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The Rockets aren’t back, but they are making strides

The Rockets aren’t back, but they are making strides
James Harden's return has been big for the Rockets. Tim Warren/Getty Images

After starting the season 1-5, the Houston Rockets have now won three games in a row, including Monday night’s 98-94 nail-biter against the Indiana Pacers. It took some time and important guys returning from injury, but the Rockets are finally starting to look like a decent basketball team again. They still aren’t near the team they were last year, but with how bad they looked this time last week, "decent" is a marked improvement.

It should be noted that two of Houston’s three consecutive victories came against the Brooklyn Nets and the Chicago Bulls - two teams poised to enter the lottery at the end of the year. The Rockets still have a losing record at 4-5 with a -4.8 point differential, but they’re headed in the right direction and that’s all head coach Mike D’Antoni could ask for.

Getting guys back

Probably the biggest reason for Houston’s turnaround is the return of James Ennis and James Harden. The Rockets have been a miserable defensive team in Ennis’ absence, who was brought in this summer to be a replacement to forward Trevor Ariza in the starting lineup. In October, the Rockets were the 25th ranked defense in the league, giving up 113.3 points per 100 possessions. Since Ennis returned to the starting lineup, the Rockets are the sixth best defense in the league, only giving up 103.2 points per 100 possessions.

That’s a staggering 10 point swing. If you you take it one step further and isolate the games where Ennis plays, the Rockets are defending 4.8 points per 100 possessions better when he’s on the court versus off the court. He’s clearly a super important player to Houston’s switch-everything scheme. (As an aside, Houston’s switches look a lot crisper as of late.)

It doesn’t take a genius to understand why missing Harden might be a problem. As good as Chris Paul is, Harden is and always will be Houston’s foundation. The entire offense starts and finishes around Harden and when he missed games, the Rockets just struggled to find consistent scoring across the board. Since his return, Harden is averaging 26.5 PPG and 6.5 APG on 67.1% true shooting and the Rockets are playing 10.1 points per 100 possessions better as a team when he’s on the floor.

Reducing roles for Melo and MCW

Injuries in the NBA suck, but they suck even more when you don’t have guys who can adequately fill roles for you when key guys are gone. When Carmelo Anthony was signed back in August, it was clear early on that the role the Rockets had in mind involved him coming off the bench. So when he was asked to start for Houston, it only exasperated Houston’s early defensive struggles. Since  Ennis has come back,  Anthony has looked stellar in his bench role:

17.7 PPG

5.3 RPG

39.1% from 3-PT range

69.6% True Shooting

The Rockets have simplified Anthony’s role by taking away the burden of shot creation against starting lineups and made him a player on the second unit that can spot-up for open 3s and create only on occasion. Their defense has also looked a lot better since he took the bench.

Michael-Carter Williams on the other hand, is a different story. Williams was brought in to be a fourth, defensive-minded guard on the second unit and so far, he’s just not been impactful enough to justify playing. Mike D’Antoni was faced with no other options but to play him heavy minutes during Houston’s injury spell as Chris Paul and Eric Gordon couldn’t both play 48 minutes a night. When he played, he shrunk the floor for the Rockets due to his inability to hit open 3-pointers. Defenders sagged off of him and Houston was left to effectively play 4 on 5 and their offense struggled for it.

With the Rockets returning close to full-health, they’ve effectively phased Williams out of the rotation in favor of more reliable floor spacers.

Gary Clark, Gary Clark, and more Gary Clark

Rarely do you see Mike D’Antoni trust a young player the way he’s trusted 23-year-old Gary Clark these past three games. The Rockets seemed to have found a diamond in the rough in the form of a two-way contract guy who can defend the perimeter with extraordinary instincts for a player of his age. He’s 6’8” with a 6’10” wingspan and looks to be capable of defending multiple positions, which is tailor-made for Houston’s system.

The undrafted rookie has seen an increase in minutes by the game:

9:02 against Brooklyn on Nov. 2

21:09 against Chicago on Nov. 3

23:30 against Indiana on Nov. 5

The Rockets are defending 13.1 points per 100 possessions better Clark is on the floor for the season which is unheard of. If you isolate it even further to the last three games, it’s 18.4 points per 100 possessions. It seems the Rockets may have found their Trevor Ariza replacement in Ennis, but if Gary Clark keeps defending like this and getting minutes, they may have also found some facsimile of a Luc Mbah a Moute replacement.

Now, it’s early. And the Rockets are having to fill minutes without Eric Gordon due to knee soreness, but quality young players have found ways to crack D’Antoni’s rotation before so it’s not unheard of.

The Rockets still have a lot of work to do before we consider them a good team again, but progress has been made. For a team that was as bad as Houston was last week, progress is all you could ask for at this point.

 

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The Astros need to turn things around in a hurry. Composite Getty Image.

The Astros have already been swept in four series this season. They were swept in four series all of last season. As Mexico City says bienvenidos to the Astros this weekend, there are certainly more than a few folks fretting that the Astros are already close to saying adios to playoff hopes. The Astros are not at the point of no return, though one can see it out there on the horizon. It wouldn’t take another month of their garbage level 7-19 performance for the season to be essentially down the drain.

If the Astros were in the American League East, they’d already be ten games out of second place. But they’re not! If in the AL Central they’d be eleven and a half games back of Cleveland. But they’re not! Dozens of teams have rebounded to win divisions from larger deficits much later in the season than the Astros face presently. The Seattle Mariners lead the thus far weak AL West at 13-12. The Astros being six and a half games in arrears of the M’s and six back of the Texas Rangers in late April is far from optimal but nowhere near devastating.

Multiple media outlets have noted how few teams historically have started a season in as stumblebum a fashion as the 2024 Astros and wound up making the playoffs. What every outlet I have seen noting that failed to include: this is just the third season since Major League Baseball added a third Wild Card to each league’s postseason field. So, while 7-19 out of the gate is indisputably awful, it is not the death knell to the extent it has been over generations of MLB.

The issue isn’t where the Astros sit in the standings, it’s that they have played atrocious baseball and aren’t providing reason for optimism that a stark turnaround is imminent. The starting rotation is the best hope. Justin Verlander has made two starts. Framber Valdez rejoins the rotation Sunday. Cristian Javier should be a week or so away. Obviously, Ronel Blanco isn’t going to continue pitching as well as he has through his first four starts. But if he is a good number four starter, that’s fine if the top three coming into the season pitch to reasonably hoped for form.

Hunter Brown simply is not a good big league pitcher. Maybe he someday fulfills his potential, but the data at this point are clear. What can Brown do for you? Not much. Spencer Arrighetti needs better command to be a good big league starter. J.P. France was a revelation over his first 17 starts last season, but since has looked like the guy who posted underwhelming numbers when in the minor leagues. If the Astros wind up with 50-plus starts from Brown/Arrighetti/France their goose will probably be cooked.

The only MLB teams with worse staff earned run averages than the Astros’ horrific 5.07 are the Chicago White Sox (Wait! They have Martin Maldonado!) and Colorado Rockies. At 3-22 the White Sox are on an early pace to post the worst record in the history of Major League Baseball. The Rockies never have a chance to post good pitching stats because of the mile high offensive freak show environment in Denver.

Way to go, Joe

Props to Joe Espada for his conviction in making what he believed to be the right call in pulling Verlander after four and a third innings Thursday at Wrigley Field. Verlander allowed no runs but had reached 95 pitches in just the second outing of the injury-delayed start to his season. Not easy for a rookie manager skippering what has been a Titanic journey thus far to pull a surefire Hall of Famer who was two outs away from qualifying for a win. Many were no doubt poised to destroy Espada had Rafael Montero given up the lead in the fifth. Verlander was angry at being pulled from any chance at his 259th career win. Understood, but the manager’s job is to make the decisions he thinks are in the ballclub’s overall best interest. That Montero and Bryan Abreu combined to blow the lead in the sixth is immaterial.

Then there's the offense…

Six runs total the last four games. Scored more than four runs in just one of the last nine games. Timely hitting largely non-existent.

At last check Alex Bregman still hawks that “Breggy Bomb” salsa. At the plate, he’s been mostly stuck in “Breggy Bum” mode, including zero bombs (home runs). 23 games played without a homer is Bregman’s longest drought since 2017 when he had separate 35 and 27 game stretches between dingers. Bregman has a history of slow first months of the season, but never anything as inept as he’s posted thus far. A litany of lazy fly balls, infield pops, and routine grounders add up to a .216 batting average and feeble .566 OPS. Reference point: Martin Maldonado’s worst OPS season with the Astros was .573. If Bregman was a young guy handed a starting job coming out of spring training, if a viable alternative were available, there’s a chance he’d be a Sugar Land Space Cowboy right now. Bregman’s track record makes it a decent bet that he winds up with decent numbers, but nothing special. Certainly nothing remotely worth the 10 years 300 million dollars or whatever Bregman and agent Scott Boras intend(ed) to seek on the free agent market this coming offseason. Two hits Thursday did get Bregman to the 1000 hit plateau for his career.

Despite arriving south of the border with his batting average at .346, even Jose Altuve has his warts. With runners in scoring position, Altuve has one hit this season. One. In 16 at bats. Small sample size, but it counts. That’s .063. Yordan Alvarez has been no great shakes either, five for 24 (.208) with RISP.

One wonders what would happen if the Astros got a hold of and “lost” Jose Abreu’s passport/visa this weekend in Mexico City and Abreu couldn’t get back into the U.S. after the two-game set with the Rockies.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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