FRED FAOUR
Texans escape with 20-13 win over the Bills, but are they ruining Deshaun Watson?
Oct 14, 2018, 3:05 pm
Deshaun Watson was on the run all day. Bob Levey/Getty Images
The Texans grinded out an unimpressive 20-13 win over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, evening their record at 3-3 after a dismal 0-3 start.
The defense stifled the Bills, including two late picks to lock down the victory.
Deshaun Watson led a tying 84-yard drive to a field goal in the final two minutes where they were helped immensely by a pass interference call on the Bills in the end zone on a deep pass. The Texans had first and goal, but once again failed to score a touchdown. They settled for a field goal, setting the stage for Jonathan Joseph's pick six to win the game.
After six games, we still don’t know what the Texans are. They have losses to Blaine Gabbert and made a broken down Eli Manning look like a real quarterback. The Colts gifted them an OT win, then the Texans defense woke up and locked down the Cowboys and Bills, but they were still all-out to win both. And the bad news? The Cowboys offense is terrible on the road. The Bills are historically bad, and backup QB Peterman gave the game away with the late pick six. Still, the Texans defense did what it needed to do. They held the Bills to just 12 first downs. The got two sacks and forced four turnovers.
They also got key contributions on special teams, including recovering a fumble and blocking a punt.
They needed every bit of it, because Deshaun Watson and the offense had a rough day. Whether it was lingering effects of his injury or simply bad play, Watson struggled throughout. He was sacked seven times, threw two interceptions, lost a fumble (he was lucky he did not lose more) and could not put together sustained drives. His accuracy was off, and he made a lot of questionable decisions.
And that is why it is impossible to know what these Texans are. If the defense can play this well going forward and Watson can be more positive than negative, a playoff berth might be possible. But we really have not seen that combination all year, with the exception of the Cowboys game, and even then the offense was abysmal in the red zone.
On Sunday, Watson and the offense struggled all over the field, including the red zone. They were just 3 of 13 on third down. They had fewer yards (213 total) than the Bills. And it almost cost them the game.
The bigger concern is the Texans may be in the process of ruining Watson’s career.
The offensive line has been an issue for two years. They were terrible again on Sunday, and you have to wonder what the impact on Watson will be long term. He is already physically beaten up, and it is affecting his game. It also appears to be impacting him mentally as well. His body language is not the same, his confidence appears shot, and he could very well be regressing before our eyes.
His head coach has not helped him. Questionable play calling, putting his QB at risk of bad hits, and making boneheaded decisions that cost the team points.
But Watson is not helping himself, either. He once again threw an interception in the Bills end zone on an absolutely terrible decision. At least a couple of the sacks were on him for holding the ball too long. Those mistakes are going to cost the Texans games.
It almost did on Sunday.
Watson is the presumed future of the franchise. He won’t be if he can’t stay healthy and loses the swagger and confidence and turns the ball over multiple times. That is what we saw for much of Sunday.
If it continues, the Texans present - and future - might not be so bright.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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