HOUSTON VS. BOSTON

Jumping on the Astros bandwagon? Here is the ALCS guide for dummies

Jumping on the Astros bandwagon? Here is the ALCS guide for dummies
George Springer seems to show up every October. Photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images

This article is a continuation of one written for the American League Division Series, which can be found here.

Well. Round one went by quick. Hopefully you didn’t spend too much time practicing your talking points in the mirror from the last article, because you can go ahead and forget everything about the Cleveland Indians until next April. What that means for you, however, is that class is back in session.

The Matchup

The Astros will be playing the Boston Red Sox in a best of seven series. Between the two, Boston had the better regular season record overall and therefore owns home field advantage throughout the series. The first two games will be played in Boston, the next three will be in Houston, and - if needed - the final two will be played back in Boston.

How Houston Made It

The Astros stared at three great Cleveland pitchers in the first round - in three different games - and punched them all in the mouth. Cleveland tried to swing back, but Houston’s pitching staff leaned out of the way, ruffled their hair, and probably called them “Sport,” or “Tiger.” Seriously. In three games, the Indians were outscored 21-6. Better luck next time, sport.

How Boston Made It

The Boston Red Sox faced off against bitter rival New York in a series that was exclusively slotted for primetime, because Yankees. The Red Sox used an overpowering offense to send the Yankees home early, which included a game where Boston choke slammed the bombers 16-1.

Astros Players to Know

If you read the first article of this playoff series, you’ll see that I went to the trouble to introduce you to the biggest names you should know. Take a minute and go read that. I’ll wait.

Now that you’re caught up, let’s get acquainted with some of the other guys.

George Springer: Centerfielder. 2017 World Series MVP. Clubbed two home runs in the last game against Cleveland to close them out. His bat magically warms up in October, so look out for more. Also prone to insane circus catches in center field, so watch for those.

Lance McCullers: Relief Pitcher. Wants to strike everyone out. Sometimes he does just that, and sometimes he gives up four runs in the first inning. If you see him on Twitter he's usually either talking smack to everyone or advocating animal rescue. Seriously, I think he has like 18 dogs.

Sound smart: “So McCullers started throughout the season, but he came off injury a little late in the season so they're going to use him out of the bullpen.”

Marwin Gonzalez: Left fielder. And Second Baseman. And Shortstop. And First Baseman. Third Base? Yeah, he does that too. He played pretty much everywhere there was a tired player that needed a break this season. Just plug him in and watch the Astros’ human swiss army knife go to work. Let’s avoid numbers and just say that he hit the ball more than half of the time he went up to bat in the last round against Cleveland. I’ve never seen him smile.

Yuli Gurriel: First Baseman. In contention for greatest hair on the team, but he won it last year so I gave it to someone else this year. Nicknamed “La Pina,” which is really fun to yell when he gets a hit. Struggled a little at the plate last round, but throughout the regular season was one of the most clutch players in the league with runners on base. So when you see him up to bat with a man on second base, fire this one off:

“It’s La Pina, man. Easy Money.”

Josh Reddick: Right fielder. Country boy. Helped make the “Woo!” chant a thing, which was cool. Last year. Notoriously abysmal at the plate in the postseason last year. OK season this year at the plate, but known for his defense. Likes to mime shooting Spiderman webs after a good catch, so watch for that, point at the screen and go “Yeah, he does that all the time, man.”

Charlie Morton: Pitcher. Threw the final out if the World Series. Dealing with a shoulder issue, but when healthy he pitches hard  and has a filthy curve. Most likely player to mass text the team a reminder of practice times and also to have a wonderful day. His recent dominance has earned him a nickname he probably finds a bit crass: Charlie F(roli)cking Morton. Subtitute the parenthesis for an appropriate vowel.

Red Sox Players to Know

Mookie Betts: Rightfielder. Potential A.L. MVP. Great hitter and base stealer. Second best baseball name in the league (Scooter Gennet obviously being the first). Good bowler. One of the top two Red Sox most likely to frustrate you because he is very, very good.

J.D. Martinez: Designated Hitter. Perpetual five o'clock shadow. Potential A.L. MVP as well, but more than likely the runner up to Betts. This guy is Dangerous with a capital D at the plate. Very capable of crushing a few home runs this series. If he does well some baseball guy is going to inevitably lean over and go “You know he used to be an Astros, right?” Shut him down.

“Yeah, but he was bad. Now he's good. That's how player development works.”

Chris Sale: Pitcher. Top 5 pitcher when healthy. Currently recovering from injury. Game 1 starter. Filthy strikeout stuff. Very tall gangle-creature. Before the Red Sox acquired him, he was offered to Houston in exchange for Alex Bregman.

...nah.

David Price: Pitcher. Game 2 starter. Solid starter. Loves the video game Fortnite. Like a lot. Like, “the Red Sox asked him to stop playing so much and focus on baseball,” a lot.

Craig Kimbrel: Closer. If you see this guy in the game, you're probably already in a bad mood because the Red Sox won't send him out unless they're winning. Seeing his..unique..pitching stance probably won't help your mood. It looks like Dracula hunched over, spreading his cape. Look it up. Kimbrel is typically one of the most dominant closing pitchers but looked vulnerable closing out the Yankees last round.

What to Expect

One hell of a series. These teams own the best two regular season records and a ton of firepower in their bats. I look at this as the de facto World Series because by every metric they're essentially the two best teams. The Astros won the regular season series between the two, but both teams were dealing with separate injuries so take that for what it's worth.

Offensively, it looks like a push with Boston receiving a slight nudge ahead if I had to pick. The deciding factor in this series will once again come down to pitching, and that is where the Astros are simply in a different class. Boston has good starters, but after that the foundation cracks while trying to pass the baton to Kimbrel. Houston's pitching is nails for nine innings.

I call Houston in six. I also call a great series that I'm going to lose years of my life over.







 

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The Astros are down, but not out. Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images.

How badly the Astros have stunk truly is stunning. Yet it could be worse than the eight games they find themselves behind the American League West leading Rangers. The Astros have stunk like rotten eggs sprayed by a skunk. At 13-24 starting their series in Detroit this weekend it’s as simple as that until or unless they prove otherwise. It’s been a total team effort. The offense, defense, and pitching have all failed miserably.

If it takes an unusually low bar of 86 wins to get into the American League playoffs this year, the Astros have to go 73-52 the rest of the way to get there. That’s a .584 winning percentage, which over a full 162 game regular season schedule produces 94 wins. Can the Astros win at that rate the rest of the way? Impossible, no. Improbable, yes. And again, that’s to get to 86 wins. The final AL Wild Card spot last season went to Toronto which won 89 games. The Astros need 76-49 to reach 89. That’s a .608 winning percentage which over 162 games yields 98 wins. Good luck with that.

For those desperately seeking and/or rightfully clinging to some hope:

The 1978 New York Yankees woke up July 20 14 games out of a playoff spot. They won the World Series.

The 2019 Nationals began their season 19-31. They won the World Series.

While they didn’t win the World Series, the 2005 Astros got there after beginning their season 15-30.

Struggles at the plate

At the end of his third full season in the big leagues Alex Bregman was on an early Hall of Fame track. His stats through that third season were better than the first three full season numbers of Mike Schmidt, George Brett, and Chipper Jones, merely three of the top five third basemen of all time (Eddie Mathews is definitely one of the other two, Wade Boggs may be the second). Schmidt, Brett, and Jones obviously went on to legendary careers.

Bregman at 30 years old looks as washed up as Jose Abreu did at this point last season. That is not saying Bregman is finished, but it makes stark the reality that Bregman has been pitiful and shows near zero signs of getting going. He was inept through April, finishing with a .216 batting average and .577 OPS. That was the good part of his season. In May he’s been “Breggy Bum,” batting average .138. Season numbers going into Detroit: Batting average .198, OPS .534. Context time. Over his last three seasons with the Astros, paragon of offensive lousiness Martin Maldonado posted a .593 OPS.

About as shocking as Bregman’s offensive coma, for nearly the last month Yordan Alvarez has been abysmal. Maybe naptime ended Thursday with a home run and a double. Over his last 24 games Yordan has hit more like Canelo Alvarez. If Canelo had both hands tied behind his back. Batting average .187, slugging percentage .341. Brad Ausmus's career slugging percentage was .344.

That Jon Singleton has slotted in as the primary first baseman is suboptimal. Good for him that he popped a couple of home runs to help the Astros win two games on their last homestand and launched a rocket at Yankee Stadium Thursday, but that the 32-year-old Singleton is the best they have and a good bet to be a strong producer going forward this season? Sheesh. Meanwhile Jose Abreu plays shuffleboard and bingo and takes swings against rookie ball pitchers in Florida.

On the bump

The Astros definitely have had injury misfortune in their starting rotation, but they also boxed themselves in. They obviously overrated their pitching depth, and that is not 20/20 hindsight. Justin Verlander is a cinch Hall of Famer but his last fully healthy season was 2019. Planning on him as a workhorse ace as opposed to a solid starter was a fingers crossed deal. Verlander looked very 41 years old as the Yankees pasted him Tuesday night.

Neither Framber Valdez nor Cristian Javier was good the second half of last season, so inking them in as money for two of the top three spots in the rotation was at least as much hope as expectation. Believing J.P. France was fine as the fourth or fifth starter cut against his 2023 fade down the stretch and his minor league background. Banking on Hunter Brown making a big leap in his second season had no solid basis. Spencer Arrighetti clearly does not belong in a legit big league rotation. Props to Ronel Blanco who has been unsustainably excellent.

Jose Urquidy’s earned run average was 5.29 last year so getting him back will be no surefire big upgrade.

Counting on Lance McCullers to pitch well and stay healthy is like counting on James Harden to come up big in an NBA playoff elimination game. By the time McCullers starts his season (allegedly) some time after the All-Star break, the Astros will have paid him more than 25 million dollars since his last pitch in a big league game. Being stuck with McCullers’s contract of 17 million dollars per season for 2025 and 2026 obviously made the Astros reluctant to spend on a depth starter, especially with Luis Garcia also in the convalescing club. Trouble is, by the time they get back (with no assurance of a bunch of quality work from them) to try to pour some water on the fire, the house may have already burned to the ground.

Nevertheless, the Astros are not hopeless yet. Neither should be their fans.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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