DeAndre Hopkins is a fantasy stud. Houstontexans.com
Training Camps have officially started, and football fever is spreading quickly. As we gear up for the kickoff of the 2018 NFL Season, fantasy football drafts approach fast. Many storylines will break throughout the preseason, but many of the primary skill positions for fantasy purposes are set. Let's dive into some of the key players on this year's Texans roster that could help win your fantasy football title.
DeShaun Watson
The hopes and dreams of this Texans squad heavily rely on the quarterback's shoulders. Yes, the team is filled with stars on all levels of the roster, but after years of suffering at the quarterback position, the small sample size of brilliance has the Houston fan base asking for more. A magical run that saw him tally 168.8 total fantasy points, Watson averaged 24.1 points per game, ranking first by a substantial amount over second place Russell Wilson (21.7) in the category. Something historically profound, Watson's touchdown rate was 9.3%; that's an alarming number counting only four quarterbacks have cleared 7.9% since 2000. The league average was 4.3. According to the strength of schedule, Watson faces the third easiest schedule vs. the pass, something that also justifies his high ADP. Many draft boards have the Texans play caller as the second overall quarterback being drafted behind only Aaron Rodgers. To lock up Watson, you might have to reach as he is currently being selected at the top of the fourth round of drafts with an overall ADP of 37.1.
Lamar Miller
Not the most attractive pick, Miller is currently being drafted as the 22nd overall running back. With an ADP that puts him in the middle of the third round, Miller could be a steal with the return of Watson, as he benefited with the star quarterback in the lineup averaging almost 5 more points in PPR scoring during the six games he started. The only problem is his lack of consistency and explosiveness as of late. Well, we say lack of consistency, but he was uniformly mediocre, failing to eclipse the 75-rush yard mark during the regular season. 2017 also saw Miller record a career low with 3.7 YPC while only scoring three rushing touchdowns, the same amount he had as a pass catcher. A lot of his season depends on the health of Watson and the return of D’Onta Foreman who was starting to overtake the position before a season-ending injury. Something else to keep an eye on throughout the preseason will be the touches of Alfred Blue, as it was him that led the team in carries (46-27) down the stretch from weeks 15-17.
D’Onta Foreman
Placed on the active/PUP list to start camp. That leaves open the possibility he begins the season on the reserve/PUP, which would cost him six games. "Work in progress right now, recovering from this injury. He's improving, but time will tell whether he's available to us when we kick off." - Texans GM Brian Gaine.
Alfred Blue
Nothing more than a week filler if there is an injury in the depth chart ahead of him, Blue starts the year as the third option depending on the status of Foreman.
DeAndre Hopkins
A man that needs no introduction, Nuk hopes the return of Watson will rocket him back to the top of the wide-out ranks. A sure-fire WR1 in Watson's six full starts under center, Hopkins was able to cement a 6.3/91.8 yard average in the half dozen sample size. When the star quarterback went down for the year, he still carried a 6.4/91.9 yard average while catching ducks from Tom Savage and T.J Yates. Hopkins led the NFL is receiving touchdowns with 13 and finished as the top overall receiver in standard scoring with 213.8 total fantasy points on the season. Nuk made a massive leap from his 2016 performance where he ended as the 35th overall WR averaging 7.4 PPG. Last season he dominated, almost averaging double that with 14.3 fantasy PPG. With a healthy and focused Watson, look for Hopkins to finish in the Top 3 wideouts for the season, serving as an essential piece to your fantasy championship puzzle.
Will Fuller
Manos de Piedra -- aka stone hands, but not the ones spoken in the boxing realm. On the gridiron, a receivers hands are referred to as soft, well at least the great ones. Over his short career, Fuller has had trouble dropping passes, but the emergence of Watson as a star last season saw the speedster tear up defensive backs. With Watson, Fuller was able to turn his 13 receptions into seven touchdowns in just four games. Now, we know we are due for negative regression, but what can extra time with his quarterback do for him as last season he missed the beginning of the season as he recovered from a broken collarbone sustained in training camp. Fuller is currently being drafted extremely high falling at the bottom of the 5th round as the 24th overall wide receiver with an ADP of 57.7.
Braxton Miller
Bruce Ellington
Keke Coutee
All will be battling for the third spot on the receiver depth chart. With Hopkins running over 90% of his routes outside and Fuller 75%, the battle for the slot receiver will be fought throughout training camp. The 4.43 electric fourth round rookie out of Texas Tech, Coutee promises to be a deep threat, as almost 40% of his total receiving yards in college came on passes of 20+ yards downfield.
Tight ends
The Position this year will truly be a battle to find normality. After an absurd amount of concussion scares, C.J. Fiedorowicz retired leaving the door open for Ryan Griffin. The only problem is the concussions must have been contagious as Griffin sustained two of his own. In the games he did play, Griffin failed to record over five receptions and only scored one touchdown, making him non-relevant in fantasy leagues.
Jordan Akins, rookie pick 98, could be someone to replace Griffin.
Defense
The defense will try to erase the mishaps of 2017, as the history books won't ever show the truth in the injuries the team endured last season. A stable of stars returning healthy has the optimism around the Houston fan base at an all-time high. The Texans hope to rise back to the top ranks of the league on the defensive side of the ball after ranking 2nd in 2014, 4th in 2015, and 4th in 2016 before dropping to 25th in fantasy points for a defense in 2017. The additions of Tyrann Mathieu and Aaron Colvin will help out a defensive backfield that ranked 25th in DVOA vs. the pass but only ninth vs. the run. Look for the defense to be fast, aggressive, and create turnovers leading to some high scoring weeks as a defense throughout the season. With the Texans facing the softest SOS this season, the game script should include them leading games more often, ultimately traversing to more chances for sacks and interceptions when teams have to risk more. Houston is currently being taken as the seventh defense overall off the board in drafts somewhere around the 11th round.
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or nine games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez (though not Breggy Bad). A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.