salary cap to $255.4 million, an increase over 13%. That puts the Texans 7th in cap space per PFF.
The Texans have plenty of money to spend but also a lot of holes to fill on defense. The other thing to consider is whether Barkley is the top back on the market.
This offseason stands in contrast to 2023, when Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard received franchise tags. This offseason, it appears no RBs will be tagged, making this one of the finest and deepest RB classes in the history of free agency.https://t.co/xmxS91X5w9
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 26, 2024
Adam Schefter is reporting no backs will receive the franchise tag, so Houston could have the pick of the litter in theory between Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, and Tony Pollard.
And bringing Devin Singletary back on a more affordable contract is also a possibility. We will learn a lot about the Texans backfield over the next two weeks when the legal tampering period begins on March 11.
Be sure to let us know what you would do in the comments!
There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.
Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.
The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.
But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.
The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.
Astros pitcher hires a new agent
Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.
But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.
With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.
However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.
Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).
Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.
I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.
There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?
Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.
If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.
One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.
Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.
It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.
The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.
Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?
After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.
And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.
So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.
Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.
Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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