Putting it in Perspective

Recapping the Antonio Brown off-season

Recapping the Antonio Brown off-season
Getty Images

Antonio Brown

Antonio Brown's off-season has been one for the record books. From getting frost bite on his feet, to retirement talk over his helmet, to showing up for training camp in a hot air balloon, to publicly posting his fines from Raiders management… it's been quite the ride. That quick summary I just gave doesn't even mention Brown's appearance on the TV show the Masked Singer, his trade demands from Pittsburgh (and Oakland), or his war of words with Ben Roethlisberger.

At the time of writing this article it appears that the story has finally reached its conclusion as Brown signed a 1-year deal to join the Patriots. However, there appears to be a lot of misconceptions out there regarding what happened. In the world of Instagram, twitter, and TMZ; it appears we focused so much on Brown's childish antics that we lost track of some important facts. So, to counteract that I offer the following to help put things in perspective.

1. Antonio Brown was certainly cocky, but did he deserve to be? How good is Antonio Brown really?

On August 19th Brown posted an image on Instagram which shows him to be the #1 wide receiver for receptions, yards, and TDs since 2010. While his stats are true, the approach of "since 2010" is a strange way to compare yourself to your competition. Instead let's look at Brown's first 9 seasons and compare it to some of the all-time greats.

Stats for first 9 seasons in NFL:

  • Antonio Brown - 837 Rec - 11,207 Yards – 74 TDs
  • Larry Fitzgerald -764 Rec - 10,413 Yards – 77 TDs
  • Jerry Rice - 708 Rec - 11,776 Yards – 118 TDs
  • Randy Moss - 676 Rec - 10,700 Yards – 101 TDs
  • Terrell Owens - 669 Rec - 9,772 Yards – 95 TDs
  • Isaac Bruce - 619 Rec - 9,480 Yards – 63 TDs
  • Tim Brown - 495 Rec - 7,180 Yards – 55 TDs

Brown's numbers are in line with and in most cases ahead of some the best to ever play the game. To put this in perspective for us Houstonians; DeAndre Hopkins would need to average 103 Rec – 1,257 Yards – 9 TDs for the next 3 years to match what Brown has already accomplished. Possible, but not easy.

2. Brown threatened to retire over his helmet. Is he insane?

The majority of America heard this story and laughed. The NFL adopted a rule that would force Brown (and other players such as Rodgers and Brady) to wear a newer model helmet to meet updated safety standards. While most players complied, Brown fought back and threatened to retire. He ended up skipping a few Raider's events leading to fines and his eventual leaving of the team. Yes, for most of us this sounds like a stupid reaction. Personally, I thought he had a point.

To offer up a comparison: In 1979 the National Hockey League (NHL) enacted a rule requiring the wearing of helmets for anyone entering the league after that date. This meant that all the current players were grandfathered in and had a choice if they wanted to continue to play without one. Why do this? Because change isn't easy. The league wanted to be safe, but they also wanted to keep up the level of play and knew there might be adverse side-effects to this change.

Now that you have that comparison, try to put yourself in Brown's shoes. Imagine that after 9 years of playing in the league you are told that not only is the helmet you wore not safe (meaning you could have long lasting problems) but that this new helmet could affect your range of vision and comfort on the field. Then when you complained about it, imagine you were basically ignored by NFL management. Wouldn't you feel disrespected? In the end the situation worked out for Brown financially with a helmet company stepping up and paying him to wear their brand. However, Brown's reputation has taken a hit that may one day affect his Hall of Fame chances.

3. Now that he signed with the Patriots, why should we care?

Wide receivers usually get better with age. In the first section I compared Brown to some of the all-time greats. While I was busy manually adding up 9 years of stats one thing became clear, most of those wide receivers had their best statistical season in year 10 or after. Here are a few examples:

  • Jerry Rice (year 11) – 122 Rec – 1848 Yards – 15 TDs
  • Tim Brown (Year 10) – 104 Rec – 1408 Yards – 5 TDs
  • Randy Moss (Year 10) – 98 Rec – 1493 Yards – 23 TDs

The scariest comparison on that list is Randy Moss who Brown appears to be emulating. In 2007 Moss left Oakland, joined Tom Brady and the Patriots, and then went on to be part of the 16-0 patriots. And by the way, Moss' 23 TDs remain the single season record today.

Final verdict - Brown may have come off as crazy in the media (and he certainly might be) but he is a great player who should still have a lot left in the tank. The league should be worried that the aging Belichick/Brady dynasty just got the player they needed to fight off father time.


Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

Can the Astros overcome the loss of Bregman? Composite Getty Image.

So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.

Reminders...

Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.

It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.

For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.

Who's on third?

Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.

There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.

Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!

New beginnings

Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!

Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!

*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!

https://houston.sportsmap.com/advertise

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome