RIGHTING WRONGS

How a tough schedule and mistakes have cost the Texans

The Texans have another tough opponent on Sunday. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

When Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay Packers step foot inside NRG Stadium on Sunday, it will mark the end to a brutal seven-week stretch for the Houston Texans.

After they opened the season against the Super Bowl champions, the Texans went down a trajectory where they faced four MVP quarterbacks — three of which with Super Bowl titles — and three teams currently leading their respective divisions in six of their first seven games.

The outcome led Houston to a 1-5 record on the season, with the likelihood of adding an extra game in the loss column following Sunday's contest. The Texans have not been the typical sub .500 team despite what the record might show. According to cornerback Bradley Roby, it has been simple mistakes that have prevented the team from adding a few more wins on the season.

"Every time I look at it, it's what we're doing," Roby said. "It's us messing up, or making an M.A., or not being aligned right. It's little things. It's not like we're just going out and getting killed. It's little things we're not doing or adjusting to that's causing losses."

Roby said during his press conference on Thursday that it only takes four or five plays to decide the outcome of an NFL game. But in Houston's case, perhaps just one or two. The Texans have come a play or two away from recording a victory over several of their opponents this season.

In the game against the Titans, the general belief is that Romeo Crennel's failed two-point conversion is what led the Texans to their fifth loss in six tries.

Although Crennel's decision had a significant impact on the final results, Derrick Henry's 94-yard touchdown drive was more demoralizing to the Texans — who were ahead by two entering the fourth quarter. With less than 10 seconds left in regulation, Ryan Tannehill connected with A.J. Brown on a seven-yard touchdown pass to send the game into overtime.

Had they got one of the two stops, the Texans would have come out of Nissan Stadium victorious against their AFC South counterparts.

Three weeks prior in the loss to the Steelers, had the Texans prevented James Conner from finding his way into the end zone late in the fourth quarter, Houston would have recorded their first win of the season inside Heinz Field Stadium in Pittsburgh.

"If we have an opportunity to go out there and win the game and end it right there, then I would do that 100 percent of the time," Tim Kelly said when looking back on the failed two-point conversion against the Titans. "I knew our guys would go out there and execute. Two inches more to the left and I think we're having a different conversation today."

Against Rogers, it is going to be critical for Houston to limit the number of mistakes in an attempt to pull off an upset. In his 15th season, the two-time league MVP winner has aged like fine wine (2011 & 2014). With a QBR of 86.1, Rogers has recorded 1,374 yards with a 13-2 touchdown to interception ratio thus far this season.

"It's my first time going against him, so it's going to be dope just to see him in live-action," Deshaun Watson said. "He's definitely a guy I love to watch, I've been watching since I was young. It's definitely going to be fun to compete with him. We're going to have to score a lot of points because that's what he's going to do. We've got to continue pushing forward. It's going to be fun."

A victory against one of the league's top teams would not only improve their appalling record to 2-5, but it gives the Texans a reason to be optimistic coming out of the bye week with a favorable schedule.

Starting against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9, the Texans' remaining schedule is nowhere near as challenging as their first seven games. They will only face one former league MVP in Cam Newton come Week 11 against the Patriots, and a Super Bowl-winning quarterback in Nick Foles during their Week 14 match against the Bears. As of now, only four of Houston's next nine opponents possess a winning record coming out of the bye.

Can an easier schedule lead to a path where Houston becomes the fourth team in league history to make the playoffs after a 1-5 start? It's possible. But it has to start with the Texans minimizing their on-field mistakes. It's a change that has to begin Sunday against a future Hall of Famer on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage.

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The Astros are utilizing a 6-man rotation. Composite Getty Image.

The Astros should schedule an Old-Timers Game, if not annually maybe every other year. Only the Yankees have regularly played Old Timers Games and it’s a highlight in the Bronx every season. The Astros have plenty enough history to welcome back an ample number of guys to make for a fabulous event. Maybe they could tie it into their now annual Hall of Fame Weekend. Anyway, don’t you feel that if Jose Altuve took part in an Old Timers Game in 2050 he’d bang out a couple of hits, and then if the Astros played him in the regular game he’d line one more hit somehow, at age 60?

After missing the first 43 games of the season while recovering from his broken thumb, Altuve went 0 for four in his first game back, but has since been generally fantastic with his OPS through nine games played at 1.013. It won’t stay that high, but Altuve is a direly needed upgrade to the Astros’ offense which has been utterly mediocre. Offense is the reason the Astros continue to look up at the Texas Rangers in the American League West. The Rangers’ offense has been fantastic, outscoring the Astros by a whopping 100 runs through the first third of the season.

As the regular season entered its middle third this week, the Astros are in the middle of playing a game in 17 consecutive days. It’s their longest stretch of the season without an off day. They are inserting Ronel Blanco as a sixth starting pitcher in the rotation for a couple of turns. The point of mixing in a sixth starter isn’t that the Astros are teeming with guys who belong in a big league rotation. The 29-year-old Blanco is not a notable prospect. This is about lightening the load a little on two guys: Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown.

In becoming a rotation mainstay last season, Javier blew past his previous biggest season workload by nearly 50 innings. He’s on pace to go another 25 innings beyond that this year without even accounting for the playoffs. Hunter Brown last year set his professional high with 130 innings pitched encompassing work with the Space Cowboys and Astros. Brown is on pace for about 170 innings this regular season. That’s a significant jump, and of course the Astros are hoping for another postseason of multiple rounds. Javier, Brown, and Framber Valdez are the three most critical pitchers on the staff, and the Astros hope they remain healthily so for several more years.

Lance McCullers’s latest recovery setback makes his plight increasingly sad. Well, except for him on payday. The odds now lopsidedly favor McCullers never again pitching a near fully healthy and effective season. His only one to date was 2021 (until he broke down in the playoffs), the year before his five year 85 million dollar contract kicked in. McCullers pulls down 17 mil this year (And again next year. And in 2025. And 2026), exactly two and a half times what Framber Valdez makes. I reckon Framber’s representation is aware of this, as it is of the five year 63 million dollar deal the Astros struck with Cristian Javier. Framber is more than three years older than Javier, but has been better, and can hit free agency after the 2025 season, the same time Javier could have gone to market.

Timing isn’t everything but it darn sure can matter. The Astros’ two best relief pitchers through May were Hector Neris and Phil Maton. Neris enters June with a 1.19 earned run average, Maton even better with a teeny-weeny 0.68 ERA. Maton has been especially amazing, given that last year while not pitching very well he posted his career best ERA at 3.84. His 2022 ended ignominiously when after giving up a hit to his brother Nick in the regular season finale, Phil took the ding-a-ling of the week award by breaking his pitching hand punching his locker, sidelining him for the postseason. The Hurt Locker won the Academy Award for Best Picture in 2010. Now Maton is up for Best Pitcher (per inning worked). Both Neris and Maton were James Click acquisitions. Both become free agents after this season.

Up next

Four games with the Angels at Minute Maid Park through the weekend mean the amazing Shohei Ohtani is in town. It’s “Sho-time” on the mound Friday night in a doozy of a pitching matchup with Framber, with Ohtani batting in at least three of the four games. In one player the Angels have a pitcher as good as Cristian Javier and a hitter better than Kyle Tucker. And the Angels will probably miss the playoffs again anyway. And then lose Ohtani in free agency. After the Angels series the Astros are on the road next week. They start with four games at Toronto against the Blue Jays’ very potent lineup, then it’s three at Cleveland vs. the Guardians whose offense has been pathetic so far this season.

Walk this way

Geek Astro factoid of the week: Jeremy Pena drew two walks in Tuesday’s win over the Twins. In his rookie season, Pena had only one two walk game, also in May, also against the Twins. Tuesday’s bases on balls finally got Pena into double digits for the season. He has just 11 walks drawn (largely explaining his weak .307 on-base percentage) vs. 50 strikeouts.

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Stone Cold ‘Stros is the weekly Astro-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule it goes up at 3PM Monday on the SportsMapHouston YouTube channel, is available there for playback at any point, and also becomes available in podcast form at outlets galore. Such as:

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