AND THE HOUSTON TEXANS SELECT...

Josh Jordan's mock draft 4.0: The Oliver twist

Josh Jordan's mock draft 4.0: The Oliver twist
Photo via: University of Houston football/Facebook

Okay, so I'm not going to try to predict all the possible trades that may go down. My mock draft is more about showing where I anticipate players to be selected, which positions teams are looking to fill, and what the player's perceived value is. There were seven trades on the first day of the draft last year, and it won't surprise me if it happens again.

This mock draft is mostly about the Texans and I think the majority of the early trades in the 1st round for QBs, won't impact the Texans all that much. I will say, the more QBs that go in the 1st round, the better for the Texans. If 4 QBs get taken before the Texans pick at No. 23, that means Houston gets a Top 20 non-QB prospect. Texans fans have to love that.

Let's take a look at how the draft board might stack up.

1. Arizona Cardinals- Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

There are some rumblings that Murray may not be the pick, but if the Cardinals don't trade out, I think they draft Murray.

2. San Francisco 49ers- Ohio State DE Nick Bosa

The 49ers take the best player on the board despite trading for Dee Ford.

3. New York Jets- Kentucky Edge Josh Allen

The Jets need somebody that can pressure the QB. Allen is that somebody.

4. Oakland Raiders- Alabama DL Quinnen Williams

This pick could also be Ed Oliver, he's shooting up draft boards. But I'm still gonna predict they take Williams.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Houston DL Ed Oliver

I'm buying into the hype. I had Oliver going No. 12 to the Packers in my last mock, but this time I think he goes Top 5 and Top 3 would not shock me. One way to improve the Bucs' secondary is to get more pressure on the QB. Oliver can do that and then some. I'm hearing the Bucs may trade out of this spot, so that is something to look out for.

6. New York Giants- Michigan DE Rashan Gary

I had the Giants taking a QB in this spot in my last mock, but Gary was already off the board. The Giants also have another pick in the 1st round, so they can address QB there if need be. There is some concern over Gary's shoulder, so if he falls on Thursday night, that's probably the reason.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars- Florida OT Jawaan Taylor

Nothing changes here. The Jags take Taylor to pair with Cam Robinson at tackle. As long as Robinson recovers from his ACL injury, they should be set at tackle for years to come.

8. Detriot Lions- Mississippi State DE Montez Sweat

Matt Patricia is all about defense, and they have to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers. Trubisky and Cousins aren't too shabby either. This could change if teams are concerned about Sweat's heart condition.

9. Buffalo Bills- Washington State OT Andre Dillard

The Bills offensive line is awful. Time to add a tackle and protect Josh Allen. Being able to run the ball in December is a must in Buffalo. Dillard can help with that.

10. Denver Broncos- LSU LB Devin White

The Broncos had an elite defense the last time they won a Super Bowl. Devin White will make an immediate impact and I think the Broncos roll with Flacco this year and wait on QB.

11. Cincinnati Bengals- Missouri QB Drew Lock

Time to move on from Andy Dalton and get a QB will some serious arm talent.

12. Green Bay Packers- Alabama OL Jonah Williams

Great value and he protects Rodgers who has been injured quite a bit the last couple of years.

13. Miami Dolphins- Clemson DL Christian Wilkins

The Dolphins are rebuilding and Wilkins is a nice piece for their d-line.

14. Atlanta Falcons- Oklahoma OT Cody Ford

This may be a little early for Ford, but a big tackle makes sense.

15. Washington Redskins- Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins

The Redskins need a QB and if Haskins falls, they should grab him.

16. Carolina Panthers- Clemson Edge Clelin Ferrell

The Panthers need a pass rush with Peppers retiring.

17. New York Giants- Duke QB Daniel Jones

It looks like the Giants will pass on Haskins at No. 6, and Daniel Jones already has a relationship with Eli and will be the QB in waiting for New York.

18. Minnesota Vikings- NC State C Garrett Bradbury

Vikings really need help on the o-line and Bradbury can step right in and make an impact.

19. Tennessee Titans- Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson

Hockenson is a steal at No. 19 and Delanie Walker is 100 years old and coming off an injury.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers- Michigan LB Devin Bush

The Steelers will have a party in the draft room if they get Bush at No. 20. Bush can replace Ryan Shazier in the middle of the Pittsburgh defense.

21. Seattle Seahawks- Florida State Edge Brian Burns

Seattle can address receiver later in the first round after trading with the Chiefs.

22. Baltimore Ravens- Ole Miss WR D.K. Metcalf

I'm sure the Ravens would like to take a pass rusher here, but they also need receiver help desperately.

23. Houston Texans- Greedy Williams

Photo via: LSU Football/Facebook

I know it seems crazy that Williams would fall this far, and the questions about his football character don't exactly scream Texans worthy, but they need a starting corner, and he has the physical traits GM Brian Gaine desires. SPEED! Plus, LSU is known for having great DB play. The Texans say they want to get faster and Williams running a 4.37 forty certainly qualifies as fast.

Ideally I would like to put a tackle here, but that would mean reaching for Ole Miss OT Greg Little or Kansas State OT Dalton Risner. I'm cool with them taking either one of those guys, but Brian Gaine seems to be a GM that takes the best player available. We saw that when he took safety Justin Reid last year.

Oklahoma's Cody Ford would be a good pick, but I have the Falcons taking him earlier in the first round. Don't rule out the Texans trading back and picking up some extra picks. Drafting one of these tackles in the late first or early second round, and picking up extra picks, would be a nice way of navigating the draft.

24. Oakland Raiders (via Bears)- Iowa TE Noah Fant

The Raiders replace Jared Cook.

25. Philadelphia Eagles- Washington CB Byron Murphy

The Eagles have to fix the secondary.

26. Indianapolis Colts- Mississippi State S Johnathan Abram

Chris Ballard can hold tight and improve the safety position.

27. Oakland Raiders (via Cowboys)- Alabama RB Josh Jacobs

Great value pick for Mike Mayock.

28. Los Angeles Chargers- Clemson DL Dexter Lawrence

Great pick for the Chargers.

29. Seattle Seahawks via (Kansas City Chiefs)- Oklahoma WR Marquise Brown

Doug Baldwin is getting older and always hurt.

30. Green Bay Packers (via Saints)- Mississippi State DL Jeffery Simmons

Watch out when he's healthy.

31. Los Angeles Rams- Notre Dame DL Jerry Tillery

The Rams continue to be strong on the d-line.

32. New England Patriots- Alabama TE Irv Smith Jr.

Gronk's gone, so the Pats get a brand-new TE.

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Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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