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Jerry Bo's bookie busters 2018 World Cup quarterfinals analysis: Break on through to the other side

Jerry Bo's bookie busters 2018 World Cup quarterfinals analysis: Break on through to the other side
Eight countries are still chasing this. @FIFAWorldCup verified Twitter account

Eight countries left, all chasing the 18 for 18; I refer to pounds in karats of gold. Well, not all of it is solid, but 75% happens to be.

The current trophy has been around since 1974, replacing the Jules Rimet Trophy, which was kept by Brazil in 1970, after winning the tournament for their 3rd time (1958, 1962, 1970).

Valued at approximately  $161,000, will one of the underdogs manage to steal a few games and take home the coveted prize? We use the term "steal," as thats what ultimately happened to the original Jules Rimet Trophy, when it was stolen on December 19th, 1983, in Rio De Janiero. The trophy has yet to be recovered until this day, but it is said to have been melted down and sold.

Enough about the prize, first these teams must handle business, and four teams will break through into the semifinals; the question,  which flags will they carry?

Break on through.....

If trends are your type of thing, 17 of the past 20 semi-finalists in this tournament have been group winners. The last team to be runner-up and be crowned Champion was Italy in 1986. Again, these are just numbers.

Women lie, Men lie, but the numbers don't. We have six group winners and two runner-ups; keep these things in mind.

Updated odds

Brazil    +300
France    +400
England    +400
Belgium    +500
Croatia    +600
Uruguay    +1600
Russia    +2000
Sweden    +2500

When picking some of these futures, make sure you get a better price playing it now rather than doing a moneyline roll over. The possible semifinal match-ups have been released, and at many spots, you can find the projected lines, so use them to your advantage. Dig into the numbers to make sure you're getting the most value per wager.

Quarterfinals

Friday 7/6    
France vs. Uruguay     
     
France   +106
Uruguay +367
Draw +214
Over       
Under   2 -119

Advance
France -215
Uruguay +185

Belgium vs Brazil
Belgium   +275 +.5   -127
Brazil   +116
Draw +246
Over     2.5 +102
Under

Advance
Belgium  +150
Brazil   -165

Saturday  7/7

England vs Sweden
England   -103
Sweden +375       +.5 -108
Draw +233
Over
Under   2 -115

Advance
England -230
Sweden   +200

Croatia vs Russia
Croatia +124     
Russia +302     +.5 -136
Draw +209
Over
Under    2 -117

Advance
Croatia  -165
Russia   +150

Friday plays

Uruguay/ France Under 2   1U
First-half draw   1U
France Advance 1U

MAX PLAYS

Brazil/Belgium Both teams to score  -130 MAX
Over 2  -178   MAX
Over 2.5  +102 MAX

Total corners over 9½     3U
Philippe Coutinho scores a goal   +330 1U
Penalty kick awarded   YES +170 1U

Peoples Parlay   1U (4 spots leave 2 open)

France Advance

Brazil/Belgium BTTS

For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on Twitter.

 

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Have the Astros turned a corner? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.

Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.

While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.

Caratini comes through!

So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.

Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.

Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.

Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.

Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…

Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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