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NASCAR Cup Series at New Hampshire: Ambetter 301 Picks, preview

NASCAR Cup Series at New Hampshire: Ambetter 301 Picks, preview
Chase Elliott recorded another win last weekend. Photo via: Wiki Commons.

The stars of the Cup Series heads to New England this weekend for the Ambetter 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. This track is precisely one mile in length with absolutely no banking. Because this track is so flat, it’s difficult to pass, so it’s important to have a good track position. One part of the racetrack that is pretty tricky is the bump on the entry of turn four. This could cause problems throughout the race.

Last week, Chase Elliott went on to win his third race of the season. He now becomes the winningest driver this season and appears to be the favorite to win the championship. Throughout the day, Chase easily had the fastest car as he led a race-high 96 laps. The biggest controversy of the race came on the last lap as Elliott threw a block on Corey Lajoie causing a crash and ending the race. Many people including myself were critical of Elliott’s move but after looking at it further, it looked like a racing deal.

Lajoie was the underdog and many people wanted to see him finally get that first career win, and he was right in the mix all the way down to the last lap. When interviewed at the end, Corey was very gracious about Chase and his decision to make the move. When asked, Lajoie responded, “I made my move and it didn’t work out, he made a good block.” It was good to see both drivers were able to come away and let bygones be bygones in the end.

Two drivers on the opposite end of the spectrum are Ross Chastain and Denny Hamlin as they had yet another dust-up. In the closing laps, Chastain slid up the track in turn three and made contact with Hamlin, knocking him into a spin and collecting Brad Keselowski as well. As we all know, these two got together in St. Louis earlier this year. Before this year, the two also got together at Darlington in a Xfinity race back in 2020. All season, Denny has been on the receiving end of Ross Chastain’s aggressive driving style, and it’s becoming more and more of an issue.

While I enjoy Ross as a driver and have followed him since his debut in the truck series back in 2011 at IRP, he isn’t doing himself any favors. We have seen all the sacrifices that Ross has made to get here, he even raced for free back in 2019 in the Xfinity Series for Chip Ganassi. The talent is unmatched as he's having a career year, but if he wants to win the championship, he’s going to have to tone it down a notch. We have seen what damage a driver holding on to a grudge can do, look at Matt Kenseth and Joey Logano in 2015 for example. When Denny was interviewed you could tell how annoyed he was, and we’ve seen him retaliate before when he spun Brad Keselowski back in 2009 at Homestead.

Denny was also in the headlines off the racetrack this week as well. On Tuesday, Bob Pockrass dropped a bombshell on Twitter regarding his team and their driver lineup, as Tyler Reddick will move from RCR to 23XI in 2024. This sent massive shockwaves throughout the racing world. No one could have expected this. This announcement leaves an awkward gap year as he will remain at RCR for one more season. According to reports, car owner Richard Childress is livid with Reddick and his representation and their relationship is beyond repair. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next season and a half and where Reddick will drive when he gets to his new team.

To tie it all together, the driver I am picking to win this weekend is none other than Denny Hamlin. The veteran driver has been phenomenal at this track, with three wins and an average finish of 4.7 in the last four races. He’s clearly driving with a chip on his shoulder and is hungry for a win. It’s been a rather inconsistent season for him as he’s 19th in points, he is however in the playoffs due to his two victories at Richmond and Charlotte in the Coke 600. He is primed to go on a run and get back in the championship hunt, and it starts here this weekend at New Hampshire.

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The competition level is about to rise. Composite Getty Image.

The Astros closed out their latest road trip with a winning record, a feat made more impressive considering the turbulence at the back of the rotation. Brandon Walter and Ryan Gusto both endured rough outings, with Walter in particular getting tagged hard. Still, Houston salvaged the finale, thanks largely to Mauricio Dubón’s breakout performance. The utilityman launched two home runs to power an offense that’s quietly been heating up for weeks.

But even with a solid finish, not everything is trending upward.

Josh Hader, who’s been one of the game’s most reliable closers this season, has begun to show signs of vulnerability. He’s allowed a home run in three of his last six outings. While his overall numbers remain strong, the long ball—a problem that plagued him last year—is starting to creep back into the picture.

As the Astros return home, the schedule offers no breather. They’ll face the Phillies and Cubs before a brief trip to Colorado to take on the struggling Rockies. After that comes a marquee series against the defending champion Dodgers in Los Angeles. With three of their next four opponents being legitimate World Series threats, the coming stretch looms large.

Can the bats keep pace?

If the last month is any indication, the Astros have reason to feel optimistic. Christian Walker has started to show signs of life after a quiet start to the season, hitting .260 with a .762 OPS and five home runs over the past 30 days. José Altuve has been scorching with a .302 average and .901 OPS in that span, while Jeremy Peña has taken things to another level, batting .384 with a 1.009 OPS.

As a team, the Astros rank 7th in OPS, 5th in runs, 3rd in batting average, and 7th in home runs over the last 30 days. It’s a surge that’s come at the right time—and one they’ll need to sustain.

The injury picture is also starting to shift in Houston’s favor.

Joe Espada told The Athletic's Chandler Rome that Christian Javier recently threw a live batting practice session, touching 95 mph as he continues his return from Tommy John surgery. JP France has thrown multiple live BPs and could be ready to help if things continue to progress with his shoulder. Luis Garcia, however, remains further away despite undergoing surgery more than two years ago. He's expected to throw a live BP this week.

Spencer Arrighetti (thumb) should be able to return in August, and Lance McCullers has resumed throwing and is currently on the 15-day IL with a foot sprain.

The Astros are winning. The offense is rolling. The reinforcements are on the way. But with a brutal stretch looming, the team’s margin for error is about to be put to the test.

There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.

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