If a couple of beautiful sunny days and the fact that spring training opens next week wasn’t enough to boost the mood of Astros fans, knowing Jose Altuve is locked up for the next six seasons certainly did the trick. For these cash flush times in Major League Baseball the five year 125 million dollar extension is very reasonable money even though it covers Altuve’s age 35 through age 39 seasons (season age is defined by how old a player is July 1, roughly the midpoint of the season). Of course 25 million dollars per season carries risk but with what other player would you more or as willingly take that risk? And Altuve is taking a pay cut from the 30.2 mil per season of his last extension. It’s a win-win deal. Altuve gets longer term security with the only franchise for which he wants to play, the Astros secure the services for the remaining great years of the most iconic player in franchise history.

Altuve’s ability will inevitably decline over the extension. By all metrics his defense has already fallen off notably over the last two years. But barring a surprisingly precipitous drop off of Altuve’s signature skill, his hitting should age fairly well. Provided the Astros are still a contending team when Altuve is 37, 38, 39 years old, he likely will not be a guy you want at second base every day. Designated hitter playing time should come increasingly into play. Yordan Alvarez is under contact through 2028 so he and Altuve figure to split DH duties for a couple of years. Side note: odds are it takes another year beyond the extension for Altuve to get to 3000 hits.

For those who understandably wonder about committing all that money over what will become “over the hill” years, some comparisons…

The Phillies will be paying Trea Turner over 27 million dollars per season for his ages 35 through 39 seasons, then 27 million more when he’s 40. The Padres will be paying Xander Bogarts about 25.4 million per year for his ages 35 through 40 seasons. Turner and Bogaerts are excellent players but if we take out the short 2020 COVID season, Turner’s best season doesn’t rank in Altuve’s top three, Bogaerts's best maybe tops Altuve’s third best. Mike Trout is the greatest player to enter the big leagues in the past 20 years (possibly closer to 40-since Barry Bonds) but he has played in less than half the games for the Angels over the last three seasons. The Angels are on the hook for Trout at over 37 mil per season for seven more years, taking him to 39 years old. The Yankees will be paying Aaron Judge 40 mil per season through his age 39 season. Altuve at 25 mil per? Not a steal, but relative to the marketplace, a very favorable deal for the Astros.

Now what going forward?

You know free agent-to-be Alex Bregman doesn’t begrudge a dime of what Altuve is getting, but he is well aware of every dime. If not, he can just ask Scott Boras, the agent he shares with Altuve. Bregman is a very good player but hasn’t been great since 2019. While a staple of this amazing era in Astros history, Bregman is not Altuve-level. Bregman turns 30 two days after Opening Day. Would he take the same five years, 125 million that Altuve just did? Would the Astros be willing to go there? Barring a massive leap this year from Zach Dezenzo, the Astros have no meaningful third baseman prospect to take over third base in 2025.

And whither Kyle Tucker, who turned just 27 years old three weeks ago. Tucker can’t hit the open market until after the 2025 season. Wins Above Replacement isn’t a perfect metric but it’s pretty good. Tucker is coming off his third straight WAR season of better than 5.0. That’s one more than Bregman has in his career (Altuve has five). A seven-year extension on top of the 12 million Tucker will make in 2024 would take Tucker through age 34. That is not at all unreasonable. I don’t know if Tucker would take an additional 170 million over seven years, taking the total to 182 over eight. I do know that would be a fair and generous offer the Astros should be willing to make.

All these figures remind of the fabulous discount the Astros are getting on Yordan Alvarez. The Astros structured the extension Alvarez signed to pay him loosely based on salary arbitration level numbers before bumping him up for when he’d have hit free agency. Tucker will make more than Alvarez this season, 12 million to roughly 10.8. Next year Alvarez makes about 15.8. Tucker likely tops that. Alvarez jumps to approximately 26.8 million per season in 2026, 2027, and 2028.

In an either/or scenario, if you could keep Yordan for those three years at about 80.5 million but lose Tucker, or give that money to Tucker and lose Yordan, which way do you go?