NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round
NFL Divisional Round: Good, bad and ugly
Jan 12, 2020, 9:00 pm
NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round
Last week's Wildcard Round of the playoffs delivered some close games. All four games were decided by one possession/score. The Divisional Round decided to go in a much different direction. Here are my observations:
-Another week of football, another monster day from Titan's running back Derrick Henry. He totaled 195 yards on 30 carries. He's been their Eddie George 2.0 this season. The last time they had a bellcow running back, good defense, and a quarterback capable of making plays when need be, they were a few yards short of winning a Super Bowl. Just saying.
-Major props to 49ers brass. General manager John Lynch, head coach Kyle Shanahan, and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh have made all the right moves in building this team and dialing up the right plays. Those moves have paid off to the tune of being one win away from a Super Bowl appearance after their 27-10 win over the Vikings. This was in large part due to the rushing yardage differential stats: +165 in yards, +37 in attempts, and +17 minutes in time of possession. There's my contribution to the analytics world.
-In a quarterback dual on the "Frozen Tundra", Packers' quarterback Aaron Roders outdueled Seahawks' Russell Wilson in a 28-23 win. Both quarterbacks made great plays and kept their teams either in the lead (Rodgers) or fighting for a chance to win (Wilson). This was the lone one-score game this weekend. It came down to Rodgers finding his favorite target, Davante Adams, on the final drive for a crucial 3rd down conversion. He sealed the deal with another 3rd down conversion to Jimmy Graham a few plays later.
-Special teams is the phase of the game that people forget about. It's often critical in deciding games. While the score was 24-10 in favor of the 49ers with 1:05 left in the 3rd quarter, Vikings' punt returner Marcus Sherels muffed a punt the 49ers recovered at Viking 10 yard line. They went on to kick a field goal in what was the final score of the game. The Vikings could've cut the deficit in half. Instead, they went down three scores and never recovered.
-The Ravens made several uncharacteristic plays and mistakes that led to their one and done exit in this year's playoffs. Their three turnovers, seven penalties for 56 yards, and 2:1 pass to run ratio all led to their 28-12 upset special. This was a team that set an NFL record for rushing yards and were a +10 in the turnover department. I'll say it again: dance with the one that got you there.
-For as good as the Seahawks' defense can be, they couldn't find an answer for Davante Adams. He went for 160 yards on eight catches with two of those catches being touchdowns. He repeatedly torched the Seahawks' secondary as Rodgers owes half of his 16 completions to Adams. Oh, and Clowney still jumps offsides, just in a different uniform. That happened to move the ball a half yard closer on a 3rd&Goal from the 1-yard line greasing the skids for another Packer touchdown.
-The Packers were hit by some sort of illness this past week. While some members of the team were able to recover, right tackle Bryan Bulaga had to leave the field during warmups. While the nature of the illness wasn't revealed, it must've been something pretty bad to take him out during warmups. He was qouted as saying he felt sick when he woke up.
-The Titans were able to beat the Ravens by jumping out to a 14-0 lead and never looked back. Lamar Jackson threw an interception that was brought to their 35-yard line and led to the Titans' first touchdown. On their next possession, the Ravens decided to go for it on 4th&1 on their own 45-yard line and failed to convert. Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill connected on the most important of his eight completions with a 45-yard touchdown strike to Kalif Raymond. That sequence cost the Ravens the game.
-Vikings running back Dalvin Cook was 10th in the league in rushing yards this season with 1,135 and the team was 6th in the league with 133.3 rushing yards per game. It's hard to hit those kind of numbers when you only run the ball 10 times as a team. They went into the half down 14-10 and seemingly in striking distance. From there, they pissed their pants and never recovered. Kirk Cousins was also sacked six times. Maybe a more consistent run game would've helped that final score.
The Wildcard Round fooled us into thinking we'd have more great games this weekend. The Divisional Round laughed in our faces as it put out three games decided by multiple possessions. These games were like waiting to spend your holidays with your dysfunctional family: you already know the outcome before it's over. Thankfully the Packers and Seahawks saved the weekend like that one cool cousin does when he/she gets the family to get along right before everyone leaves. We now have a Chiefs vs Titans matchup in the AFC Championship game, and a 49ers vs Packers matchup in NFC Championship game. Three of these teams were almost expected to make it here. It's the one that wasn't (Titans) that could be the most problematic.
This week, the Houston Texans take on the Colts in a matchup with division supremacy on the line. If the Texans are able to come away with a victory, they will own the tiebreaker over Indy and enjoy a comfortable lead in the division.
However, a loss to the Colts means the Texans will be in a virtual tie with Indy in the AFC South. So what do the Texans need to do to secure a win?
On offense, they'll have to do a much better job of protecting CJ Stroud. In their last game against the Packers, Stroud faced immense pressure on third downs, with 12 of his 14 dropbacks resulting in pressure.
During one series, Stroud was flushed from the pocket and forced to scramble on three straight plays. They have to clean up the protection, or it will be another long day for the offense.
Fortunately for the Texans, this game is at home. So hopefully the communication issues the Texans o-line dealt with on the road last week won't be an issue at NRG.
Rushing attack
Houston can't afford to rely solely on Joe Mixon and the run game to carry the offense. While Mixon has been terrific, contributing significantly in recent weeks, the Texans will need a balanced attack. Which means Stroud must have time to operate in the pocket.
Bulls on parade
The defense last week was another story for the Texans. They played well against Green Bay, limiting them to 24 points. This week, they face a very different type of quarterback. Anthony Richardson is dead last in passer rating and completion percentage, so that's definitely working in their favor.
We know what Richardson can do with his legs, and Indy is expecting running back Jonathan Taylor to return from an ankle injury, so the rushing defense will be tested.
Richardson's accuracy is certainly a weakness, but he does throw a good deep ball that gave the defense problems in Week 1 this season.
What does Vegas think?
The Texans are favored by 5 points and the total is set at 45.5 points.
This is one video you don't want to miss as we share our in-depth breakdown of the game, as well as our predictions for Sunday's contest.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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