Houston has four potential seeds pending Sunday's result

Ranking the Texans playoff scenarios

Andre Hal
Zach Tarrant/Houstontexans.com

The Houston Texans enter Sunday's game with the Jacksonville Jaguars with a chance to improve on what is already Bill O'Brien's best season as the head man of the Texans. They have double-digit regular season wins for the first time under O'Brien and a chance at a home playoff game is still very much alive. Unfortunately for the Texans, so is going on the road as a wildcard team.

Here are the Texans playoff scenarios ranked from least likely to most likely

Top seed in the AFC by virtue of Texans win + Chiefs loss + Chargers loss + Patriots loss/tie

This actually has a decent chance to happen, but is pretty unlikely. The Texans can absolutely, and should, beat the Jaguars on Sunday but to end up as the top team in their conference they will need lots of help. Kansas City hosts the Raiders on Sunday and while Jon Gruden's crew has played a bit better lately, they don't seem to be a match for a Chiefs team that could wrap up the top seed in the conference. The other must for this scenario is New England losing to the Jets at home. New York's Sam Darnold has played great the past few weeks but that hasn't resulted in wins, just good stat lines and hope. A week to rest and then hosting a game would do wonders for the Texans in a potential Super Bowl push. It would seem most likely they would host the Chiefs or Chargers in the divisional round who would have a decent chance to beat the Ravens despite playing them in Baltimore.

Second seed in the AFC by virtue of Texans win + Patriots loss/tie

This is where the losses to the Titans, Giants, and Eagles really hurt. If any of those games had gone the other way the Texans are in the driver's seat for the first playoff bye in franchise history. As mentioned above the Texans need the Jets to beat the Patriots or tie them. That's a tall task for a bad Jets team despite Darnold's stellar play as of late. It would seem most likely they would host the Patriots after the bye who would beat up on the Titans/Colts winner.

Sixth seed in the AFC by virtue of Texans loss + Titans/Colts win

This is the nightmare scenario for the Texans. If they lose then have to wait close to eight hours to find out where they are headed the following week would absolutely stink. They would have a decent chance to beat both Tennessee and Indianapolis on the road but it would be one of the bigger disappointments in franchise history. This isn't as unlikely as the above two but it seems unlikely the Texans drop a game at home to the Jaguars when they have so much to play for in the final week of the regular season. Also, if the Texans lose it is likely a physical affair with Jacksonville and they're already relly banged up. They would then likely play the early game on Saturday as well. Absolutely terrifying to think Houston loses and is the sixth seed.

Third seed in the AFC by virtue of Texans win + Patriots win or Texans tie + Patriots tie

Hosting during wild card weekend is absolutely the most likely scenario for the Texans. This would be hosting the Colts or Titans and then likely heading to New England to face the Patriots. It is a fun road in this scenario to hosting the AFC championship should the Texans win two games and see the Chargers as the five seed win two games. I am a bit ahead of myself as Houston has to beat Jacksonville but they should do it with the three seed hanging in the air. It is Blake Bortles standing between the Texans and their fifth home playoff game in franchise history. They would host the winner of the Titans and Colts game, likely Indinapolis.

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Will the Texans respond after the Ravens debacle? Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images.

The Texans used to market their matchups with the Titans as the "TnT" rivalry. There is nothing explosive or even interesting about Sunday’s meeting in the regular season finale. The number of people in Houston who are ex-Oilers fans has steadily diminished over the years. Those who remain will be hard-pressed to work up any bile for this game. Most Texans fans won’t be watching. The Texans are again champions of the garbage AFC South, but a season that opened with five wins in six games has devolved to the point where the Texans may be home underdogs against whichever Wild Card round opponent shows up here next weekend. Are you fired up?!? For their part, the Titans are a Titanic-esque 3-13, with one of those wins coming 32-27 at NRG Stadium. If you’d like to attend in Nashville Sunday (why you would I have no idea), a ticket can be had for eleven bucks, including the fees larded on by the resale sites.

Some would make the argument that the Texans need to play their starters in this game to try to rediscover some mojo after the Baltimore Ravens brutalized them on Christmas Day. C.J. Stroud hasn’t had a good game in over a month, and against the Ravens was plain awful. The all too often pathetic Texans’ pass blocking has done damage to Stroud. One wonders if Nick Caserio has modified his arrogant and/or ignorant position of several weeks ago that those critical of the offensive line were using a “lazy narrative.” The losses of Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell for huge chunks of the season have hurt as well. Still, Stroud deserves blame too for the offense’s overall mediocrity. He has been noticeably less accurate this season. After Stroud’s phenomenal rookie season, only acolytes would characterize this sophomore campaign as better than disappointing. Last season Stroud was named a Pro Bowler (granted, as a replacement for Patrick Mahomes who was occupied preparing to win another Super Bowl). This season if six AFC quarterbacks were named Pro Bowlers Stroud still wouldn’t make the cut. Within the conference among quarterbacks with enough playing time to qualify in the rate statistical categories, the only guys behind Stroud in QBR: largely washed-up Aaron Rodgers, Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew, and Will Levis.

Would Stroud benefit from a good game against a feeble opponent? He’s taken 52 sacks this season. Why expose him to injury risk in a game where the outcome means nothing. With 53-man gameday rosters in the NFL teams can’t sit all their starters, but the most important Texans should leave their helmets and shoulder pads in Houston this weekend: Stroud, Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, and Derek Stingley Jr.. I’ll guess most play some. For instance, Mixon needs seven yards rushing for a 1000-yard season. 1000 yards over 17 games is not a big deal (59 yards per game does it), though Mixon missing three games to injury does mean he has been of the quality generally associated with 1000 yard running backs.

Danielle Hunter would like a word

On the subject of Pro Bowlers, the NFL named the squads Thursday. Thankfully there is no more hideous Pro Bowl game, but the recognition is still meaningful. Laremy Tunsil and Stingley got starting nods, with Mixon and Collins named backups. I imagine a few eyes rolled at reading Tunsil’s selection. Tunsil is a very good tackle who has mostly cleaned up his embarrassing early season false start problems. Should he be a Pro Bowler? It’s not absurd, though as one frame of reference Pro Football Focus ranks Tunsil the 18th best offensive tackle in the league heading into this weekend. Mixon’s selection is questionable but that guy runs hard and has pretty much been exactly what the Texans hoped for when they added him. This is the third consecutive season that Mixon has not fumbled. Collins missing five games makes his choice a non-no brainer (Jaguars rookie Brian Thomas had a strong case), but over the 11 games he has played Collins has been sensational. Stingley has been excellent in this his first healthy season, after missing eight games as a rookie and six last year.

The way the roster is constructed, no Texan was blatantly snubbed, though Danielle Hunter can rightfully ask "What about me?" relative to the Raiders' Maxx Crosby. Will Anderson cannot. A snub exists when a player is omitted for a clearly less deserving player. Attendance is part of the grade. Anderson has played a tick under 55 percent of the Texans’ defensive snaps. Hunter has played over 73 percent. That’s a difference of almost 200 plays. Defensive end selectees Crosby, Myles Garrett, and Trey Hendrickson are all outstanding, all have been on the field for more than 200 plays more than Anderson, and none of them benefit from having a Hunter-caliber d-line mate.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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