THE LEFT TURN
NASCAR Cup Series at New Hampshire: Ambetter 301 Picks, preview
Jul 15, 2022, 10:00 am
THE LEFT TURN
The stars of the Cup Series heads to New England this weekend for the Ambetter 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. This track is precisely one mile in length with absolutely no banking. Because this track is so flat, it’s difficult to pass, so it’s important to have a good track position. One part of the racetrack that is pretty tricky is the bump on the entry of turn four. This could cause problems throughout the race.
Last week, Chase Elliott went on to win his third race of the season. He now becomes the winningest driver this season and appears to be the favorite to win the championship. Throughout the day, Chase easily had the fastest car as he led a race-high 96 laps. The biggest controversy of the race came on the last lap as Elliott threw a block on Corey Lajoie causing a crash and ending the race. Many people including myself were critical of Elliott’s move but after looking at it further, it looked like a racing deal.
Lajoie was the underdog and many people wanted to see him finally get that first career win, and he was right in the mix all the way down to the last lap. When interviewed at the end, Corey was very gracious about Chase and his decision to make the move. When asked, Lajoie responded, “I made my move and it didn’t work out, he made a good block.” It was good to see both drivers were able to come away and let bygones be bygones in the end.
Two drivers on the opposite end of the spectrum are Ross Chastain and Denny Hamlin as they had yet another dust-up. In the closing laps, Chastain slid up the track in turn three and made contact with Hamlin, knocking him into a spin and collecting Brad Keselowski as well. As we all know, these two got together in St. Louis earlier this year. Before this year, the two also got together at Darlington in a Xfinity race back in 2020. All season, Denny has been on the receiving end of Ross Chastain’s aggressive driving style, and it’s becoming more and more of an issue.
While I enjoy Ross as a driver and have followed him since his debut in the truck series back in 2011 at IRP, he isn’t doing himself any favors. We have seen all the sacrifices that Ross has made to get here, he even raced for free back in 2019 in the Xfinity Series for Chip Ganassi. The talent is unmatched as he's having a career year, but if he wants to win the championship, he’s going to have to tone it down a notch. We have seen what damage a driver holding on to a grudge can do, look at Matt Kenseth and Joey Logano in 2015 for example. When Denny was interviewed you could tell how annoyed he was, and we’ve seen him retaliate before when he spun Brad Keselowski back in 2009 at Homestead.
Denny was also in the headlines off the racetrack this week as well. On Tuesday, Bob Pockrass dropped a bombshell on Twitter regarding his team and their driver lineup, as Tyler Reddick will move from RCR to 23XI in 2024. This sent massive shockwaves throughout the racing world. No one could have expected this. This announcement leaves an awkward gap year as he will remain at RCR for one more season. According to reports, car owner Richard Childress is livid with Reddick and his representation and their relationship is beyond repair. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next season and a half and where Reddick will drive when he gets to his new team.
To tie it all together, the driver I am picking to win this weekend is none other than Denny Hamlin. The veteran driver has been phenomenal at this track, with three wins and an average finish of 4.7 in the last four races. He’s clearly driving with a chip on his shoulder and is hungry for a win. It’s been a rather inconsistent season for him as he’s 19th in points, he is however in the playoffs due to his two victories at Richmond and Charlotte in the Coke 600. He is primed to go on a run and get back in the championship hunt, and it starts here this weekend at New Hampshire.
Houston (6-2) at New York Jets (2-6)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT, Amazon Prime
BetMGM NFL odds: Jets by 2.
Against the spread: Texans 3-4-1; Jets 2-6.
Series record: Jets lead 7-3.
Last meeting: Jets beat Texans 30-6 in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Dec. 10, 2023.
Last week: Texans beat Colts 23-20; Jets lost to Patriots 25-22.
Texans offense: overall (9t), rush (18), pass (8), scoring (14).
Texans defense: overall (2), rush (13), pass (3), scoring (15t).
Jets offense: overall (24), rush (30), pass (13), scoring (25).
Jets defense: overall (4), rush (17), pass (2), scoring (11t).
Turnover differential: Texans plus-4; Jets minus-3.
RB Joe Mixon. He has carried Houston's offense in the three games since he returned from an injury and could be even more important this week after wide receiver Stefon Diggs tore the ACL in his right knee last Sunday and is out for the season. Mixon ranks third in the NFL by averaging 100.6 yards rushing a game and has had at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in three straight games.
Edge rusher Haason Reddick. After ending his lengthy contract holdout early last week, Reddick made his Jets debut and played 26 snaps on defense with two quarterback pressures while working mostly on third downs. His snaps might increase a bit Thursday and he could help the Jets get after C.J. Stroud, who has been sacked 22 times this season — tied for third most in the NFL.
Jets offensive line vs. Texans' pass rush. New York has had issues this season with injuries, consistency and protecting Aaron Rodgers. The Jets will face a tough test Thursday night against the Texans, whose 27 sacks are third in the NFL. DE Will Anderson Jr. is tied for third in the league with a career-high 7 1/2 sacks, including at least one in his past three games. DE Danielle Hunter has 5 1/2 sacks and DT Tim Settle has four, powering a formidable defensive front for Houston. Hunter leads the league with 51 quarterback pressures and Anderson is fourth with 39, the only teammates in the top 15, according to Next Gen Stats.
Diggs' injury leaves Houston without its top two receivers. Nico Collins, who leads the Texans with 567 yards receiving, is out for at least one more game after being placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. ... S Calen Bullock was limited in practice Monday and Tuesday after injuring his shoulder Sunday. … LBs Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) both missed the Colts game, but could return this week. … S Jimmie Ward could miss a fifth straight game with a groin injury. … LG Jarrett Patterson is in the concussion protocol and is likely out. … RB Dameon Pierce missed practice this week with a groin injury. ... Jets LB C.J. Mosley suffered a stinger in his neck during pregame warmups at New England and was meeting with neck and spine specialists this week. ... RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle), WR Allen Lazard (chest), DL Leki Fotu (knee) and safeties Tony Adams (hamstring) and Ashtyn Davis (concussion) all missed the game vs. the Patriots and their availability for this week was uncertain. ... K Greg Zuerlein was placed on IR. Riley Patterson and Spencer Shrader were signed to the practice squad, and one will be promoted for the game.
The Jets have won the past two meetings. ... New York won the first five meetings, including the first game between the franchises in 2003, when LaMont Jordan's late 8-yard touchdown run helped lift the Jets to a 19-14 victory. ... Zach Wilson threw two touchdown passes in the most recent meeting, a 30-6 rout by New York during which Stroud left with a concussion.
The AFC South-leading Texans have won four of their past five. ... Stroud is 2-0 with three touchdowns and zero interceptions in two career starts in prime time. He had 285 yards passing last week for his ninth career game with at least that many yards passing, which is tied for second most in the NFL since 2023. ... WR Tank Dell had a touchdown reception last week and has a TD catch in two of his past three games. ... TE Dalton Schultz had a season-high 52 yards receiving against the Colts. He has two TD receptions in each of his past two Thursday night games. ... Hunter has 10½ sacks in eight career Thursday night games. … LB Neville Hewitt, who spent the 2018-21 seasons with the Jets, forced a fumble last week. … Rookie CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high three passes defended last week. … S Jalen Pitre had his first interception of the season last week. ... S Eric Murray had seven tackles and a season-high three passes defended last week. ... New York is trying to snap a five-game skid. ... Jeff Ulbrich is 0-3 as the Jets’ interim head coach since replacing the fired Robert Saleh on Oct. 8. Ulbrich, also the team's defensive coordinator, said earlier this week he'll continue to call plays on defense. … Rodgers snapped a streak of three consecutive games with an interception. He has seven in eight games, six shy of his single-season career high set in 2008 in his first year as Green Bay’s starting quarterback. ... Rodgers hasn't passed for 300 yards since throwing for 341 against Chicago on Dec. 12, 2021 — a span of 30 regular-season games and 31 overall, including one playoff game. ... WR Garrett Wilson leads the NFL with 84 targets, 11 more than the Giants’ Malik Nabers. Wilson’s 51 receptions are second in the league behind Las Vegas’ Brock Bowers, who has 52. ... WR Davante Adams had four catches for 54 yards, giving him seven receptions for 84 yards in two games since being acquired from the Raiders. ... Second-year WR Xavier Gipson caught his first career TD pass last Sunday. ... TE Tyler Conklin has a TD catch in consecutive games after not having one since catching two TD passes in Week 8 of the 2022 season against New England. ... RB Breece Hall has 316 yards receiving, the most among NFL running backs. ... Edge rusher Will McDonald has eight sacks, second in the NFL to the Giants’ Dexter Lawrence (nine). … The Jets have only six takeaways, ranking among the fewest in the league. Backup CB Brandin Echols has New York's only two interceptions.
Houston wide receiver John Metchie is coming off a career-best three-catch game and could see more targets — and perhaps his first NFL touchdown — with both Diggs and Collins out. Might be worth a stash as a potential WR3.
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