Seeing through the illusion

The argument against safety when it comes to baseball netting

The argument against safety when it comes to baseball netting

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Just over a week has gone by since a young fan was taken to the hospital after being struck by a foul ball during the Astros-Cubs game. Since the event the overwhelming response in the media has been a demand to extend netting around stadiums and make games safer. That's why many were surprised this week when Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred came out and made the following statement: "It's very difficult given how far the clubs have gone with the netting to make changes during the year, because they really are structural issues." He went on to say; "But, because safety is so important, I'm sure that conversation will begin and continue into the offseason."

Translation: Not much is going to change.

If you believe structural issues are really the problem, it's time to wake up. Let's see if I can put that Rice MBA to work and dissect the argument against safety.

MLB is a business, and when you run a business it tends to boil down to cash and an equation. Clearly a fan getting hurt is not good for business, but at the moment it's a price that baseball is willing to pay to keep making a profit and prioritize its other issues. If you are having a hard time with this issue try thinking about it like this:

On average there are 30 foul balls hit per game. The average attendance per game around the league last year was over 28 thousand people. Though small, there are a percentage of fans that if asked would say that the chance to catch those foul balls are a key factor in them choosing to show up to the game rather than watch on TV. Additionally there are a small percentage of fans who upgrade their seats because they want to sit closer to the "action". Let's say it's just 25 fans in each category, a very conservative number. With the average ticket cost around $70 and the average seat upgrade around $30 you're looking at revenue of $2,500 a game or over $200,000 for an 81 home game season. What if that number is instead 100 fans per game who prioritize foul balls? Then your profit jumps to over 800K for the season. Now let's ask ourselves, if we interviewed 28,000 people at a baseball game do we think more or less than 100 would say they like the chance to catch foul balls?

Now let's add in sponsorships. If you've been to an Astros game lately you know that Chick-fil-a sponsors the "fan catch of the night". Years ago I heard a rumor that single advertisements placed in the stadium can cost upwards of $50K and that is just for a small sign. I'm not even going to venture a guess into what they charge Chick-fil-a to have their name broadcasted throughout the stadium all year; let's just say it's a lot.

Now let's add in some other factors. The commissioner is already dealing with a year to year decline in game attendance and has decided to prioritize fan interaction. We've seen the youtube clips of kids playing catch with players and even expecting couples throwing gender reveal baseballs for players to hit. The question has to be asked, how much would these types of events be impacted by additional netting?

The point is this stuff adds up. I'm not the commissioner; I am armed only with very conservative estimates and the ability to google things like average number of foul balls hit per game. However, based on what I wrote above you can see how it's hard to make the choice to risk that much revenue.

I already hear you, how cold right? What about the little girl?

In my short lived high school baseball career I have been unfortunate enough to witness a baseball take a bad hop and cause significant damage to a teammate's face. To this day, I see that image played out whenever I hold a baseball. For all those who witnessed this young Astros fan being hit, for the poor father who had to rush his daughter out of the stadium, and for the young girl herself; this event is scarring (beyond a level I know). When you think about it like that the decision about nets should be simple. However that's not the way the commissioner thinks about it. In fact he gets paid not to think about it that way. It's not that the little girl doesn't matter; it's that those calling for safety are not speaking his language. At this time the commissioner's equation from a business standpoint is clear: Put in nets and risk $Millions in revenue and sponsorship opportunities vs don't put in nets and pay a few thousand for a kids hospital visit. Harsh… but true.

Let's stop fooling ourselves that sports are different. The commissioner's decision here is no different than a CEO at a car company deciding if they should issue a recall because a defect might cause an accident. Fans are all just numbers in an equation, and we aren't going see a change until we flip that equation around. We need to see a mob of people asking Chick-fil-a executives why they are comfortable sponsoring foul ball catches if they are so dangerous. We need to see fans stop cheering when a dad in the stands makes a catch with a baby in his arms. We need to stop encouraging fans to chug their beer when the ball lands in the cup. Any of that seem likely?

I wish I could see the real numbers being fed to the commissioner about this issue. Just with these estimations I have to admit I probably would be taking the same steps I was in his position. Then again, I'm about to have my first child and if I take her to a game I can already tell you where we will be sitting; behind netting.

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Takeaways from the Tigers sweep of the Astros

Total butt kicking. The offense was dreadful, scoring just two runs over three games. However, what’s killing the offense the most is the outfield. Outside of when Altuve plays left field, Houston doesn’t have another major league-quality outfielder right now. Jesus Sanchez not only swung at a Charlie Morton curveball that hit him in the knee, he’s also ice-cold, going 0-for-28 at the plate. At least he’s someone you expect to turn things around, but he’s in a huge slump currently. Beyond him, Jacob Melton, Taylor Trammell, and Chas McCormick have all been dragging down the offense. Cam Smith is struggling too, with just one hit in his last seven games.

Is Framber Valdez going to be okay?

Starting pitching was another big issue against the Tigers, and Valdez was a key part of the problem, basically losing the finale in the first inning after allowing six runs. This isn’t an outlier—he’s got a 7+ ERA through four starts in August. Spencer Arrighetti isn’t faring much better, posting a 7+ ERA through three starts. One silver lining with Valdez: the Tigers know him well. They had success against him in the playoffs last season, and it looks like they’re continuing that formula—force him to throw strikes, hit the other way on the sinker, and if the curveball isn’t up, let it go. AJ Hinch knows the deal.

Is the return of Yordan Alvarez enough to boost the offense?

It has to be. The only real way to give this lineup a spark is getting Yordan and Jake Meyers back. Yordan had a successful first rehab outing, collecting a couple of hits, a walk, and even a stolen base. Adding him back to the top of the lineup gives the Astros a formidable top four: Peña, Altuve, Yordan, and Correa. As for Meyers, the outfield has been the biggest drag on the offense. The key is whether he can continue to hit near .300 when he returns from injury. If he does, Altuve and Meyers in the outfield makes a huge difference, and Joe Espada can figure out right field with Sanchez and Smith.

Is the schedule not as soft as anticipated?

We’ve seen some strange results across the league this week, and some of that has to be chalked up to the Dog Days of Summer. Players are tired, and results have been wild. Thankfully, the Mariners are struggling too, giving the Astros some breathing room. Player adjustments after the trade deadline could also be a factor—Sanchez, anyone? Many big free agents have struggled immediately after changing teams, Walker and Juan Soto included.

Can they recover and take advantage of bad teams?

One thing we know about this year’s Astros: they can flip the switch and win multiple series on a moment’s notice. They’re just as capable of sweeping a series as they are of getting swept. Let’s hope that starts with four wins in Baltimore.

There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode on Thursday!

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