ROLL THE DICE?
Making sense of the extreme Vegas projections for Houston Texans
Aug 18, 2022, 6:44 pm
Looking to bet on the Texans? Composite image by Brandon Strange.
New regime, new philosophy, new depth chart for Houston Texans
It's football time in Houston (horrible song) and everywhere else. So it's go time for football analysts to offer their predictions for the Texans 2022 season, often giving their picks, one by one, for all 17 games. Hey, it fills a segment on the air.
Most of the crystal ball gazers predict a fight to the finish, down to the wire, who'll come in last place in the AFC South? The Texans are headed into the season with their third head coach in three years and if they stay focused and catch some lucky breaks, they can top last year's four wins and once again narrowly escape last place. The leading oddsmakers don't hold out much hope, however.
Vegas favors the Indianapolis Colts (-140) in the AFC South by a slim margin over the Tennessee Titans (+170). Next are the Jacksonville Jaguars at a distant (+800). If you squint and look through the Hubble Telescope you'll find the Texans at +2200. There isn't a team anywhere in the NFL with worse odds of winning their division. Early forecasts have the Texans as underdogs in all 17 games on their schedule. As bad luck will have it, the lone must-see game will be Dec. 4 against the Cleveland Browns, when Deshaun Watson is free to visit Houston for his first action of the year. Will the troubled Browns quarterback be cheered by Houston fans for his five seasons of service, or will be jeered for, well, the obvious? I'm betting on jeered but you never know fans.
Most of the analyst sites offer their reasons why the Texans face another uphill season. It's the usual yadda yadda of a revolving door of coaches, too many new faces and a general lack of talent. There are signs of hope - finally a calming influence of respected, experienced head coach Lovie Smith, an improved defense and, basically, there's nowhere to go but up.
Here, though, is the most telling comment about the Texans' prospects. It comes from The Athletic, and curiously it's listed under the heading of: "If everything goes right for the Texans in 2022." Goes right?
"My model projects (Davis) Mills as one of the worst starting quarterbacks in football this season."
Gee, stop flattering the Texans. If "one of the worst starting quarterbacks" is a bright spot, you can imagine what's under "If everything goes wrong." Here's a sample:
"The team will be picking at the top of the 2023 NFL Draft and will be deciding between Bryce Young and CJ Stroud." In other words, back to square one, rebuilding from a rebuild, again.
Still, even if the wheels fall off completely, there's money to be made with the Texans.
I used to think that Flo from Progressive, the GEICO gecko and Mattress Mack ran a lot of commercials on sports programming, but with NFL Week One 'round the corner, the airwaves are filled with spots for online gambling sites ("and make it rain") and those caffeine-overdosed "sports advisors" who want you to pay for their expert betting tips "guaranteed to win" unless they lose.
"We have a documented 85-percent win rate on our Monday Night Football selections when an east coast team plays in the Mountain Time Zone after losing the week before on natural turf during a lunar eclipse! Send us your money. If you lose, don't worry, we'll send you four weeks more of losing picks."
Let me tell you about these guys. First there's the old common sense bottom line, if they're so good at picking football games, why don't they just bet the games with their own money? Then there's a trick, and I fell for this one, "Call us for a free pick on a recorded message." The idea is, if Jupiter aligns with Krypton and their pick wins, maybe you'll start paying for their "inner circle" selections.
I called, endured the sales pitch, and got the pick. It's a recorded message so I didn't have to talk to one of their hustlers in a boiler room. We're done, our relationship is over, right? Not so fast, fish. When you call for their free selection on a recorded message, they now have your number on their robocall Rolodex. You have a better chance of driving into a $39 oil change place and driving out for under $200. The daily calls start the next day. It's always a voice straight out of a black and white gangster movie.
"Hey Ken, what's up? You doin' OK? You making money this season? You need any help?"
Do I know you? Remember that song, You've Got a Friend? A visiting nurse service doesn't check up on you as often as a gambling tout service. What's the difference between a football gambling service and a pit bull? Eventually a pit bull lets go.
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How Jim Crane responds to this could be Astros most important moment
May 8, 2024, 11:25 am
Alex Verdugo homered and tied a career high with four RBIs, powering the New York Yankees past Justin Verlander and the skidding Houston Astros 10-3 on Tuesday night.
Anthony Volpe and Giancarlo Stanton also went deep off Verlander as the Yankees won their fourth straight. They've totaled 20 runs in the last three games after scoring just eight in a five-game span that ended Saturday.
Volpe finished with three RBIs and Juan Soto had three hits.
“Obviously, you’re not going to run out offensive nights like this every night, especially against a guy like Justin,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “But they are capable of that. They’ve got balance.”
Verdugo, batting cleanup between Aaron Judge and Stanton, accounted for New York’s first four runs with a three-run homer in the first and an RBI single in the third against Verlander (1-1).
“Sometimes it’s a little bit humbling when you’ve got Judge up there looking down at me and then you’ve got Stanton back right behind me,” a grinning Verdugo said. “I’m like the small guy in the group. But honestly, man, I love it. I really do. I feel like I add enough contact in there that I can either move over some guys (or) get the job done.”
The four-RBI game was the second of the season for Verdugo and fifth of his career. He also made a nice sliding catch in left field of a sinking liner by Jeremy Peña to end the sixth.
“We’re seeing the kind of player he is (on) both sides of the ball,” Boone said. “He’s been excellent. He’s been clutch.”
Verlander lasted five innings and gave up seven runs — the second-most he’s allowed in 37 regular-season and postseason starts versus the Yankees. He yielded eight runs in Detroit’s 13-9 loss on Sept. 1, 2008.
The three-time Cy Young Award winner permitted eight hits and walked three Tuesday night. The 41-year-old Verlander, who missed the first three weeks of the season recovering from right shoulder inflammation, has allowed 27 baserunners (17 hits, 10 walks) over 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts.
“If I’m being brutally honest with myself, the last couple games, probably in particularly, the walks showed me I was a little off,” Verlander said. “And sometimes it takes you facing a team that knows you intimately, and vice versa, to send you back to the drawing board. I think these guys showed me today that I’ve got some work to do.”
Volpe hit a two-run homer in the fourth. Stanton led off the fifth with a 421-foot drive to left field that was clocked at 118.8 mph off the bat. Judge and Jon Berti also had run-scoring singles for the Yankees.
Luis Gil (3-1) allowed just one hit — Kyle Tucker’s first-inning homer — and walked four with five strikeouts over six innings.
“Definitely was a point in the game where I told myself I’ve got to keep this game right here,” Gil said through a translator.
Trey Cabbage had a two-run single in the ninth for the Astros, who matched a season low with three hits. Houston has lost three straight to fall to 12-23 — tied for the fifth-worst record through 35 games in franchise history.
“Pleased about our walks. We walked six times, something that we’ve been trying to get better at — be more selective,” manager Joe Espada said. “We just couldn’t get that much offensively.”
TRAINER’S ROOM
Astros: DH Yordan Alvarez crumpled to the ground in pain after fouling a ball off his left leg in the third. He was lifted for a pinch hitter in the eighth. ... RHP Cristian Javier (neck), who threw 3 1/3 innings Saturday in a rehab start for Double-A Corpus Christi, will return to the Houston rotation this weekend. … RHP Jose Urquidy (right forearm) threw to hitters and is expected to begin a rehab assignment soon.
Yankees: RHP Gerrit Cole (right elbow) threw in the bullpen for the second time since he was injured in mid-March. … INF Oswald Peraza (right shoulder) began a rehab assignment by going 2 for 3 with a home run for Class A Tampa. Boone said Peraza, yet to play this season, will need a spring training-like ramp up of minor league games before returning to the Yankees. … RHP Nick Burdi (right hip) struck out all three batters he faced in his first rehab appearance for Triple-A Scranton. … INF DJ LeMahieu (right foot) is feeling better and participating in baseball activities. Boone said LeMahieu will travel with the team for this weekend’s series against Tampa Bay and could get at-bats at the Yankees’ minor league complex in Florida.
UP NEXT
The three-game series continues Wednesday night, when Yankees LHP Carlos Rodón (2-2, 3.68 ERA) is scheduled to face RHP Spencer Arrighetti (0-3, 8.27).