The Pallilog
Rockets find themselves in a familiar position. Will the result be different this time?
May 10, 2019, 6:25 am
Two years ago Saturday the Rockets suffered the most pathetic loss in franchise history. Down three games to two in the Western Conference semifinals, the Rockets had a home game to win and force a decisive seventh game. They were playing a San Antonio Spurs team without its best player (an injured Kawhi Leonard). The Spurs humiliated the Rockets 114-75. James Harden made two field goals the whole game (two for eleven from the field).
That was then this is now. The Rockets trail three games to two in the Western Conference semifinals, with a home game to win and force a decisive seventh game. The two-time defending NBA Champion Golden State Warriors are without their best player (an injured Kevin Durant). So now what?
Obviously the Warriors can win at Toyota Center. Friday night's game either extends or ends the Warriors' amazing NBA record streak of 20 consecutive playoff series in which they have won at least one road game. With Durant sidelined by his strained right calf, the Rockets are a bigger favorite in game six than either team was in the first five games. Add it all up, and if the Rockets don't force game seven it will be widely viewed as a colossal choke job.
That is too simplistic. Could they choke by, say, missing 27 consecutive three point shots? I guess. Just remember that before they had KD the Warriors won a title then added a 73-9 season and another Finals appearance. If Stephen Curry came out of his poor play rut in the fourth quarter of game five, he, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green can lead the way to victory though this squad is not as great as those teams of three and four years ago.
James Harden has an unfortunate track record of clunker games in closeout losses. As great as he's been for years, this Harden is a clearly better player. He needs to come through. No way in a competitive critical game should Harden go more than eight minutes of the fourth quarter without taking a shot as he did in game five. For an offensive machine who shoots step back threes by the truckload and can get to the paint for floaters and layups like few others, "making the right plays" does not entail going almost all of crunch time not taking a shot unless being double teamed upon every touch, which was not the case Wednesday.
Chris Paul's decline has been on display in this series. Can he summon up one big performance over the next two games? Sure would help the Rockets' chances. If he cannot and the Rockets get taken out, the three years 124 million left on Paul's contract is going to look flat out depressing.
My guess is the Rockets win game six handily, Warriors' coach Steve Kerr concedes earlier than he ordinarily would and saves what the champs have left for the winner takes all game seven at Oracle Arena Sunday. As for Game Seven, I have no good idea.
In the end you will or you won't, you do or you don't.
Astros are doing just fine
The Astros mash away, as they begin to pull away in the American League West. No division leader in Major League Baseball tops the Astros four-game cushion. They have hit 66 home runs in their first 38 games, a season pace toward a whopping 281. The Astros set the franchise record for homers in the first season of Enron Field in the peak of the steroid era. They hit 249 that year. Last season the Yankees set the MLB record with 267 homers. They did so with only Giancarlo Stanton hitting 30 or more (38). 12 Yankees hit at least 10. As the Astros cross the one quarter mark of the regular season this weekend they have five guys on pace to hit 35+: George Springer, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, and Jose Altuve.
This while Altuve endures the lengthiest slump of his career. Over his last 18 starts Altuve is just 10 for 67, bad for a .149 batting average and a .523 OPS. Reference point: in his 10 seasons with the Astros the offensively anemic Brad Ausmus never finished with an OPS below .593.
Springer last season endured a nightmarish stretch in which he went eight for 87. Bregman began his big league career one for 32. It's no hyperbole saying hitting a baseball is the hardest fundamental skill required in a major sport.
Buzzer Beaters
1. Albert Pujols is pretty much a washed up player. But one of the three greatest first basemen of all-time getting his 2000th RBI Thursday is still quite an achievement. 2. The NHL seventh games this week were beyond fantastic. If the Stanley Cup Final goes seven, pledge to watch! 3. Greatest 1Bs of all-time: Bronze-Pujols Silver-Jimmie Foxx (though Pujols over Foxx is fine) Gold-Lou Gehrig
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As of 9:42 Central Daylight Saving Time Friday night, the Astros (and all other baseball players) are officially the Boys of Summer, officially so far as the season is concerned anyway. When the summer solstice arrived last year the Astros were nine games off the lead in the American League West. So in addressing the rhetorical axiom “what a difference a year makes,” the difference in the Astros’ case is a whopping 14 games as they start the weekend atop their division by five games. At this point in the season last year the Astros’ record in one-run games was a brutal 5-14. In 2025 they are 13-7 in games decided by the narrowest of margins.
That the Astros are just 4-5 in road games against the two worst teams in the American League is no big deal, other than that every game counts in the standings. Still, just as was losing two out of three at the pathetic White Sox earlier this season, it is no doubt disappointing to the Astros to have only gotten a split of their four-game set with the Athletics. The A’s had gone 9-28 in their last 37 games before the Astros arrived in West Sacramento. The former-Oaklanders took the first game and the finale, as the Astros’ offense played bi-polar ball over the four nights. Two stat-padding explosion games that totaled 24 runs and 35 hits were bookended by a puny one-run output Monday and Thursday’s 5-4 10-inning loss. Baseball happens. Nevertheless, as the Astros open their weekend set versus the Angels, they have gone 17-7 over their last 24 games to forge their five-game division lead.
The New York Yankees’ offense has been by a healthy margin the best attack in the American League so far this season. The reigning AL champions snapped a six-game losing streak Thursday. The Yankees mustered a total of six runs over those six losses, including being shutout in three consecutive games. The baseball season is the defining “it’s a marathon not a sprint” sport. With 162 games on the schedule, combined with the fact that the gap in winning percentage between the best teams and the worst teams is smaller than in any other sport, making much about a series, or week or two of games is misguided, apart from all the results mattering.
The future is now
Without context, statistics can tell very misleading stories. Cam Smith is having a fine rookie season and has the looks of a guy who can blossom into a bonafide star and be an Astro mainstay into the 2030s. But it’s silliness that has anyone talking about the big month of June he’s having. Superficially, sure, going into Thursday’s game Smith’s stat line for the month read a .321 batting average and .874 OPS. Alas, that was mostly about Smith’s two monster games in the consecutive routs of the Athletics. Over those two games Cam went seven for nine with two home runs and two doubles. Over the other 14 games he’s played this month Smith is batting .213 with an OPS below .540.
Cam Smith is a long-term contender for best acquisition of Dana Brown’s tenure as General Manager. If his career was a single game Smith is still in the first inning, but if his career was a stock it’s a buy and hold. If the Astros were for some reason forced to part with all but two players in the organization, I think the two they would hold on to are Smith and Hunter Brown. Jeremy Pena would be another strong candidate, but he turns 28 in September and is two seasons from free agency (unless the rules change in the next collective bargaining agreement). Smith is 22 and under Astros’ control for another five seasons, he’s not even presently eligible for salary arbitration until the 2028 season. Brown turns 27 in August and is currently ineligible for free agency until after the 2028 season.
Angels in the outfield
Hunter Brown pitches opposite Yusei Kikuchi Friday night. Kikuchi was Dana Brown’s big in-season move last season, and Kikuchi was excellent with the Astros which set up to get the three-year 63 million dollar deal he landed with the Halos. After a slow start to his season Kikuchi has been outstanding the past month and a half, with a 2.28 earned run average over his last nine starts. Brown’s 1.88 season ERA is second-best in the big leagues among pitchers with the innings pitched to qualify in the category. Only Pirates’ stud Paul Skenes has a better mark, barely so at 1.85.
Kikuchi was a stellar rental who helped the Astros stretch their consecutive postseasons streak to eight. There was an absurd amount of vitriol over what Dana Brown gave up for him. Joey Loperfido is 26 years old and having a middling season at AAA. Will Wagner is 26 years old and back in the minors after batting .186 with the Blue Jays. Jake Bloss is the one guy who maaaaaybe some day the Astros wish they still had. Bloss is out into 2026 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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