Ryan Blaney is the pick to pull off the win this week. Ryanblaney.com
This Saturday, the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series heads for the bluegrass state at Kentucky speedway for the Quaker State 400. Kentucky Speedway is another 1.5 mile intermediate track, but what makes this track stand out is its extremely difficult turn three. In the exit of this corner the track becomes very flat and much more slippery. It is truly one of the toughest corners in NASCAR. Last year, it got the best of both seven-time Champion Jimmie Johnson and 2012 Champion Brad Keselowski as they were involved in a multi-car crash also involving Clint Bowyer. If a driver is able to master this corner, he should be a major factor in the race.
Last week, Erik Jones was able to claim his first career NASCAR Cup Series victory after he was able to outduel defending champion Martin Truex Jr. The race was marred by a MASSIVE 26-car mele that eliminated many of the favorites including pole winner Chase Elliott, Kurt Busch and favorite Brad Keselowski.
While there were many cars that went to the garage area, most of the drivers who were involved in the wreck were able to continue on and contend for the victory. The wreck started when Ricky Stenhouse Jr hooked the back of Keselowski on the exit of the back straightaway. It was not a good night for Stenhouse Jr.; he would go on to cause another multi-car accident involving Kyle Busch, William Byron and even race winner Jones.
In the closing stages, Jones was able to get a big push from Chris Buscher which propelled him to victory. Many considered this to be one of the bigger upsets of the season seeing how most don’t usually think of him for his restrictor plate ability. Aside from Jones, the biggest surprise of the race was the top finishers for this race just in general. Lots of drivers that we don’t usually see run up front got solid finishes. Some of those drivers were Matt DiBenedetto who came home seventh, Jeffrey Earnhardt, who finished 11th and Brendan Gaughan, who finished behind him in 12th.
One Driver who deserves a shout out is Ontario’s own D.J. Kennington. As NASCAR fans know, Kennington is not a full time driver. This season, Kennington has run seven races. At Daytona, he was able to claim his career-best 13th place finish. This race was special for him and his newly formed Gaunt Brothers Racing not only because it was their best finish but also because he was racing with a heavy heart.
Earlier this year, after a bus crash claimed the lives of 16 members of the Humboldt Broncos Hockey Team, Kennington and his team placed the Broncos logo on the hood of their car at Bristol earlier this year. After the race was over, he then auctioned off the hood of the car and donated the proceeds to the Broncos Charity foundation. This finish couldn’t have come to a better group of guys than Crew Chief Mike Hillman, team owners Marty and John Gaunt and of course their drivers Parker Kligerman and Kennington.
The favorite going into this weekend is one of the usual suspects, Martin Truex Jr. Last season, Truex completely dominated here. He led a race high 152 laps and was able to fend off Kyle Larson for the win. I suspect this weekend should be no different. As most fans know, Truex has cut his teeth on the intermediate half mile tracks like Kentucky Motor Speedway, and he has more wins on these styles of tracks than anyone else in the sport. Look for Truex to be a serious threat come Saturday.
The driver that I have winning this weekend is Ryan Blaney. The 2018 season overall has been somewhat of a disappointment for the third-year driver. Even though he has eight top 10s and three top fives, he still has yet to claim his first win of the season. I think if there is anywhere to do it, Kentucky is near the top of the list for him. Back in 2013, Ryan was able to claim his first Xfinity victory at Kentucky so this is certainly a track where he can succeed. Despite his 22.50 Finishing average here, I believe that this week should be different for him, as he did finish 10th last year. Look for Blaney to take the #12 to victory lane.
A good sleeper for this week is Darrell “Bubba” Wallace Jr. This season has had its ups and downs for the rookie, and while he has struggled at times, there have been races where he legitimately had cars good enough to run around the top 10. This week he goes to a race track where he got his best finish last year in his fourth and final start of 2017. Last year’s race really kind of put Wallace's name on the map as he was able to take home an impressive 11th place finish. I look for him to expand on that run and possibly be in contention to get a top 10. Not only has he run good at this track in the Cup series but he has also excelled in the Camping World Truck series as back in 2014 he was able to take the checkered flag and solidify his name as one of NASCAR’s brightest future stars. Look for Wallace to have a solid run come Saturday.
(All stats and information used in this article is brought to you by the good folks at driveraverages.com and Racing-Refrence.com the best website for all NASCAR stats).
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or nine games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez (though not Breggy Bad). A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.