Houston has four potential seeds pending Sunday's result
Ranking the Texans playoff scenarios
Dec 28, 2018, 8:27 am
Zach Tarrant/Houstontexans.com
The Houston Texans enter Sunday's game with the Jacksonville Jaguars with a chance to improve on what is already Bill O'Brien's best season as the head man of the Texans. They have double-digit regular season wins for the first time under O'Brien and a chance at a home playoff game is still very much alive. Unfortunately for the Texans, so is going on the road as a wildcard team.
Here are the Texans playoff scenarios ranked from least likely to most likely
Top seed in the AFC by virtue of Texans win + Chiefs loss + Chargers loss + Patriots loss/tie
This actually has a decent chance to happen, but is pretty unlikely. The Texans can absolutely, and should, beat the Jaguars on Sunday but to end up as the top team in their conference they will need lots of help. Kansas City hosts the Raiders on Sunday and while Jon Gruden's crew has played a bit better lately, they don't seem to be a match for a Chiefs team that could wrap up the top seed in the conference. The other must for this scenario is New England losing to the Jets at home. New York's Sam Darnold has played great the past few weeks but that hasn't resulted in wins, just good stat lines and hope. A week to rest and then hosting a game would do wonders for the Texans in a potential Super Bowl push. It would seem most likely they would host the Chiefs or Chargers in the divisional round who would have a decent chance to beat the Ravens despite playing them in Baltimore.
Second seed in the AFC by virtue of Texans win + Patriots loss/tie
This is where the losses to the Titans, Giants, and Eagles really hurt. If any of those games had gone the other way the Texans are in the driver's seat for the first playoff bye in franchise history. As mentioned above the Texans need the Jets to beat the Patriots or tie them. That's a tall task for a bad Jets team despite Darnold's stellar play as of late. It would seem most likely they would host the Patriots after the bye who would beat up on the Titans/Colts winner.
Sixth seed in the AFC by virtue of Texans loss + Titans/Colts win
This is the nightmare scenario for the Texans. If they lose then have to wait close to eight hours to find out where they are headed the following week would absolutely stink. They would have a decent chance to beat both Tennessee and Indianapolis on the road but it would be one of the bigger disappointments in franchise history. This isn't as unlikely as the above two but it seems unlikely the Texans drop a game at home to the Jaguars when they have so much to play for in the final week of the regular season. Also, if the Texans lose it is likely a physical affair with Jacksonville and they're already relly banged up. They would then likely play the early game on Saturday as well. Absolutely terrifying to think Houston loses and is the sixth seed.
Third seed in the AFC by virtue of Texans win + Patriots win or Texans tie + Patriots tie
Hosting during wild card weekend is absolutely the most likely scenario for the Texans. This would be hosting the Colts or Titans and then likely heading to New England to face the Patriots. It is a fun road in this scenario to hosting the AFC championship should the Texans win two games and see the Chargers as the five seed win two games. I am a bit ahead of myself as Houston has to beat Jacksonville but they should do it with the three seed hanging in the air. It is Blake Bortles standing between the Texans and their fifth home playoff game in franchise history. They would host the winner of the Titans and Colts game, likely Indinapolis.
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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