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Jerry Bo: World Cup 2018 Russia: The calm before the storm
Jun 13, 2018, 7:07 am
While you can't win this trophy, you can sure win some bets. @FIFAWorldCup verified Twitter account
There is an obsession with possessing the 11 pounds of 18-carat gold that is only offered every four years. Some say playing for your country is the greatest feat one can accomplish, a chance to represent your roots and homeland.
No stage is more significant than that of the FIFA World Cup; the wait is over. Welcome to Russia!
LATEST ODDS TO WIN 2018 WORLD CUP
Brazil +450
Germany +475
Spain +600
France +650
Argentina +950
Belgium +1200
England +1800
Uruguay +2500
Portugal +2800
Croatia +3300
Colombia +4000
Russia +5000
Poland +8000
Mexico +10000
Denmark +10000
Switzerland +10000
Sweden +15000
Senegal +15000
Egypt . +15000
Serbia . +20000
Iceland +20000
Japan +20000
Nigeria . +20000
Peru +20000
Costa Rica +30000
Australia +30000
Iran +50000
Morocco +50000
South Kore +50000
Tunisia +50000
Panama . +100000
Saudi Arabia +100000
Some of the odds have changed with some places having Brazil as slightly the lone favorite.
Be attentive of the news coming out of Spain as news is breaking that they might sack their manager before the start of the World Cup. Julen Lopetegui announced recently that he would be taking over the Real Madrid vacancy, the way he went about the process didn't sit well with the Spanish FA and there are rumors of him being fired with less than 24 hours until the kickoff of the tournament.
PROPS
Mexico - Team Stage of Elimination
Round of 16 +200
I like this wager for the reason I think that Mexico will advance out of this group with the second spot. Although this would be a great accomplishment, failing to win Group F matches you up with no other than tournament Favorite Brazil. El Tri advance and lose in the round of 16 to Brazil.
Brazil reaches the semifinal -102
As mentioned above, I think Brazil wins their group matching them up with CONCACAF representer Mexico. A win there matches them up potentially with Belgium. Playing a Roberto Martinez led team that is historically known for attacking and leaving spaces will be the end of Belgium, seeing Brazil through to a South American clash with Uruguay.
Uruguay stage one points over 6½ -104
Listed as a MAX pre-tournament bet, Uruguay to win the group will be tied into over 6.5 group points. In this tournament, a win is worth 3 points a draw 1. With that in mind, I see the South Americans winning their first two group games, seeing them face up against the host in the final group game. The only worry here will be that if Uruguay has already clinched the top spot in the group, they may opt to rest players in the final group game. Still, I think they have enough to pull out a draw vs. a Russian squad who will potentially be eliminated at this point.
Brazil stage one points over 7½ +150 3U
This bet, plain and simple. Brazil will run through the group stage accumulating 9 group points. Even if qualified for the round of 16 going into their third match, Serbia is a very favorable match-up to get the final 3 points to win this wager. I like this bet quite a bit.
Peru total World Cup goals over 3 -160
Group C is one I see plenty of high scoring affairs in. I also have expressed my love for this Peruvian team, and I think they can score more than three goals through the group stage. Paolo Guerrero's return will be a story line to follow in Russia, look for him to be one of the top goal scorers of the tournament.
Belgium stage one points over 6½
This comes back to my predictions of Belgium taking the group. The first two matches I see as a relatively easy 6 points. The final game of the group stages will see England and Belgium fight for the top spot in the group. A draw in the final game will see this bet cash if Belgium wins the first two games as predicted.
Neymar wins Golden Ball +795
This is Neymar's tournament to shine, and he will do just that. Look for the Brazilian start to light up the pitch, find different props on him as he will be a stud this tournament. The Golden Ball goes to the best player, the Golden Boot, to the top goal scorer. We like this bet rather than the top goal scorer as he is likely to see extra attention at times, leaving him open to also get assists throughout the tournament. Goals and assists on a team that will be playing deep in the tournament is the perfect recipe for the best player in the Cup. Another bet I saw was will the top goal scorer in the tournament be Brazilian? -300. If Brazil is favored that heavily to have the top scorer than Neymar should top the list.
Argentina - Top Team Goals corer
Messi -150
Juicy, but justified. The horse for the Argentine National team, the world best #10 is known to carry this team time after time. Four goals in Brazil 2014, look for Lionel Messi to pick up where he left off and lead Argentina through the tournament.
Peru - Top Team Goalscorer
Paolo Guerrero +200 2U
Another value bet, as he is the teams leading scorer and we saw that in his return after getting his ban lifted. Nothing short of spectacular netting two goals.
Paolo Guerrero - Total Goals O/U .5 Over 2U
The wager is basically will he score this World cup with the total sitting at .5
England - Top Team Goalscorer
Harry Kane
Fresh off the big resigning with Tottenham, we take a shot with the English top target. A lethal finisher from any spot, look for Kane to put his stamp all over Russia in 2018. Raheem Sterling is the other player who could lead the team, but I see Kane being the beneficiary of Sterling's pace and ability to get England out in open space with the ball.
Colombia - Top Team Goalscorer
Radamel Falcao +250
El Tigre waited four years to get his chance once again to represent Colombia in a World Cup. Remember a time going into Brazil 2014, where Falcao was deemed as one of the best finishers in the world at that moment, and James Rodriguez was more of a sidekick. An injury vs. a third division player in one of his last games with his club team before getting ready for Brazil 2014, saw him miss his chance to play in a World Cup. Look for a Tigre to be reborn in Russia.
The World's greatest sporting event is finally here, and a wise man once told me: “Soccer, is a sickness we are all born with, but in sickness and in health, ALWAYS TOGETHER “
RIP DAD, wherever you are…...
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.