Gambling Guide

Super Bowl 52 prop bet extravaganza

Jerry Bo
Jan 31, 2018, 6:39 am
Tom Brady is your MVP favorite. Photo by Todd Warshaw/Getty Images

With the year coming to a close, the last dance gives us a chance to cut loose some. It empowers us to go outside the box and wager on things you regularly wouldn't be able to touch. With the world watching, family and friends gather around to watch the spectacle that comes with the season finale.

For degenerate gamblers (like myself), it gives us a chance to have action on the unimaginable. While your friends are discussing the halftime show and laughing at the commercials, you're focused on the over or under 12.5 times "Dilly Dilly" is said and trying to count over the shouting and laughing.

Some gamblers like to get their betting started as early as possible, and two bets allow us to do that.

Coin Toss
HEADS-105 TAILS -105
Self-explanatory, a 50/50 bet. The odds are even, and over a large sample size the results have been similar.
Tails 27
Heads 24
Last 4 Super Bowls have been tails.
 

Will the team guess Heads/Tails correctly? YES -105 NO -105
Teams that won the coin toss the last three years lost the game.
In all of the Patriots Super Bowl wins, they lost the coin toss.

National Anthem
Over/Under 120 second OVER-180 UNDER +140

In the last 12 years, the average is 118 seconds for the National Anthem in the Big game. Thats two seconds under this years total; 4 of the last 5 have gone over 2 minutes.

Longest ever: Alicia Keys 156 seconds
Shortest Ever: Billy Joel 90 seconds

Will Pink wear an Eagles hat or shirt? YES +170 NO -250
Pink is an Eagle Superfan! When the Eagles won in the Championship round, she tweeted how excited she was to be able to sing in the game her team was playing in. Value on +170

Will Pink make an error/ omit any part of the National Anthem? YES +300 NO -500

What color will Pink's hair be?
White/Blonde +125
Red/Pink +250
Blue/Purple +500
Green +500
Brown/Purple +700

That’s a lot to keep up with before kickoff, but that when the fun really begins. There are hundreds of in-game team and player props to wager on, but commercial props always seem to draw attention. This year the popularity of the "Dilly Dilly Commercials has grown, and that gives us an opportunity for a wager.

"Dilly Dilly"
Over-Under 12.5 total broadcast YES -115 NO-115
Anheuser Busch has confirmed one: 60-second spot in this years SuperBowl.
In 2015 they had five different :30-second spots, but some were bought in the week of the final game, so there could be value if they purchase more.
In 2016, they only had one spot that was :60 seconds.

About a month ago, Anheuser Busch announced they would release three more of the medieval-themed commercials.
1st- Aired on Christmas 8X "Dilly."
2nd- Aired in the Conference Championship games 8X "Dilly."
3rd-Will air during the Super Bowl

I wanted to dig a little deeper and went back to the Bud-Weis-Er frog's ad in the 1995 Super Bowl. I counted 13 Bud's, is it ironic that this year's total is set to 12.5?

Another Prop bet that gets a lot of action is the color of the Gatorade which the winning team throws on their coach.

Color of the Gatorade on winning coach
Lime/Green/Yellow +225
Orange +250
Red +275
Clear/Water +375
Blue +1000
Purple +1000
No shower Push

Going back to Super Bowl 35, only four teams have had no Gatorade shower at all.
In the Last 10 years:

Orange 4
Clear 2
Purple 1
Yellow 1
Blue 1
None 1

You would be inclined to think maybe the winning team will have their team color of Gatorade poured on the coach, it makes sense. But since Super Bowl 35, it's only happened twice. Once with the Steelers and the other with the Patriots in 2015.

Speaking of the Patriots, since they are favorites and have won multiple times, let's look at what they have done historically in their victories.
Super Bowl
36-none
38-none
39-clear
49-blue
51-none

Is it a preference now for Bill Belichick to not get anything thrown on him post game?

Super Bowl MVP

Tom Brady -110
Nick Foles +325
Rob Gronkowski +900
Dion Lewis +1800
Danny Amendola +1800
Jay Ajayi +1800
Zach Ertz +2000
LeGarrette Blount +3300
Fletcher Cox +3300
James White +4000
Rex Burkhead +6600
Stephen Gostkowski +6600

Quarterbacks have been the MVP 28 total times; 6 of the last 8 have been a QB.
Running Backs 7 times
Wide Reciever 6 times
Never a Tight End
Defensive Player 10 times - Last one was Von Miller at 18-1

Highest Scoring Half  1st HALF +150 2nd HALF -130

Historically, the Patriots have struggled to score in the first quarter. In seven appearances, they have managed to score a total of 0 points in the opening 15 minutes. NONE. Luckily their defense has been able to keep them in games, only allowing a total of 15 points in those seven contest -- 9 of them coming in 2011 vs. the Giants.

This year in the regular season the Patriots scored an average of 6.2 points in the first quarter. In the postseason, they have scored a total of 3 points in their two games.

The individual highest scoring quarter odds typically have the same odds for the 1st and 3rd quarters and the same for the 2nd and 4th quarters. With the slow starts to New England’s previous Super Bowl appearances, there's a great amount of value betting the second half to be the highest scoring of the two.

There are hundreds of props to pick from; these tend to be some of the more popular ones.

The Big game preview and picks coming Friday!!

FYI: Earlier this week, I joined the In the Clutch podcast to talk about the Super Bowl and props bets. Here is a link to the audio.

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on Twiiter

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Houston's losing streak extended to five games

With key Astros missing, Detroit completes the series sweep

An overall bad day for the Astros on Wednesday. Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

On Wednesday afternoon, the Astros received a big blow to their chances in the series finale against Detroit and potentially longer. Five players: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Martin Maldonado, and Robel Garcia would all be moved to the IL due to health and safety protocols, leaving them scrambling to get a whole team together for the game against the Tigers.

The Astros would not be able to overcome both the loss of players and the onslaught of another strong start by Detroit in Wednesday's game which put them too far out front for Houston to come back from to avoid a series sweep.

Final Score: Tigers 6, Astros 4

Astros' Record: 6-6, third in the AL West

Winning Pitcher: Michael Fulmer (1-0)

Losing Pitcher: Lance McCullers Jr. (1-1)

Tigers knock out another starter early

Detroit continued their success of making Houston's starter work hard in early innings, getting after Lance McCullers Jr., and giving him an early exit. After a lengthy fist, they broke through in the second getting two hits, a walk, a hit batter, and an RBI groundout to put up three runs on 34 pitches.

He would have a quicker 1-2-3 third, but after giving up a single, a walk, and hitting another batter to load the bases and reach 87 pitches, he would be removed in favor of Joe Smith. Smith would allow all three of the inherited runners to score, adding those runs to McCullers Jr.'s final line: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 87 P.

Astros try to claw back into it

After Smith would go on to load the bases again in the inning, still with two outs, Houston made another pitching change to bring in Brandon Bielak to get the third out and stop the bleeding at 6-0. The Astros would get on the board in the fifth, getting a runner on base to set up a two-run homer by Jason Castro to cut the lead to 6-2.



Bielak remained in the game to try and eat up as many innings as possible. While he continued to hold the Tigers to their six runs through the six innings, the Astros clawed back into the game. In the bottom of the sixth, Houston put their first two batters on base with a walk and single before an RBI-single by Yuli Gurriel to make it 6-3. They would threaten for more but be held there for the time being.

Astros can't cash in, Tigers complete sweep

Ryne Stanek was Houston's next reliever in the top of the seventh, getting a 1-2-3 frame to keep it a three-run game, as did Brooks Raley in the eighth. In the home part of the inning, the Astros put their first two runners on base on an error and a walk, then loaded them with a one-out single by Carlos Correa. They'd waste their chance to make something happen, though, with an inning-ending double-play.

Ryan Pressly, who had no save opportunities in recent games, entered to get some work in the top of the ninth. He worked around a leadoff double for a scoreless inning, sending the 6-3 game to the bottom of the ninth. The Astros had yet another chance to make something happen, loading the bases with no outs to bring the go-ahead run to the plate. After two outs, Yuli Gurriel would bring one run in with a walk, but that's as close as they'd come, extending their losing streak to five games and getting swept by the Tigers.

Up Next: Houston will get a much-needed day off tomorrow to try and leave this poor homestand behind them. They'll pick things up in Seattle on Friday, with first pitch of the opener of three games at 9:10 PM Central. The expected pitching matchup is Jose Urquidy (0-1, 5.23 ERA) for the Astros and Yusei Kikuchi (0-0, 3.75 ERA) for the Mariners.

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