Joey Logano. Getty Images.
This week, the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series heads for ISM Raceway for the ISM 400 in Phoenix, Arizona. This is NASCAR's semi-final race before the championship race at Homestead. Many would consider this one of the most important races of the season considering it decides who will get to race for a championship. This track is a mile and a half oval that races like a short track. Last season, this track was reconfigured and completely changed the landscape. The Finish line was moved all the way to the front stretch and both the corners were inverted. This should be interesting should we see someone try to make a last second pass now that they have more time to pull it off.
Last week, Kevin Harvick went on to win his fourth race of the season after passing his teammate Aric Almirola. This race was a wreckfest, there were plenty of big names to crash including championship favorites Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott. During the weekend, Texas Motor Speedway track officials added a tire compound to try and add more grip to the race track. This did not sit well with the cars as we saw many just spin out by themselves. The trouble area seemed to be turns three and four as that was where the majority of the wrecks were. Many fans were not happy with the product on the track but if it did do one thing - it allowed for some newer drivers to run up front such as Daniel Suarez and Willam Byron. All together though, the cream rose to the top and Kevin Harvick still had a fairly dominant race as he led 119 laps before winning and advancing to the championship race at Homestead.
As we draw closer to Homestead, many wonder what has been going on with Kyle Busch. As many know, it has been June since the 2015 NASCAR Champion has won a race and since then he has just kind of been around. He has had many moments to forget during this time such as when his engine blew at the Charlotte oval or when he ran into the back of Garrett Smithley at Las Vegas but because of the massive amount of points he has gained all throughout the season, he has been able to stay in the top four. Regardless of where he is in points, it is clear that he is in a slump and this team is doing everything they can to get him out of it as we get closer and closer to Homestead next week. We will see how he responds this week at the track he has won the last two times they have come here.
The championship picture definitely looks pretty much the same as it has been over the past two seasons as Martin Truex, Harvick, Kyle Busch and Joey Logano make up the top four spots. While Truex and Harvick are locked in with victories at Martinsville and Texas, the focus shifts to third and fourth as both Busch and Logano hold firm. After a disastrous weekend at Texas, Denny Hamlin finds himself 20 points out of the top four. While 20 points may seem like a lot to make up, it is actually fairly manageable. Should he go on to win both stages and Logano not finish top 10, he would make up the difference and move into a tie with Logano for the fourth spot. He could also finish in the top 10 in those stages as well and make a big dent in the points should Logano run into trouble but that will be tough considering how good he runs on a weekly basis. The drivers behind Hamlin are Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson. While Elliott crashed in the early stages and was never really a factor, Kyle Larson on the other hand looked like he had a car that was capable of contending for the victory. On lap 241, Larson entered pit-lane for his pit-stop and everything went off without a hitch until Bubba Wallace spun out in turn two catching Larson on the tail end of the lead lap eliminating any opportunity for a win. This caution led many to speculate that Wallace spun himself out on purpose to get a caution and not go a lap down but this has not been proven as Wallace had a flat tire before the spin. Out of the three, the driver that came out looking the best was Blaney. By no means was it the day Blaney and his Penske team would have liked to have had but overall the No. 12 had a pretty respectable race. Throughout the day, Blaney's car was not handling well at all but this team battled back and went on to a top 10 finish. It will be interesting to see how he will respond at Phoenix this week.
The driver that I predict will win this week is Denny Hamlin. As I mentioned earlier in this article, Denny has a steep path to climb to get back into the final four and a win is the only guarantee he can race for a championship. Overall, this has not been a track that he has been able to put up the best numbers but I think with the added pressure looming, this should be the car to beat. It will be interesting to see what car owner Joe Gibbs does to try and get Hamlin back into the top four considering his teammate Kyle Busch is one of the two standing in his way. Still I look for the #11 Fedex Toyota Camry to go to Victory lane and get back in the championship hunt.
(All stats and information used in this article is brought to you by the good folks at driveraverages.com and Racing-Reference.com the best website for all NASCAR stats).
.
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
The NFL Draft, NBA playoffs, and NHL playoffs all dwarf baseball in the sports pecking order this week, but that doesn’t detract from the Astros playing their best stretch of baseball in the still young season. Following up taking two of three from the previously sizzling hot Padres by sweeping the Blue Jays three straight has the Astros’ record at a just fine 13-11 as they open a three-game weekend series in Kansas City. 13-11 may not sound special, because it isn’t, but having come home from St. Louis last week with the record at 8-10 makes 13-11 a quality leap. Plus, a 13-11 pace over 162 games extrapolates to 87 wins, which last season were enough to win the American League West and for an AL Wild Card spot.
Batter up!
While no one will be confusing the potency of this Astros’ lineup with those of the 2017 or 2019 juggernauts, some welcome perking up may have kicked in, despite Yordan Alvarez still not getting rolling. After Joe Espada gave Christian Walker a “mental rest” game off Monday, Walker produced a three-hit game Tuesday and a two-hit follow-up Wednesday, including a home run. Walker’s .202 batting average and .640 OPS are still lousy, but a much lesser grade of lousy than the statistical abyss he was in starting the Toronto series. Yainer Diaz has been much worse than Walker to this point. Diaz managed at least one hit in all three games of the Jays series. Baby steps. He is still sitting on an unacceptable three walks in 78 plate appearances.
Speaking of hits and walks, Jeremy Pena carries a 14-game hitting streak into the weekend. One-quarter of the way to Joe DiMaggio’s big league record! Willy Taveras set the Astros’ record with a 30-gamer back in 2006. Pena hasn’t been crushing it during the streak, during which he has just two multi-hit games. He’s had stretches where he has hit better and slugged harder (2022 postseason anyone?), but while too small a stretch to declare a leap has been made, it is noteworthy that over the 14 games Pena has drawn six walks. That gives him eight free passes in 24 games this season. More math fun! That’s one walk drawn per three games, which over 162 games would make for 54. Last season in 157 games played Pena drew a paltry 25 walks. Add in that his defense has been superb so far this season with a number of fabulous plays made and just one error committed, and Pena could be making modest offensive improvement that makes him a meaningfully better player.
Furthermore speaking of hits and walks, it’s been a struggle on both fronts the last couple of weeks for Jose Altuve. A two-week funk does not represent a crisis, but there are troubling trends that bear watching as Altuve sets to turn 35 years old May 6. Over his last 14 games, Altuve’s OPS is a sub-Maldonadian .547. In this stretch he has two doubles as his lone extra base hits and drawn just two walks. Altuve has struck out 22 times in 24 games. Setting aside the short 2020 COVID season when Altuve never got it going, last year he had the worst strikeout percentage of his career, while his walk rate was his worst since 2015. So far this season, Altuve’s strikeout rate is more than 20 percent worse than last year’s, with his walk rate down 30 percent from 2024. He is hitting line drives at a much lower rate than ever before, and struggling to get the ball in the air. The season still isn’t 20 percent old, but since Altuve last season finished with his lowest OPS (.790, again, exempting 2020) since 2013, and his current .728 OPS is 62 points lower than that, the antennae of at least mild concern are up. This is the first season of Altuve’s five-year 125 million dollar contract extension. Remember, the Astros would not offer Kyle Tucker a contract that took him to age 35.
Bringing the heat!
Hunter Brown makes his next start Sunday in Kansas City. Good luck Royals! Until getting a doubleheader against the pathetic Rockies Thursday, K.C. was averaging under three runs per game. Brown's earned run average through five starts is 1.16! It's waaaaay early to focus on this, but the best season ERA for an Astro pitcher who qualified for the statistical lead (one inning pitched per team game played) belongs to Nolan Ryan who posted a 1.69 in the strike-shortened 1981 season. Over a full-schedule season, Justin Verlander's 1.75 in 2022 is the standard. Brown has fired 24 consecutive shutout innings. Ryan Pressly holds the Astros’ record with 38 consecutive scoreless innings pitched. Orel Hershiser set the Major League record by finishing the 1988 regular season with a ridiculous 59 straight shutout innings. Yes he won the National League Cy Young Award. The Cy Young is strictly a regular season award. Hershiser in 1988 also won the League Championship Series Most Valuable Player Award, and World Series MVP.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
_____________________________________________
*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!