Watson has his best play yet and Hopkins might be the best he's ever been

Trades unlikely to help fill Watt-sized void

Texans Deshaun Watson
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

3 headlines, 2 questions, and 1 bet ahead of the trip across the pond to London to play the Jaguars.

Watson wows as usual

We can focus on the game-winning score all we like, but, Watson was very impressive in the second half as whole.

Early on I thought there were some typical elements of sharpness that were lacking and it could be a long day for the Texans if Watson wasn't sharp but he got it going soon after.

He would go on to complete all but four passes in the second half and rush for 34 of his 46 rushing yards after halftime as well. The Texans would score on all three of their second half possessions with one possession taking almost half a quarter controlling the clock.

It feels like each week Watson shows a trick in his bag and overcomes every level of adversity headed his way. He is officially "you're in every game" territory with Watson. Houston has a chance in every game with Watson playing the way he does.

"Slim to none" chance trades are made

Head coach Bill O'Brien didn't seem to think the Texans were going to make any moves. He did use the word "today" on Monday. It is worth noting the trade deadline isn't until Tuesday at 3pm. Maybe I am dicing words but it doesn't seem likely the Texans have the assets, or desire, to make a trade. O'Brien mentioned there needed to be balance in working on this year's team and the future.

The only player that I could see being on the block and maybe getting moved would be Keke Coutee. He was active and healthy but didn't play in Sunday's win over the Raiders. The team does have an injury at wideout with Will Fuller, but Coutee can't play outside anyway. They also promoted Steven Mitchell Jr. from the practice squad last week.

It's unlikely they make a deal, and even if they do, I can't see it being a big one. Their big deals have already been done.

The best ball of his career

Only Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss were faster to the above number. Hopkins did it with quite the quarterback crew. He's caught touchdown passes from the following passers:

Matt Schaub

Case Keenum

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Brian Hoyer

Ryan Mallett

T.J. Yates

Brandon Weeden

Brock Osweiler

Tom Savage

Deshaun Watson

I asked Hopkins if despite the stats, if he is playing the best football of his career.

"Yeah, some would say different," He said. "They might, like, I'm getting old, year seven, and what not. But honestly, I feel like I am. I feel like being on the same page with Deshaun, I feel like we have been clicking."

Hopkins was pleased to be in the same conversation as the above greats and wanted to give credit to his teammates as well.

"I got to thank the quarterbacks that's helped me get 8,000 yards, because I can't throw the ball to myself, even the Brock Osweilers, the Brandon Weedens, I got to thank those guys, honestly. Y'all might laugh, but I can't throw the ball to myself."

Deshaun Watson heaped praise on his teammate as well.

"He's an unselfish person," said Watson. "He's a guy that just wants to win. He don't care what the stat line says, he doesn't care how many touchdowns he has, as long as we get that W on Sundays and we're aiming for what we want to go to, the ultimate goal, that's what it's all about."

How do you fill in for Watt?

O'Brien made it clear you don't just fill in for a hall of fame caliber player like J.J. Watt. And he's right. The Texans will likely have to make use of what they currently have on the roster and potentially a small addition.

It is my assumption Carlos Watkins will "start" in Watt's spot with rookie defensive end Charles Omenihu playing a good portion of the snaps that Watt vacated. Brandon Dunn could also be used to move pieces around along the defensive line situation. D.J. Reader will need to be as good or even better than he currently is for Houston. Angelo Blackson has been a nice player this season.

The linebackers are where things get interesting. Whitney Mercilus is the lone true pass rushing threat on this team. His job just got insanely hard. Jacob Martin will need to continue to show promise. He had the team's lone QB hit yesterday. I don't see any scenario where Barkevious Mingo gets snaps that matter on defense but I could be surprised.

There isn't a free agent option that would make a lot of sense. Maybe someone from another practice squad. I also don't believe a trade would acquire anyone of significance. There aren't many options on the Texans own practice squad. Albert Huggins was signed off the practice squad by Philadelphia last week or he would have had a shot at the spot. Javi Edwards is more of a nose tackle exclusively so it seems unlikely he is the player to get that spot.

What's Watt's future?

This is far less significant than the other injuries he has dealt with in his career. In fact, when it comes to season-ending, it isn't even close compared to the back and the leg break. That being said, four of his last five seasons have been severely affected via injury.

The positive for Watt is he played at an elite level when he played coming back from the injury and again, those were far more serious than what he is dealing with now.

There was conversation in 2017, obviously I'm unaware how real it truly was, that Whitney Mercilus could have come back after his injury and played that season. The season was off the rails by the time he was healthy. So, this is far from a terrible injury for Watt. He shouldn't even miss offseason activities.

His contract becomes interesting though. He has no guaranteed money and two years left on his deal after this season. He carries a cap hit of $15.5 million and $17.5 million those two years. An extension is absolutely in the conversation when you think about what Laremy Tunsil's new deal and Deshaun Watson's new deal may cost the team. Not to mention, Whitney Mercilus is a free agent and DeAndre Hopkins already has his big contract and makes close to $15 million each of the next three years.

It is fun to hope Watt is a member of the Texans for life, and with the team likely staying in the conversation of success with their quarterback, he doesn't seem poised to "ring chase" elsewhere. He will also be just 31 years old and plenty of elite pass rushers have had loads of success in their 30's. All-time greats like Bruce Smith and Reggie White had amazing stats in their 30's and even Terell Suggs and Cameron Wake were recent examples of players who were fantastic in their 30's.

Watt, for the moment, is a far off thought. The 2019 season still has eight games to be played.

I bet the Texans aren't anywhere close to full strength against the Jaguars

It could be another game where backups have to play key roles for the Texans. Lonnie Johnson's concussion seemed bad on the field I would expect he is missing this weekend. Tashaun Gipson didn't get the most positive endorsement of health for this week from Bill O'Brien. Roderick Johnson was banged up which led to the Chris Clark start. Tytus Howard has no shot to play this week. It is imperative Bradley Roby or Johnathan Joseph, or hopefully both, can play against a decent Jaguars team.

The injuries have piled up on the Texans and after London the bye week comes at the perfect time to get players healthy for the final 7 games.

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Houston Astros outfielder finds new home with the Padres

Alex Bregman free agency saga has finally come to an end

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Critical implications, important lessons learned from Astros-Bregman odyssey

Can the Astros overcome the loss of Bregman? Composite Getty Image.

So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.

Reminders...

Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.

It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.

For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.

Who's on third?

Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.

There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.

Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!

New beginnings

Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!

Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!

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