Playing the ponies
Sam Houston Race Park selections for Friday, March 1
Mar 1, 2019, 8:01 am
Bigger Picture won the Connally Turf Cup. Coady photography
Here are my selections for Friday. These are not meant to be in exact order, but merely the four horses I think have the best chance to win. For beginners, I suggest exacta boxes with three horses, using two of mine and one of your own. And you can always pick up a copy of Acing Racing 2016 to learn everything you need to know. (These are the picks and format that are available on the free tip sheet at SHRP). Lots of rain in the area so if the races come off the turf, ignore those picks.
FIRST
2-1-6-4
KING CLOUDY was a sharp winner in debut and should fit well here
SECOND
1-4-6-7
IRISH MISSLE might turn the tables in this spot in third off layoff
THIRD
5-1-11-8
SAMICEAN usually fires a good shot and has a strong record here
FOURTH
2-6-5-3
WHENTHEPENNYDROPS
Solid debut and should improve in start No. 2
FIFTH
11-9-1-8
GOOD MONGOLIA has been solid in both turf tries in Chicago
SIXTH
6-1-3-4
KINGSVILLE rolled in last and might have found a spot to repeat
SEVENTH
6-5-3-7
CORLUNA has reeled off a couple good wins and could do it again
EIGHTH
9-2-5-7
ASI FUE was solid in debut and should be in the mix
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The Houston Texans have a big challenge in store as they look to start the season with a win against the Colts this Sunday. When these two teams met in Week 2 last year, the Colts dominated the Texans, despite losing their QB Anthony Richardson to a concussion after the first quarter.
Keeping Richardson contained on Sunday will go a long way in increasing the Texans' chances of coming home with a win. The Texans defense will have their hands full containing the Colts backs and tight ends in the passing game.
Scoring touchdowns with their wide receivers could prove difficult, as the Texans allowed the second-fewest TDs (10) to the receiver position in 2023.
Limiting running back Jonathan Taylor will also be a top priority. While the Texans had an elite defense against the run last season, they struggled with Taylor in Week 18 as he almost rushed for 200 yards.
Houston's D allowed only four carries to running backs in 2023 that went for 20 or more yards. Two of which were to Taylor in the final game of the regular season.
Finally, DeMeco Ryans and company have to find a way to get pressure on the QB. They only had one QB hit and zero sacks on Richardson and Garner Minshew the first time they faced off last year.
On offense, the Texans have two big x-factors to watch for on Sunday. The offensive line that suited up to play the Colts in Week 2 last season is completely different from this year.
The o-line was ravaged with injuries to start the 2023 campaign, so we expect a big jump in productivity in the trenches this year.
Another big addition in 2024 is the presence of running back Joe Mixon. The running game only produced 2 yards per rush in Week 2 against Indy last year, so there's clearly room for improvement.
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