It's tournament time. Getty Images
The moment selection Sunday concluded, college hoops enthusiasts scrambled frantically to get their first glance at a bracket and a chance to predict the first upset of the tournament. Over three decades of countless brackets being filled out at a rate that has gotten up to 100 million a year, zero have come out perfect. Even further, according to the main sites that host the March Madness bracket contest (ESPN, FOX, Yahoo, NCAA, CBS.), the best bracket on record was in 2017, with 39 consecutive wins. Before that, it was in 2014, where a man named Brian Bender was able to start out a perfect 36 for 36.
The odds of completing a perfect bracket are nearly impossible, but for employees of Warren Buffet's companies, going perfect through the sweet 16 can bank you 1 million dollars a year, for the rest of your life. An added bonus to this year's prize pool, the 70 billion dollar CEO promises to make it 2 million a year if one of the two teams from his home state can cut down the nets in San Antonio. Creighton and Nebraska just gained that many more fans going into this year's competition. A consolation prize of $100,000 isn't too shabby for the best overall bracket either.
Here are a few tips when filling out your bracket:
How many upsets is too many?
An upset is classified where the teams competing have at least a two seed gap between them. On average, there are 12.7 upsets a year per tournament. Most of those upsets happen in the round of 64 as there are more games, and the difference in competition tightens up through each round.
Upsets through round:
64- 6 upsets
32- 3.6 upsets
Sweet 16- 1.6 upsets
Elite 8- .9 upsets
Final Four- .3 upsets
The most upsets a tournament has seen was in 2014, where it happened 19 times. The least was in 2007 with only four.
When picking underdogs and upsets keep the number around 10, giving you a less chance of busting your bracket up completely.
The infamous #12 vs. #5 match-up
When sifting through stats and trends, one that has come to mind is the recent dependability of this upset in the last few tournaments. Since 2007, all of the No. 5 seeds have advanced together only twice, giving us reason to believe that we will see a 12 knock off a top seed again this year. In the last six years, when these two seeds have faced off in the round of 64, the favorite is 11-13 straight up. Betting against the No. 5 seed in the opening round has paid off big as of late, with the favorite going 8-16 against the spread, and in the past two tournaments, No. 5 seeds hold 1-3 ATS records.
Odds to Win
No. 1 seeds
Villanova +600
Virginia +650
Kansas +1200
Xavier +1500
Although these teams are the top seeds for each region, Vegas doesn't seem to agree. Duke is a #2 seed and pays out+800, less than Kansas and Xavier. The same can be said for #3 seeds Michigan State (+750) and Michigan (+1000). Another significant disagreement with Vegas is with Arizona being a No. 4 seed, and their odds prove it, as the Wildcats pay out the same as No. 1 seeded Kansas. Yes, the road to the final four has a lot to do with the future odds, and with tournament top seed Virginia we see just that. They are the overall top seed yet play slightly less than Villanova. The fact that Virginia will have to potentially play Arizona or Kentucky in the sweet 16 and have to backdoor a likely match-up vs. Cincinnati in the Elite 8 gives Villanova the easier path.
Villanova +600
Virginia +650
Duke +800
Michigan State +1100
Kansas +1200
Purdue +1200
Cincinnati +1200
Arizona +1200
Michigan +1400
North Carolina +1400
Xavier+1500
Gonzaga +1500
Kentucky +1600
West Virginia +2500
Texas Tech +4000
Tennessee +4000
Wichita State +4000
Missouri +5500
Auburn +6000
Ohio State +8000
Florida +9000
Houston U +10000
Providence +10000
Rhode Island +15000
Texas A&M +15000
TCU +15000
Clemson +15000
Miami Florida +15000
Oklahoma +20000
San Diego State +20000
Virginia Tech +20000
Arkansas +25000
Alabama +25000
Davidson +25000
Seton Hall +25000
Texas+25000
Loyola Chicago +25000
NC State +25000
Syracuse +25000
Butler +30000
UCLA +30000
Creighton +35000
Florida State +35000
Arizona State +50000
Kansas State +50000
Marshall +50000
Montana +50000
Nevada +50000
New Mexico State +50000
Stephen F. Austin +50000
Wright State +50000
Bucknell +70000
MD Baltimore County +100000
Buffalo +100000
CS Fullerton +100000
Coll Charleston +100000
Georgia State +100000
Iona +100000
Lipscomb +100000
Long Island +100000
Murray State +100000
NC Central +100000
NC Greensboro +100000
Pennsylvania +100000
Radford +100000
South Dakota State +100000
St. Bonaventure +100000
Texas Southern +100000
Thursday Picks (Picks in Bold):
Thu 3/15 Oklahoma U +2 o158
Rhode Island
Rhode Island -2
Thu 3/15 San Diego State +4 o142.5
Houston U
San Diego State +4
Thu 3/15 Davidson +5 o143
Kentucky
Kentucky-5
Thu 3/15 Loyola Chicago +1.5 o134
Miami Florida
Loyola Chicago +1.5
Thu 3/15 St. Bonaventure / UCLA +4
Florida
Florida -4
Thu 3/15 NC State +2.5 o157.5
Seton Hall
NC State +3 buy hook
Any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoknowz on twitter
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Through 20 games, the Houston Astros have managed just six wins and are in last place in the AL West.
Their pitching staff trails only Colorado with a 5.24 ERA and big-money new closer Josh Hader has given up the same number of earned runs in 10 games as he did in 61 last year.
Despite this, these veteran Astros, who have reached the AL Championship Series seven consecutive times, have no doubt they’ll turn things around.
“If there’s a team that can do it, it’s this team,” shortstop Jeremy Peña said.
First-year manager Joe Espada, who was hired in January to replace the retired Dusty Baker, discussed his team’s early struggles.
“It’s not ideal,” he said. “It’s not what we expected, to come out of the shoot playing this type of baseball. But you know what, this is where we’re at and we’ve got to pick it up and play better. That’s just the bottom line.”
Many of Houston’s problems have stemmed from a poor performance by a rotation that has been decimated by injuries. Ace Justin Verlander and fellow starter José Urquidy haven’t pitched this season because of injuries and lefty Framber Valdez made just two starts before landing on the injured list with a sore elbow.
Ronel Blanco, who threw a no-hitter in his season debut April 1, has pitched well and is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts this season. Cristian Javier is also off to a good start, going 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in four starts, but the team has won just two games not started by those two pitchers.
However, Espada wouldn’t blame the rotation for Houston’s current position.
“It’s been a little bit of a roller coaster how we've played overall,” he said. “One day we get good starting pitching, some days we don’t. The middle relief has been better and sometimes it hasn’t been. So, we’ve just got to put it all together and then play more as a team. And once we start doing that, we’ll be in good shape.”
The good news for the Astros is that Verlander will make his season debut Friday night when they open a series at Washington and Valdez should return soon after him.
“Framber and Justin have been a great part of our success in the last few years,” second baseman Jose Altuve said. “So, it’s always good to have those two guys back helping the team. We trust them and I think it’s going to be good.”
Hader signed a five-year, $95 million contract this offseason to give the Astros a shutdown 7-8-9 combination at the back end of their bullpen with Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly. But the five-time All-Star is off to a bumpy start.
He allowed four runs in the ninth inning of a 6-1 loss to the Braves on Monday night and has yielded eight earned runs this season after giving up the same number in 56 1/3 innings for San Diego last year.
He was much better Wednesday when he struck out the side in the ninth before the Astros fell to Atlanta in 10 innings for their third straight loss.
Houston’s offense, led by Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, ranks third in the majors with a .268 batting average and is tied for third with 24 homers this season. But the Astros have struggled with runners in scoring position and often failed to get a big hit in close games.
While many of Houston’s hitters have thrived this season, one notable exception is first baseman José Abreu. The 37-year-old, who is in the second year of a three-year, $58.5 million contract, is hitting 0.78 with just one extra-base hit in 16 games, raising questions about why he remains in the lineup every day.
To make matters worse, his error on a routine ground ball in the eighth inning Wednesday helped the Braves tie the game before they won in extra innings.
Espada brushed off criticism of Abreu and said he knows the 2020 AL MVP can break out of his early slump.
“Because (of) history,” Espada said. “The back of his baseball card. He can do it.”
Though things haven’t gone well for the Astros so far, everyone insists there’s no panic in this team which won its second World Series in 2022.
Altuve added that he doesn’t have to say anything to his teammates during this tough time.
“I think they’ve played enough baseball to know how to control themselves and how to come back to the plan we have, which is winning games,” he said.
The clubhouse was quiet and somber Wednesday after the Astros suffered their third series sweep of the season and second at home. While not panicking about the slow start, this team, which has won at least 90 games in each of the last three seasons, is certainly not happy with its record.
“We need to do everything better,” third baseman Alex Bregman said. “I feel like we’re in a lot of games, but we just haven’t found a way to win them. And good teams find a way to win games. So we need to find a way to win games.”