Gambling Guide

Jerry Bo: 2018 Russia World Cup group predictions

Messi leads Argentina. Dennis Doyle/Getty Images

In the gambling realm, action junkies and anxious bettors engulf themselves in events that allow you to place an extra amount of wagers for an extended period of time. This summer, we get the FIFA World Cup in a month's span of chaotic betting. Gamblers around the world, as well as the die-hard, devoted fans, will be looking to wager something, anything, opening opportunities for finding value as novice bettors with deep pockets might dictate lines. In other words, if two countries are playing and the fan base of one is much larger, you can expect "loose" money on an individual side as citizens and fans of the country might back their teams with their hearts, opening doors to find mispriced lines.

To Win Group Odds:

Group A

Russia                     +175
Egypt                      +595
Saudi Arabia       +3740
Uruguay                  -130

I especially like the price for Uruguay to win the Group and it will be a MAX per-tournament plays.

Uruguay to win Group A   5U MAX

Group B

Portugal         +195
Spain               -205
Morocco       +1590
Iran               +3290

For me, Spain and Portugal go through, with Morocco being the dark horse in the group that could surprise. The key for Morocco will be defeating Iran and getting the full three points and then getting something out of the match vs. Portugal. The opening round match of Spain vs. Portugal is sure to be a cracker of a match! The scheduling is perfect, on the second day of the tournament, Friday, June 15th, the late game, for the world to relish.

Group C

France          -355
Australia   +1990
Peru             +945
Denmark    +445

The clear favorites to win Group C, France seems to be the obvious choice. My problem is the price being extremely steep for a team with a defense in question.  A team I think will make some noise in this group will be CONMEBOL representer Peru. The return of Paolo Guerrero after getting his ban lifted will serve as a massive boost to the team. The price for Peru to advance can be found in the +170 range, and I like the number quite a bit.

France + Spain Win Groups Parlay   -110 3U
Peru to Advance  +170 2U


Group D

Argentina       -175
Iceland        +1340
Croatia          +220
Nigeria          +995

The fan favorite, Argentina are favorites to win the group but I’m not sure they do. Are they the best team? Yes, but do they play the best as a unit? That’s in question after limping into Russia 2018, needing the last game win even to make it here. The team is led by no other than Lionel Messi, alongside with another world talent in Angel DI Maria, and the Dynamic Paulo Dybala, which manager Jorge Sampaoli will need to find a way to fit in.

Although I think Argentina is the best overall team in the group, I won't back them just yet. Instead, let's see if we can get lucky on Nigeria to advance a +255.

Nigeria to advance a +255    1U

Group E

Brazil                 -355
Switzerland     +620
Costa  Rica     +1790
Serbia               +795

Favorite Brazil is one of my horses I'll be riding this tournament, and the -355 price tag is justified. The question here is who will get second, and I cant choose between Switzerland or Costa Rica so we will pass. Instead, we’ll opt to do another heavy favorite parlay. Remember, in these international tournaments, the top dogs usually show up, and their prices are correct, making it tough to find value in this competition.

Brazil+ Spain  to win groups -110    3U

Group F

Germany .            -305
Mexico                 +520
Sweden                +645
South Korea      +1740

The defending Champions Germany, enter Russia as the overall favorites to win the FIFA World Cup, and deservedly so with all the talent at every position. Look for Germany to dominate once again, but I have a sneaky prediction for them later in this tournament.

No chance for upsets to win the tournament here, but I do find some value in Mexico to advance at -110. With Mexico facing off vs. the Germans in their first match of the group stage, I think they get two advantages.

1) The time to prepare for Germany, knowing the first match will be so pivotal.
2) Knowing where they stand early after their toughest game is also significant, as goal differential will maybe be the deciding factor to who gets second in this group.

Mexico to advance 2.5 U

Group G

Belgium           -130
Panama        +4490
Tunisia          +1790
England           +115

This group is relatively simple to me, Belgium and England both advance. The question is who takes the group; I'll go with Belgium at that price. England will be solid in the attack with Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane, but the overall talent of Belgium will see them win the group.

Belgium to win Group   2U
 

Group H

Colombia    +135
Poland         +170
Senegal       +445
Japan          +745

Perhaps the most robust group to pick a winner, every team is a plus odds leading us to some value. I'll be backing Colombia to win the group for a small bet, with confidence in them being the best top to bottom team here. The return of Radamel Falcao will be the story line to follow, and I fancy him to be in the top goals scorers conversation at the end of the tournament.

Colombia to win the group 2U

** These are only pre tournament bets and will not be reflecting what I bet game to game. The way these teams come out and perform in certain situations is what will guide us to our wagers. These are purely for futures purposes.

World Cup Prop Bet extravaganza coming soon……

Any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.

 

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After the Mariners came alive late in Monday's series opener to hand the Houston the loss and keep their playoff picture hanging in the balance, the Astros returned to T-Mobile Park on Tuesday to try and decrease their magic number. Here's how the middle game went:

Final Score: Astros 6, Mariners 1.

Record: 28-27, second in the AL West.

Winning pitcher: Framber Valdez (5-3, 3.57 ERA).

Losing pitcher: Casey Sadler (1-2, 5.40 ERA).

Both teams trade first-inning runs

The Astros struck first in Tuesday's game, not waiting around until the ninth inning to get on the board. Instead, they jumped out to an immediate 1-0 lead after a two-out RBI-single by Kyle Tucker in the top of the first. The Mariners responded quickly, though, getting a leadoff single in the bottom of the inning before a two-out RBI-double of their own to tie it 1-1.

Astros score five in the sixth

The 1-1 score held all the way until the top of the sixth when the Astros would flip the script from the night prior, taking advantage of some mistakes by Seattle to put up a big inning. First, Michael Brantley started the inning with a solo go-ahead homer to make it 2-1. Then, Kyle Tucker would get his third hit of the night with one out before eventually scoring after a walk and two wild pitches, making it 3-2. With two walks to keep the inning alive and put some insurance runs on base, Martin Maldonado took advantage with a big three-run home run to extend the lead to 6-1.

Valdez finishes seven strong, Astros even series

After allowing the one run in the bottom of the first, Framber Valdez recovered and put together a solid outing on the mound. He allowed just five hits total, two of which came in the first, then back-to-back singles in the fourth and a single in the fifth, while otherwise keeping the Mariners at bay. He would end up completing seven innings of one-run baseball while striking out eight. His final line: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, 0 HR, 108 P.

After Valdez, Enoli Paredes would take over in the bottom of the eighth, working around a leadoff single to get a scoreless inning to keep it 6-1. In the non-save situation, Josh James would come in for the bottom of the ninth and finish off the win for Houston.

Up Next: The finale and rubber game of this three-game set will start a bit earlier on Wednesday, with first pitch scheduled for 5:40 PM Central. The pitching matchup will be Nick Margevicius (1-3, 5.35 ERA) for the Mariners going against Zack Greinke (3-2, 3.90 ERA) for the Astros.

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