THE FRIDAY CODY STOOTS 6 PACK
Jaguars are vulnerable, but can Texans take advantage?
Oct 19, 2018, 7:00 am
The Jags D has not been as dominant this year. Jacksonvillejaguars.com
It's the Friday Stoots 6-Pack on SportsMap with plenty to get you ready for the NFL weekend.
1. Brock Osweiler leads the Dolphins this week yet again with Ryan Tannehill injured. This week the Lions off a bye get Brock and company. He had some great stats and some very Osweilerian plays against the Bears in the overtime win last week. With injuries mounting and Osweiler's success, the Dolphins could be looking to move on from the former Texas A&M product. Not for Brock, goodness no. But for a rookie or other available free agent. As for Brock, just stay healthy so Thursday Night Football we get the Osweiler return game we were robbed of last year.
2. The Bears might be in for a rude awakening this week. They've had a nice season but second-year quarterback against the greatest coach in NFL history is a recipe for disaster. Khalil Mack is great but there should be an expectation the Patriots do to him as they do with all great defenders: neutralize. It will be an interesting one for Chicago, who went from rebuilding to ready with the addition of Mack but have had two disappointing losses. A nice measuring stick for the Bears and a good challenge for the Patriots.
3. There might be three games with eye-popping scores Sunday. Browns-Buccaneers has shootout written all over it with the Browns being inconsistent on defense and offense the Buccaneers terrible defense is the recipe to get going. Jameis Winston played his tail off and he's trying to stick as the starter so he's motivated to sling it and their run game stinks. The Ravens have put up big numbers and the Saints bring a rested but bad defense. Brees and Flacco is an offensive showcase in today's NFL. Then Sunday Night Football features "Showtime" Patrick Mahomes and his team's awful defense against Andy Dalton and the surprisingly good Cincinnati offense.
4. The Texans might have yet another new-look offensive line on Sunday. Guard Zach Fulton has been starting at the right guard spot but an ankle injury has sidelined him this week. If he can't play against the Jaguars it could be Greg Mancz at guard. The Jaguars haven't had the success of last year rushing the passer but they're still a talented bunch. Yet another moving part for the Texans offensive line could spell doom for a team that has allowed almost the most sacks and by far the most quarterback hits in the NFL.
5. Jacksonville is way behind statistically from last year. Their interceptions are way down, just three this year and 25 spots in the NFL ranking off their second-place finish last year. They are way down on sacks too. The Jaguars were second last season and find themselves 18th this season. They have actually had success in not giving up yards but their rush defense isn't great. The Texans could use the balance to help protect Watson and get the offense going.
6. If the NFL is truly a quarterback league why aren't we all picking the Texans to win this game? Deshaun Watson, on his worst day, is so much better than Blake Bortles. The Jaguars wideouts pale in comparison to the Texans pass catchers. The rushing advantage and the offensive line is tilted to Jacksonville. The Texans defense is playing better than the Jaguars right this minute. Now, why people, including myself, are picking the Jaguars. They are coached better. Doug Marrone and his staff are better at coaching than Bill O'Brien and his staff. The Texans have turnovers in 20 straight games and have thrown an interception in 17 straight games. They commit penalties too often. Houston can't score in the red zone despite being unstoppable last year. It's coaching. From top to bottom. It should be the difference Sunday.
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The Astros have already been swept in four series this season. They were swept in four series all of last season. As Mexico City says bienvenidos to the Astros this weekend, there are certainly more than a few folks fretting that the Astros are already close to saying adios to playoff hopes. The Astros are not at the point of no return, though one can see it out there on the horizon. It wouldn’t take another month of their garbage level 7-19 performance for the season to be essentially down the drain.
If the Astros were in the American League East, they’d already be ten games out of second place. But they’re not! If in the AL Central they’d be eleven and a half games back of Cleveland. But they’re not! Dozens of teams have rebounded to win divisions from larger deficits much later in the season than the Astros face presently. The Seattle Mariners lead the thus far weak AL West at 13-12. The Astros being six and a half games in arrears of the M’s and six back of the Texas Rangers in late April is far from optimal but nowhere near devastating.
Multiple media outlets have noted how few teams historically have started a season in as stumblebum a fashion as the 2024 Astros and wound up making the playoffs. What every outlet I have seen noting that failed to include: this is just the third season since Major League Baseball added a third Wild Card to each league’s postseason field. So, while 7-19 out of the gate is indisputably awful, it is not the death knell to the extent it has been over generations of MLB.
The issue isn’t where the Astros sit in the standings, it’s that they have played atrocious baseball and aren’t providing reason for optimism that a stark turnaround is imminent. The starting rotation is the best hope. Justin Verlander has made two starts. Framber Valdez rejoins the rotation Sunday. Cristian Javier should be a week or so away. Obviously, Ronel Blanco isn’t going to continue pitching as well as he has through his first four starts. But if he is a good number four starter, that’s fine if the top three coming into the season pitch to reasonably hoped for form.
Hunter Brown simply is not a good big league pitcher. Maybe he someday fulfills his potential, but the data at this point are clear. What can Brown do for you? Not much. Spencer Arrighetti needs better command to be a good big league starter. J.P. France was a revelation over his first 17 starts last season, but since has looked like the guy who posted underwhelming numbers when in the minor leagues. If the Astros wind up with 50-plus starts from Brown/Arrighetti/France their goose will probably be cooked.
The only MLB teams with worse staff earned run averages than the Astros’ horrific 5.07 are the Chicago White Sox (Wait! They have Martin Maldonado!) and Colorado Rockies. At 3-22 the White Sox are on an early pace to post the worst record in the history of Major League Baseball. The Rockies never have a chance to post good pitching stats because of the mile high offensive freak show environment in Denver.
Way to go, Joe
Props to Joe Espada for his conviction in making what he believed to be the right call in pulling Verlander after four and a third innings Thursday at Wrigley Field. Verlander allowed no runs but had reached 95 pitches in just the second outing of the injury-delayed start to his season. Not easy for a rookie manager skippering what has been a Titanic journey thus far to pull a surefire Hall of Famer who was two outs away from qualifying for a win. Many were no doubt poised to destroy Espada had Rafael Montero given up the lead in the fifth. Verlander was angry at being pulled from any chance at his 259th career win. Understood, but the manager’s job is to make the decisions he thinks are in the ballclub’s overall best interest. That Montero and Bryan Abreu combined to blow the lead in the sixth is immaterial.
Then there's the offense…
Six runs total the last four games. Scored more than four runs in just one of the last nine games. Timely hitting largely non-existent.
At last check Alex Bregman still hawks that “Breggy Bomb” salsa. At the plate, he’s been mostly stuck in “Breggy Bum” mode, including zero bombs (home runs). 23 games played without a homer is Bregman’s longest drought since 2017 when he had separate 35 and 27 game stretches between dingers. Bregman has a history of slow first months of the season, but never anything as inept as he’s posted thus far. A litany of lazy fly balls, infield pops, and routine grounders add up to a .216 batting average and feeble .566 OPS. Reference point: Martin Maldonado’s worst OPS season with the Astros was .573. If Bregman was a young guy handed a starting job coming out of spring training, if a viable alternative were available, there’s a chance he’d be a Sugar Land Space Cowboy right now. Bregman’s track record makes it a decent bet that he winds up with decent numbers, but nothing special. Certainly nothing remotely worth the 10 years 300 million dollars or whatever Bregman and agent Scott Boras intend(ed) to seek on the free agent market this coming offseason. Two hits Thursday did get Bregman to the 1000 hit plateau for his career.
Despite arriving south of the border with his batting average at .346, even Jose Altuve has his warts. With runners in scoring position, Altuve has one hit this season. One. In 16 at bats. Small sample size, but it counts. That’s .063. Yordan Alvarez has been no great shakes either, five for 24 (.208) with RISP.
One wonders what would happen if the Astros got a hold of and “lost” Jose Abreu’s passport/visa this weekend in Mexico City and Abreu couldn’t get back into the U.S. after the two-game set with the Rockies.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.