Work in progress
Rockets believe they haven't reached their "peak" yet
Jan 7, 2020, 4:33 am
Work in progress
The Houston Rockets have won 7 out of their last 10 games and on Sunday night, they climbed to the third seed in the Western Conference. All things considered, that's a pretty good spot for a title contender to be in early January. However, if you ask them, they have higher aspirations than that.
"Not bad," said Mike D'Antoni said at practice. "We want to be first. We still have a goal to finish first. [It's] definitely doable."
As it stands, the Rockets are 4.5 games behind the first seeded Los Angeles Lakers. It's not impossible to catch up, but it will require a high level of excellence to close out the season. It would be a level that they themselves will tell you they haven't exhibited yet.
"We still haven't hit our peak yet," said Eric Gordon. "We're doing what we need to do as far as winning games, but we haven't had games where we've shown complete dominance."
Eric Gordon: "We still haven't hit our peak yet. We're doing what we need to do as far as winning games, but we hav… https://t.co/CKzQ1Gycdo— Salman Ali (@Salman Ali) 1578333904.0
Gordon is spot on when he discusses the Rockets' lack of dominant games this season. Though the Rockets are the third seed in the Western Conference, they trail teams like the Clippers (fourth seed) and Mavericks (sixth seed) in Net RTG, per cleaningtheglass.com. When you subtract garbage time, the Rockets are only beating teams by 4.9 points per 100 possessions. There are five teams in the NBA with higher differentials and the top two (Boston and Milwaukee) have nearly double the number.
"We'll be able to tell by how much we're clicking by having big leads in a game, sustaining a lead throughout the game, and having good starts," said Gordon. "That's when I can tell that we're locked in and really focused on what we need to do to win a championship."
As Gordon mentioned, the Rockets have not started games as well as they would like to. In first quarters this season, Houston is barely edging out their opponents (2.9 points per 100 possessions - 11th in the NBA). They tend to ramp it up in the second quarter (8.0 net rating - 6th), they peak in the third quarter (12.0 net rating - 4th), and then let go of the rope in a major way in fourth quarters (-2.3 net rating - 21st). The bottom completely falls out, specifically on defense where the Rockets have allowed 111.8 points per 100 possessions in fourth quarters (25th). This kind of inconsistent effort has contributed to why the Rockets haven't blown out teams as much as they would like.
However, there's still time to change that and it starts with convincingly beating bad teams. This is something the Rockets have struggled mightily with this season. Among the top six teams in the Western Conference, the Rockets have the worst winning percentage against below .500 teams (16-6 record).
"That's been our achilles heel since I've been here - kind of playing down to our competition," said P.J. Tucker. "For us, I think it's more challenging to win those games, because in all the big games, we usually play well. In not so big games, we don't bring as much energy, as much focus, and we tend to get in trouble. So, it's just the focus."
They will have an opportunity to improve upon that record this month as four out of their next five opponents are below .500. The Hawks in particular have the worst winning percentage in the NBA this season (8-29 record). There's no such thing as a guaranteed win in the NBA, but the Hawks are close. Houston dismantled Atlanta on November 30th (final score of 158-111), but as Tucker said, the Rockets can't rest on their laurels.
"Usually in those games we don't get off to a great start," continued Tucker. "When teams aren't doing so well, they get it going early. Then, they'll be trouble later in the game. So, we'll look to be aggressive early for sure."
To Houston's credit, they've played most of the season without a healthy roster. Wednesday will mark the third straight game since Clint Capela and Eric Gordon both returned to the lineup. They still have time to correct their inconsistencies and try and reach a new level of excellence if they hoan in on their defense and late game issues.
"The season is going to be the season," said Tucker. "We're going to have ups and downs. As long as everybody can stay consistent, as long as we stay healthy, I think we'll keep improving and keep looking better."
The Houston Astros (20-19) are just 4–6 over their last 10 games, but the numbers tell a more encouraging story. Despite the record, Houston is slowly but surely gaining ground in the AL West, sitting just two games back with a division-best +21 run differential. The standings may not fully reflect it yet, but the Astros are showing clear signs of being on the other side of their early offensive struggles.
Through the first month and change, the team’s season-long offensive stats still look pedestrian—14th in OPS (.697), 21st in slugging (.375), 20th in runs scored (163), and just 25th in home runs (33). But zoom in on the last 15 games, and the picture shifts dramatically.
In that span, the Astros have quietly put together one of the most productive offenses in baseball. And that's with Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve missing time due to injury. Houston ranks 4th in OPS (.805), 6th in slugging (.442), 7th in runs (64), and 5th in doubles (22). For a team with playoff expectations, that kind of turnaround is exactly what fans have been hoping for.
The resurgence has been powered in part by rising bats in the middle of the lineup. Christian Walker, who looked stuck in a rut early on, has caught fire over the past week, hitting .385 with a .500 slugging percentage over his last 7 games. Yainer Diaz is heating up too, hitting .310 with a .448 slug over that same stretch. Zoom out a little further, and Diaz has been even better—.339 average and .559 slugging over his last 15 games. His bat is starting to match the hype.
On the mound, the Astros have had their share of turbulence, particularly in Lance McCullers Jr.’s rocky return. Saturday’s 13–9 loss to the Reds underscored some of those struggles. McCullers failed to escape the first inning, giving up walks and hitting a batter before allowing a barrage of hits. Across his two starts since returning from injury, the right-hander has walked three batters and hit one in each outing.
Even so, Houston's pitching remains a strength overall. The Astros rank 8th in team ERA and lead the majors in WHIP (1.14), while holding opponents to the second-lowest batting average (.213). The bullpen, in particular, has been nails. Steven Okert, Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, and Brian King have all posted ERAs of 1.59 or lower, keeping games within reach when starters falter.
There’s still work to do, and the standings don’t lie. But if the last two weeks are any indication, Houston is turning the corner. The bats are waking up, the bullpen is elite, and the rotation has room to get healthy and sharper. It might not show up in the win column just yet, but make no mistake—the Astros are trending in the right direction.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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