An upset of New England and Texans previous follies pave way for Jackson and Mahomes

Ravens, Chiefs await winners of Wildcard Weekend

Ravens, Chiefs await winners of Wildcard Weekend
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Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes

The AFC playoff picture is set.

Dolphins do it big

DeVante Parker worked potential Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore and the ageless wonder Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 320 including the above score that would decide the game. The Dolphins looked anything but a tanking team on their way to hanging with the Patriots and handing the Pats a loss that put them in danger of missing a bye for the first time since 2009.

The Patriots have never won the Super Bowl without having a bye. They have never made it to the Super Bowl in the Brady era without the bye. New England will host

Chiefs take bye from Pats, send Rivers home sad

Philip Rivers maybe finished his career with the Chargers with an interception as the Chiefs were too much for the Chargers in the season finale. A win and Patriots loss would get the Chiefs a bye for the second time with Patrick Mahomes as their starter. Mahomes and company did their part while getting help from the Dolphins.

The Chiefs will finish as the two seed with Baltimore the one seed. The Chiefs were the first team to hand the Ravens a loss this year, but that was in Kansas City. If the Chiefs get another shot at the Ravens it will be in Baltimore this time.

This is as tough a 1-2 punch at the top of the AFC that we have seen in a long time. The Chiefs have it going on both sides of the ball while the Ravens will get two weeks of rest after taking it easy in the final week of the regular season.

Texans early season stumbles doom bye chances

The Texans started A.J. McCarron in a game that ultimately meant nothing for them. The Titans would win and secure the final AFC playoff spot.

It should have meant more for the Texans.

Houston has to be kicking themselves for two really hard to understand losses on their schedule. Early in the year they laid an egg against Kyle Allen and the Panthers and later in the year Denver came to town and Drew Lock lit the Texans up. They were two really bad losses and ultimately cost the Texans at a meaningful game in week 17 that could have had the Texans in a position for a bye.

Bill O'Brien has won four division crowns but he has never played week 17 controlling his own destiny for a bye. That puts much more pressure on the matchup with the Bills next weekend.

Texans hosting Bills

Josh Allen feels like a bad matchup for the Texans defense. He likes to toss bombs and the Texans have been known to blow a coverage or two. He also has a dangerous slot weapon in Cole Beasley and a tight end he trusts to make plays in Dawson Knox. Devin Singletary and Frank Gore provide a very solid rushing attack with Singletary shouldering the load more lately.

The Bills defense is fantastic this season. Led by Tre'Davious White in the secondary and an underrated safety duo the Bills are a nightmare for passing games. They are one of three teams to allow less than 200 passing yards per game this season. A few weeks ago the Ravens struggled to move the ball and settled for 24 points in their win over Buffalo.

The Texans will be mocked heading into this game and most will expect them to lose the game. Under Bill O'Brien they have lost every game in the playoffs when facing the team's regular starting quarterback. Last year, the Colts embarrassed the Texans. J.J. Watt should make his return to the field in this game. With a week of rest under their belts for their key players, the Texans have to show up better than their previous playoff trips under O'Brien.

It isn't crazy to think the Texans might have too much on offense for the Bills but Buffalo can slow down Watson and company and a defensive score would really set the Bills up for an upset victory.

Patriots hosting Titans

The Patriots have to contend with the toughest possible sixth seeded team. The Titans have been red hot with Ryan Tannehill under center and boast a formidable passing attack as well as a solid rushing attack. Tom Brady won't be able to keep up with the Titans if they are scoring at will.

The Patriots defense is the much better unit but the Titans have had plenty of successful bend-don't-break games including a win vs Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes. That was at home though, this will be in New England. Tannehill was frustrated earlier in December by a beaten up Texans defense, it would stand to reason the Patriots have enough to slow down the Tennessee offense. However, Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins put on the Patriots in a must-win for the bye scenario. Perhaps there are more cracks in than formidable defense than recently imagined.

It would be a real surprise if the Tannehill revival tour went to New England and got a win.

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How Rockets' latest move could say a lot about what’s next

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Astros keep doing this, and it’s getting hard to ignore

The Rockets are in it to win it this year. Composite Getty Image.

While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.

The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.

Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.

As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.

The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.

VanVleet signs extension

Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.

For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!

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