BANKING ON WATSON
John Granato: Hoping Pro Football Focus is wrong about the Texans
Jul 12, 2018, 7:09 am
Pro Football Focus thinks Deshaun Watson is an average quarterback. Tim Warner/Getty Images
If it wasn’t bad enough watching the Texans muddle through another dismal season after Deshaun Watson went down, Pro Football Focus doesn’t think it will be much better this year - not if you look at their NFL roster rankings.
Of the 32 NFL teams, the Texans roster came in 31st. There is no way to spin that. It’s bad. It’s why Rick Smith is no longer working for the organization. There were way too many swings and misses draft after draft.
According to PFF the Texans have one exceptional player in DeAndre Hopkins, a couple just behind him in J.J. Watt and J.D. Clowney and three above average players in D.J. Reader, Zach Cunningham and Aaron Colvin. That’s it. The rest of the roster is a bunch of guys.
That’s where PFF and I disagree.
PFF gave Deshaun a grade of 75.1 which makes him an average NFL quarterback.
My undying love for Deshaun is well documented. I’m biased on this but by what measure can you say that Deshaun Watson was an average NFL quarterback last year? Certainly not by his play. When he got injured he was leading the league in touchdown passes and the Texans had the No. 1 scoring offense. His QB rating of 103 finished just ahead of Tom Brady, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. How in the world is that average?
Maybe they’re penalizing Deshaun for being injured. That’s about the only explanation. That can’t be though because Aaron Rogers had an 84.4 PFF rating last year and he was injured too.
I’m not saying he’s Aaron Rogers but these ratings shouldn’t take into account your past. They’re based solely on last year’s performance and last year Deshaun was better than Rogers.
Rogers threw more passes and completed more with a better completion percentage but Deshaun threw for more yards, more yards per pass, more touchdowns, made more big plays and had a higher qb rating.
It doesn’t make sense.
But that’s about all I can disagree with. It’s no secret that the Texans have average to below average players everywhere else. It’s why I think they have been so bad on special teams for so long. If your starters aren’t that good how good can your special teams players be any good?
But 31st in the league is a lot lower than I would have thought the Texans roster would be. The only team worse is the Browns but they’re completely overhauling that roster and will be better this year.
The Jets have a better roster than the Texans? Really? The Colts? The Giants? Man.
Objectively looking at the Texans it’s hard to think that this team will win. The offensive line collectively is one of the worst units in the league. Outside of DeAndre Hopkins the receivers are average at best. The running backs are just guys.
Defensively, Kevin Johnson was PFF’s worst corner last year. J-Jo is another year older. Kareem Jackson has to move to safety. The inside linebackers are good but struggle some in pass coverage. We’ll see if Whitney Mercilus returns to All-Pro form. Clowney, J.J. and Reader are among the best when healthy but that’s a big if especially with JJ. It can be a great front 7 but, but, but.
There is one X-factor this season. Deshaun. Number 4 made everyone better last year. He took a crappy offense to the top of the league. Took the worst line in the league and made it serviceable. Took average playmakers and made them special and took Deandre Hopkins to elite status.
He couldn’t make the defense any better though. His 3-3 record as a starter was in large part due to a defense that couldn’t stop anyone late in games. Seattle and New England both drove right down the field to beat the Texans in the final minutes. The other factor was questionably conservative play calls that put the defense back on the field. Hopefully both the defense and the play caller learned some lessons last year.
But the fact of the matter is that with no first or second round picks the Texans could only marginally improve their roster. The offensive line picked up a couple of free agents but no one that moved the needle. The defense grabbed a nice free agent in Aaron Colvin and if Tyrann Mathieu plays like he did early in his career he will be a huge plus. Third round pick Justin Reid has to grow up in a hurry because they’re going to need him with Andre Hal sidelined with lymphoma.
The biggest additions though will be Watt and Whitney Mercilus. PFF gave JJ an 89.3 rating but that was all on past performance. He only played in five games last year with no sacks and 15 total tackles. How that rates so high I can’t tell you. We all know what J.J. can be though and he has to be if the Texans are going to move up from their present status as a bottom dweller.
Everywhere I look the Texans are thought to be a 6 to 9 win team, usually closer to the 6 than the 9. Every preseason preview begins and ends with Deshaun’s health. Everyone is waiting for J.J. to get back to doing J.J. stuff.
Call me an optimist or just plain stupid (many people have), I think they’re going to be the division champ and a scary playoff team.
I’m a homer. I’ll admit it. But I’m not going to dismiss what I saw from Deshaun Watson the past three years. He’s special and when you have that under center you’ve always got a chance to do special things.
Maybe Pro Football focus is right. Maybe their roster just isn’t good enough but the great players make everybody around them better including the head coach. Deshaun did that last year and will do it again this year.
Book it… but not with money. I don’t need that heat if they finish last.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.