ROLL THE DICE?
Making sense of the extreme Vegas projections for Houston Texans
Aug 18, 2022, 6:44 pm
ROLL THE DICE?
It's football time in Houston (horrible song) and everywhere else. So it's go time for football analysts to offer their predictions for the Texans 2022 season, often giving their picks, one by one, for all 17 games. Hey, it fills a segment on the air.
Most of the crystal ball gazers predict a fight to the finish, down to the wire, who'll come in last place in the AFC South? The Texans are headed into the season with their third head coach in three years and if they stay focused and catch some lucky breaks, they can top last year's four wins and once again narrowly escape last place. The leading oddsmakers don't hold out much hope, however.
Vegas favors the Indianapolis Colts (-140) in the AFC South by a slim margin over the Tennessee Titans (+170). Next are the Jacksonville Jaguars at a distant (+800). If you squint and look through the Hubble Telescope you'll find the Texans at +2200. There isn't a team anywhere in the NFL with worse odds of winning their division. Early forecasts have the Texans as underdogs in all 17 games on their schedule. As bad luck will have it, the lone must-see game will be Dec. 4 against the Cleveland Browns, when Deshaun Watson is free to visit Houston for his first action of the year. Will the troubled Browns quarterback be cheered by Houston fans for his five seasons of service, or will be jeered for, well, the obvious? I'm betting on jeered but you never know fans.
Most of the analyst sites offer their reasons why the Texans face another uphill season. It's the usual yadda yadda of a revolving door of coaches, too many new faces and a general lack of talent. There are signs of hope - finally a calming influence of respected, experienced head coach Lovie Smith, an improved defense and, basically, there's nowhere to go but up.
Here, though, is the most telling comment about the Texans' prospects. It comes from The Athletic, and curiously it's listed under the heading of: "If everything goes right for the Texans in 2022." Goes right?
"My model projects (Davis) Mills as one of the worst starting quarterbacks in football this season."
Gee, stop flattering the Texans. If "one of the worst starting quarterbacks" is a bright spot, you can imagine what's under "If everything goes wrong." Here's a sample:
"The team will be picking at the top of the 2023 NFL Draft and will be deciding between Bryce Young and CJ Stroud." In other words, back to square one, rebuilding from a rebuild, again.
Still, even if the wheels fall off completely, there's money to be made with the Texans.
I used to think that Flo from Progressive, the GEICO gecko and Mattress Mack ran a lot of commercials on sports programming, but with NFL Week One 'round the corner, the airwaves are filled with spots for online gambling sites ("and make it rain") and those caffeine-overdosed "sports advisors" who want you to pay for their expert betting tips "guaranteed to win" unless they lose.
"We have a documented 85-percent win rate on our Monday Night Football selections when an east coast team plays in the Mountain Time Zone after losing the week before on natural turf during a lunar eclipse! Send us your money. If you lose, don't worry, we'll send you four weeks more of losing picks."
Let me tell you about these guys. First there's the old common sense bottom line, if they're so good at picking football games, why don't they just bet the games with their own money? Then there's a trick, and I fell for this one, "Call us for a free pick on a recorded message." The idea is, if Jupiter aligns with Krypton and their pick wins, maybe you'll start paying for their "inner circle" selections.
I called, endured the sales pitch, and got the pick. It's a recorded message so I didn't have to talk to one of their hustlers in a boiler room. We're done, our relationship is over, right? Not so fast, fish. When you call for their free selection on a recorded message, they now have your number on their robocall Rolodex. You have a better chance of driving into a $39 oil change place and driving out for under $200. The daily calls start the next day. It's always a voice straight out of a black and white gangster movie.
"Hey Ken, what's up? You doin' OK? You making money this season? You need any help?"
Do I know you? Remember that song, You've Got a Friend? A visiting nurse service doesn't check up on you as often as a gambling tout service. What's the difference between a football gambling service and a pit bull? Eventually a pit bull lets go.
Sunday night matchups don't get much exciting than this, as the Houston Texans host the Detroit Lions in prime-time at NRG.
The Lions come into this game on a six-game winning streak looking every bit of the best team in football. Houston on the other hand has lost two of their last three games with a struggling offense unable to protect their quarterback.
CJ Stroud has only one passing touchdown over this span, and is clearly having trouble adjusting to life without Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins.
If Houston is going to come away with an upset victory, they will need big performances from Tank Dell and Joe Mixon. After catching 4 passes against the Colts two weeks ago, Mixon not only failed to catch a single pass against the Jets, but he wasn't even targeted.
Considering the Texans' offensive line issues, choosing not to use Mixon as a pass catcher is hard to fathom. Especially since he and Dell are the team's top 2 playmakers.
What's working in the Texans' favor?
They play this game at home, where they are undefeated this season. A lot of the team's protection issues have popped up on the road, so communication should be easier for the offense on their home turf.
Bulls on Parade
We have good news and bad news about the defense this week. On the positive side, Azeez Al-Shaair and Jimmy Ward have returned to practice. If they're able to contribute on Sunday night, that would give the defense a lift.
And now for the bad news. Will Anderson has yet to practice this week after rolling his ankle in the Jets game. If he is unable to practice on Friday, it's hard to imagine he'll be active against Detroit.
X-factors
The Texans have to show some improvement on the offensive line this week.
Houston must lean on Joe Mixon again, as Nico Collins isn't expected to play.
Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the best receivers in the league, and he does most of his damage from the slot. If the Texans continue to deploy Jalen Pitre against premier receivers in man coverage, St. Brown is going to light up the scoreboard.
What would a win over the Lions mean to Houston?
The Texans are no longer considered a true championship contender because of their losses to the Packers, Vikings, and Jets. In fact, the Bills are the only team with a winning record that the Texans have beaten.
An upset win over the streaking Lions would change that narrative.
What does Vegas think?
The Lions are currently favored by 3.5 and the total is set at 49 points.
Don't miss the full preview of Texans-Lions in the video above!
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