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Jerry Bo: 2018 World Cup Russia: The show must go on...

Jerry Bo: 2018 World Cup Russia: The show must go on...
The chase for the Cup has taken some odd turns. @FIFAWorldCup verified Twitter account

This year, the FIFA World Cup in Russia has brought us loads of surprises and we are only a week in. Of the five pre-tournament favorites, only France was able to secure 3 points in their opening match, and that was due to a fortunate own goal.

Although many favorites aren't covering, they are winning straight up.
Favorites 10-4-3 SU
Over/Under  8-9

Unders have a slight lead overall, but where you can find value is on the 1st half unders. Of the 17 matches, only 5 have seen multiple goals in the opening 45 minutes.

Mexico shakes things up

CONCACAF representer Mexico pulled off a stunning upset knocking off the World Champions Germany. Backing El Tri at +600, is the upset of the tournament thus far. On a day that featured the other tournament favorite Brazil, many bettors tried to take the easy route and moneyline parlay Germany and Brazil. We all know how that worked out as neither powerhouse was able to secure 3 points.

The Swiss put cheese in your pockets

Not only were money line parlays destroyed when Mexico pulled off the impossible, but gamblers tend to chase losses and this again led to a disaster. After the final whistle in the Die Mannschaft defeat, action junkies pounded Brazil in the last match of the day. Brazil was over a -300 favorite money line and -1.5 goals on the spread. An early touch of magic from Philippe Coutinho, put bettors in a strong position to catch the second goal and clean up the mess from the first games. At halftime, Switzerland was in the +740 range in some places to come back and pull of a draw. That they did, and the books once again mopped the floor with Brazil backers who led 78% of the action that match.

11 is greater than 10

For 87 minutes, the Colombian national team was asked to play a man down after the cynical mistake by the South American Carlos Sanchez. A clear handball on a goal scoring opportunity left Los Cafeteros playing with 10. Colombia fought hard and even tied things up right before half with some trickery on a free kick, but it wasn't enough. Japan dominated the second half holding 65% possession while getting 11 free kicks to Colombia's 0. Peckerman's group opted to try and park the bus and secure a draw with the early misfortune, but they ultimately crumbled after a 73rd-minute header by Yuya Osako. Japan backers were a part of history as no Asian team had ever beaten a CONMEBOL team in a World Cup, all while cashing the upset at +450.

With Groups having slight uncertainty, the futures market has changed in some places. Find value by predicting where these teams finish in the group and what their paths to the final will be. For example, if Mexico goes on to win the group, Germany takes a tougher path having to play Brazil sooner than expected. Take advantage of that as Brazil odds haven't increased and actually have dropped to +400 in some places. That doesn't reflect the fact of the facing the Champions earlier due to the German's mishaps in the first match vs Mexico. If that happens, I still believe you are better off doing a mechanical parlay aka moneyline roll over from match to match on Brazil to better the odds of +400.

Updated odds

Brazil    +400
Spain    +450
France    +700
Germany    +750
Belgium    +900
Argentina    +1100
England    +1400
Portugal    +1800
Croatia    +2800
Uruguay    +3000
Colombia    +4000
Mexico    +4000
Russia    +5000
Poland    +8000
Switzerland    +8000
Denmark    +10000
Serbia    +12500
Peru    +15000
Sweden    +15000
Senegal    +20000
Iceland    +20000
Nigeria    +20000
Egypt    +30000
Japan    +30000
Australia    +30000
Iran    +50000
South Korea    +50000
Tunisia    +50000
Costa Rica    +75000
Panama    +100000
Morocco    +200000
Saudi Arabia    +200000

As you can see, Germany has dropped after the first match, reflecting our thought on their path. The biggest move in the futures market is Mexico, who went from 100-1 to 40-1 after the Father’s day gift.

Plays

Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay - FIFA World Cup - Group A
Uruguay -1.5   3U
Uruguay -2       2U
Uruguay  TT over 2 MAX


Spain vs Iran - FIFA World Cup - Group B
Spain -2  2U
Over 2.5    3U


Peru vs France - FIFA World Cup - Group C
Over 2.5              2U

Croatia vs Argentina - FIFA World Cup - Group D
Over 2     3U

Peoples Parlay  2U
Spain -1.5
Uruguay -1.5


Parlay   1U
Spain ML
Uruguay ML
France Peru over 2
Croatia vs Argentina Over 2

For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.

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Have the Astros turned a corner? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.

Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.

While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.

Caratini comes through!

So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.

Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.

Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.

Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.

Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…

Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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