THE PALLILOG
How Jose Altuve's new contract stands above comparable superstar deals for Astros
Feb 7, 2024, 3:04 pm
Jose Altuve signed a team-friendly deal for Houston. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.
If a couple of beautiful sunny days and the fact that spring training opens next week wasn’t enough to boost the mood of Astros fans, knowing Jose Altuve is locked up for the next six seasons certainly did the trick. For these cash flush times in Major League Baseball the five year 125 million dollar extension is very reasonable money even though it covers Altuve’s age 35 through age 39 seasons (season age is defined by how old a player is July 1, roughly the midpoint of the season). Of course 25 million dollars per season carries risk but with what other player would you more or as willingly take that risk? And Altuve is taking a pay cut from the 30.2 mil per season of his last extension. It’s a win-win deal. Altuve gets longer term security with the only franchise for which he wants to play, the Astros secure the services for the remaining great years of the most iconic player in franchise history.
Altuve’s ability will inevitably decline over the extension. By all metrics his defense has already fallen off notably over the last two years. But barring a surprisingly precipitous drop off of Altuve’s signature skill, his hitting should age fairly well. Provided the Astros are still a contending team when Altuve is 37, 38, 39 years old, he likely will not be a guy you want at second base every day. Designated hitter playing time should come increasingly into play. Yordan Alvarez is under contact through 2028 so he and Altuve figure to split DH duties for a couple of years. Side note: odds are it takes another year beyond the extension for Altuve to get to 3000 hits.
For those who understandably wonder about committing all that money over what will become “over the hill” years, some comparisons…
The Phillies will be paying Trea Turner over 27 million dollars per season for his ages 35 through 39 seasons, then 27 million more when he’s 40. The Padres will be paying Xander Bogarts about 25.4 million per year for his ages 35 through 40 seasons. Turner and Bogaerts are excellent players but if we take out the short 2020 COVID season, Turner’s best season doesn’t rank in Altuve’s top three, Bogaerts's best maybe tops Altuve’s third best. Mike Trout is the greatest player to enter the big leagues in the past 20 years (possibly closer to 40-since Barry Bonds) but he has played in less than half the games for the Angels over the last three seasons. The Angels are on the hook for Trout at over 37 mil per season for seven more years, taking him to 39 years old. The Yankees will be paying Aaron Judge 40 mil per season through his age 39 season. Altuve at 25 mil per? Not a steal, but relative to the marketplace, a very favorable deal for the Astros.
Now what going forward?
You know free agent-to-be Alex Bregman doesn’t begrudge a dime of what Altuve is getting, but he is well aware of every dime. If not, he can just ask Scott Boras, the agent he shares with Altuve. Bregman is a very good player but hasn’t been great since 2019. While a staple of this amazing era in Astros history, Bregman is not Altuve-level. Bregman turns 30 two days after Opening Day. Would he take the same five years, 125 million that Altuve just did? Would the Astros be willing to go there? Barring a massive leap this year from Zach Dezenzo, the Astros have no meaningful third baseman prospect to take over third base in 2025.
And whither Kyle Tucker, who turned just 27 years old three weeks ago. Tucker can’t hit the open market until after the 2025 season. Wins Above Replacement isn’t a perfect metric but it’s pretty good. Tucker is coming off his third straight WAR season of better than 5.0. That’s one more than Bregman has in his career (Altuve has five). A seven-year extension on top of the 12 million Tucker will make in 2024 would take Tucker through age 34. That is not at all unreasonable. I don’t know if Tucker would take an additional 170 million over seven years, taking the total to 182 over eight. I do know that would be a fair and generous offer the Astros should be willing to make.
All these figures remind of the fabulous discount the Astros are getting on Yordan Alvarez. The Astros structured the extension Alvarez signed to pay him loosely based on salary arbitration level numbers before bumping him up for when he’d have hit free agency. Tucker will make more than Alvarez this season, 12 million to roughly 10.8. Next year Alvarez makes about 15.8. Tucker likely tops that. Alvarez jumps to approximately 26.8 million per season in 2026, 2027, and 2028.
In an either/or scenario, if you could keep Yordan for those three years at about 80.5 million but lose Tucker, or give that money to Tucker and lose Yordan, which way do you go?
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Astros-Reds opener could hinge on these critical factors
May 9, 2025, 12:30 pm
It’s been a slog on the treadmill of mediocrity for the Astros thus far in 2025. Their 18-18 record heading into a weekend series at Daikin Park vs. the Reds is appropriate. Plenty of good teams will have similar stretches this season. The Astros have to prove that this year’s edition is a good team. Plenty of time for that remains. Reminder that the breakout 2017 Astros had a 74-game stretch over which they went 37-37. 162 games allow for a lot of ebb and flow. Of course, the 2025 Astros’ roster is not close in quality to that of the 2017 squad. The point isn’t that this team could be a 101-game winner but that the 88 victories good enough for a playoff spot last year are still quite plausible this year.
The Rockets achieved mediocrity last season after three seasons as a laughingstock. This season they made the leap to good. While curling up and succumbing to Golden State in the decisive game seven of their first-round playoff series was a disappointment, the Rockets are in excellent position moving forward. Where they go from here should be quite interesting,
OF COURSE the Rockets are going to explore trading Jalen Green. He is obviously their most physically gifted player, but his consistent inconsistency is exasperating. Green’s series against the Warriors was basically an embarrassment with the exception of his 38-point game two outburst. The other six games, a meager nine-point-two points per game. That Green is still just 23 years old means it is not near obligatory they move on from him as Green starts a three-year 105 million dollar contract extension. However, the state of his game and comparison to a few specific players cast enough doubt about Green’s ceiling that declaring him “untouchable” would be ridiculous. During the Golden State series, an NBA play-by-play guy who I think is very good overall once referred to Green as the “Rockets’ superstar.” Anyone, including Green himself, who calls him a superstar either misspoke, was caught up in a moment, or is clueless.
Jalen Green just finished his fourth NBA season. Fairness requires noting that his first two seasons were compromised by being on atrocious Rockets’ squads. That said, Green was on 41-41 and 52-30 teams the past two seasons. In neither of him did he shoot a league average percentage either overall or from behind the three-point line. He did approach the three-point league average of 36 percentage made with his 35.4. That Green is an 80 percent career free throw shooter gives hope the three-point shooting can further develop. Better shot selection sure would help.
Green was the second overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, one year removed from high school. The player taken ahead of him was Cade Cunningham who also played just one year out of high school before going NBA. Cunningham joined a joke Detroit Pistons team. Cunningham is a much better player than Green at this point.
Other shooting guards who played one year after high school then jumped to the NBA, who were markedly ahead of Green after four NBA seasons include Anthony Edwards (first pick in his draft class), and Shae Gilgeous-Alexander (11th), and Devin Booker (13th). In comparison to each Green is a disappointment, though certainly not a bust.
What is head coach Ime Udoka’s bottom-line belief in Green fulfilling his potential? My guess is that cup is not overflowing. The Rockets’ half-court offense simply is not of championship caliber. Can it evolve there with Green, or is he better used as a piece in a trade offer with other players plus draft picks for a Booker or Kevin Duran? The Phoenix Suns are a near assets-less mess of a franchise in dire need of a reset. Durant will be 37 years old when next season starts, but is still a tremendous offensive player who would be a gargantuan half-court offense upgrade for the Rockets. The Rockets have so much draft capital that offering two or three first round picks plus Green, Cam Whitmore, and another player or two to make the salary cap math work would A: not empty out the Rockets’ flexibility going forward and B: have to get the Suns’ attention. If I’m Udoka and General Manager Rafael Stone, I’m making the call.
Courtesy of the Suns, the Rockets hold what is currently the ninth pick in the NBA Draft. The draft lottery is Monday night. The Rockets’ have a three-point-eight percent chance of winning it and the right to make Duke freshman superstar (and Final Four loser to UH) Cooper Flagg the number one pick. There is a 13.5 percent chance the Rockets move up to pick two, three, or four. Otherwise, it’s ninth, or lower if another team or teams vault up the lottery board.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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