The Texans were clearing out their locker and discussed the upcoming offseason

Offseason arrives for disappointed Texans

Andre Hal
Zach Tarrant/Houstontexans.com

The Texans discussed plenty of things as they cleared out their lockers and headed into the offseason.

Bill O'Brien not ruling out new play caller

When asked if he thought about changing the play calling duties for the offense the Texans head coach didn't explicitly state change would or wouldn't happen. He did say it would be looked at by the team.

"I think at the end of the year we evaluate everything," he said. "Obviously, we just ended yesterday. But, we'll take a look at everything. We always try to make the best decisions in the best interest of winning. Like I said after the game, I think we have a very good future here. A lot of things to fix, but like I said, we'll take a look at everything."

Plenty of people would tell O'Brien he needs to give up the play calling to someone else. It doesn't seem likely O'Brien, who passed those duties to George Godsey years ago and took them back after his firing, would again give up the headset and the play sheet.

Quarterbacks coach Sean Ryan has gotten looks as an offensive coordinator before so perhaps he would be a in-house option. Anyone outside the organization forces the team to adjust to their philosophy and has to get along with O'Brien and Watson who already seemingly have a strong bond.

Like O'Brien said, it should certainly be evaluated.

Clowney's future is here

Jadeveon Clowney is a free agent but the impending payday isn't on his mind.

"I ain't thinking about that right now," Clowney said. " Just trying to soak in us losing this game right here. That's what I've been thinking about I haven't been thinking about that."

He said he was really upset with the loss to the Colts and it hurt his perception of the season. Clowney mentioned he thought they had four games left coming into the playoffs, meaning playing in the Super Bowl, and could have done something special.

He did discuss his thoughts on next season though.

"I promise to the Texans, and whoever else is watching, I'm going to be a much better and improved player next season."

Clowney said he went to sleep and woke up thinking about how he can be "much better" player and he hasn't even thought about a contract. He said he was worrying about his craft and he's focused on what's ahead.

When he was asked about potentially being franchise tagged by the Texans and his feeling Clowney brushed it off.

"We'll talk about that when it comes," said Clowney. "I'm going to worry about getting better. If I'm here, somewhere else."

He went on to say the business side getting settled would make him very comfortable and help him take care of his family. He then said he wanted to play the rest of his career with the Texans after spending five years with the team.

Romeo's return expected

Bill O'Brien said he expects defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel to return next season. He didn't elaborate, nor did he spend many words confirming the veteran coach's future.

The Texans finished 12th in total defense but 28th in pass defense. Their ability to stop rushing attacks was clear, finishing third in the league. O'Brien wasn't happy with the team's play on third down; they were ranked 20th allowing just over a 40 percent conversion rate. They were 11th in sacks with 43 sacks of opposing quarterbacks.

Crennel did help turn in the team's best takeaway statistic since they led the league in 2014. The Texans had 29 takeaways, up from 16 the year before and good for the fourth best mark in the league.

John Pagano is on the defensive staff as a senior defensive assistant and outside linebackers coach. He previously was the defensive coordinator for the Raiders in 2017 and the Chargers from 2012-2016. If Crennel's return became uncertain there's a chance Pagano could take over for the Texans.

Changes coming at cornerback?

Bill O'Brien made a comment that stood out when he was asked about having a franchise quarterback and not having to look for one anymore.

In listing elements of a successful team O'Brien mentioned "you need corners that can play man" as in man defense. The Texans use a lot of zone with the cornerbacks and the skills of their current defensive backs don't lend itself to playing man coverage.

The Texans have three picks in the first two rounds and will have plenty of money to spend in free agency as well. While people will be focused on the offensive line, the cornerbacks ended up being a weak point on this team as well. Injuries certainly played a part, but even when healthy, they underwhelmed.

Kevin Johnson said he is cleared and ready to get to work as he is under contract for next season. Kareem Jackson is a pending free agent. Aaron Colvin was a big free agent addition this season but injuries derailed him even further after his slow start to the year.

"He's a good guy. He worked hard," O'Brien said. "He was injured in the first Colts game, and I think that was a tough injury. Not to make an excuses for him, but tough one to come back from. It was an ankle injury and it just – I'm not sure that he every fully recovered from it. I don't want to speak for him, but we just felt like at the end of the day, we went with the 46 guys that we felt were the healthiest and the most ready to go."

Loaded with opportunity

The Texans have three picks in the top two rounds and are scheduled to have over $65 million in money so spend on free agency. There is a need for improvement on the offensive line and above we mentioned the cornerbacks as well. For many who want wholesale changes on the offensive line, remember this Bill O'Brien quote when free agency rolls around.

"I don't think you want to build it through free agency," said the head coach. "That's my personal belief. You want to build it through the draft so you can mold the guys. I don't think you want to bring in a bunch of free agents. These are decision that we have to make and these are decisions that we are going to be talking about daily."

O'Brien already has two free agents on his offensive line with guards Zach Fulton and Senio Kelemete. He had a big free agent addition at cornerback fail him. They have plenty of players to decide on with Jadeveon Clowney and Tyrann Mathieu among others being free agents. That being said, they will have some needs they can address with the money in free agency and should use it.

Training camp roads bring them back home

The Texans will return to Houston for training camp after spending the past two camps in West Virginia practicing at The Greenbrier. Bill O'Brien didn't confirm it, saying it would be a discussion with Cal McNair, but that it was "trending that way" when it comes to late July.

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Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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