GAMBLING RECAP
Want to bet? Let's play a game of quarterback guess who
Jan 24, 2018, 8:02 am
Case Keenum's season ended in Philadelphia. Twincities.com
Imagine this; You walk into a sportsbook before the games last Sunday and are presented a prop sheet. The objective is to match the quarterback with his performance in the Championship round.
26-of-38 for 290 yards / two touchdowns
23-of-36 for 293 yards / one touchdown
26-of-33 for 352 yards / three touchdowns
28-of-48 for 271 yards / one touchdown/ two interceptions / one fumble
Case Keenum
Tom Brady
Blake Bortles
Nick Foles
Although some would think they can figure this out pretty easily pregame,the inscrutability of Sunday's results made this impracticable to solve.
Who am I?
Behind door #1
In College, I attended Michigan State for a year and was redshirted when I transferred, forcing me to sit out the 2008 season. For my new alma mater, I would go on to throw for over 10,000 yards and 66 touchdowns in three years. I was the 88th overall pick selected in the fourth round in my draft. I would tell you who drafted me, but I've been on a total of three teams since entering the league. On Nov. 3, 2013, I punished the Raiders for seven passing touchdowns, something only seven other quarterbacks have been able to do. I guess you can say I'm pretty special, that same year I made the Pro Bowl and was named the Pro Bowl Offensive MVP (thanks for the GMC Truck). Not to brag, but this isn't my first rendezvous in the postseason where I've thrown five times more touchdowns than interceptions, and I hold a 116.4 passer rating. Sunday, my final stat line was 26-of-33 for 352 yards and three touchdowns. Guess Who?
Behind door #2
I redshirted as a true freshman in 2010, but I would only need three years to tally 56 touchdowns. In 2013, I led my team to a BCS bowl, Tostitos to be exact. In my final game, I was named the Offensive MVP and helped my team win its first major bowl in school history. Although this was my first postseason, I've done fairly well throwing three times more touchdowns than interceptions. Also, I’m a pretty decent runner. This postseason I had 121 yards on 17 carries (7.1). Sunday my final stat line read 23-of-36 for 293 yards and one touchdown. Guess who?
Behind door #3
Im also a journeyman, and I've led the huddle on four different NFL teams. In college, I was a monster. I’m the NCAA's all-time leader in total passing yards, touchdowns, and completions. I was the conference MVP in 2009 and 2011. It would have been three consecutive years but I tore my knee in the third game of the year vs. UCLA. Luckily, I was granted my 6th year of eligibility, and I led my team to a 12-0 season. That year I spanked Penn State in the TicketCity Bowl. My final numbers were 532 yards and three touchdowns passes. In my pro career, it has been a struggle. Starting with my rookie year where I spent all of 2012 on the practice squad. The following year I got my first start in week seven after an injury to the starting quarterback. No big deal but I did go 15 of 25 passes for 271 yards and a touchdown, along with a 110.6 passer rating, the highest by a quarterback on my team that season. Overall, I've thrown for 8,771 yards in 5 years while tossing 46 touchdowns and 27 interceptions. Sunday my final stat line was 28-of-48 for 271 yards with a touchdown, two interceptions, and one fumble. Guess Who?
Behind door #4
I've always loved football, at the age of 4, I attended a game in CandleStick Park in which Dwight Clark had "The Catch." In college, I was the backup my first two years to some guy named Brian Griese. I guess he was pretty good; he led our team to an undefeated season and a national title before I took over. In two years I threw for over 4500 yards while holding a 30-17 touchdown to interception ratio. I was the 199th overall pick, and I would only have to wait until my second season to get my first start. One year, in our teams season opener, I managed to tear my ACL and MCL causing me to miss the entire season. The following year I came out with a vengeance, in the first game I pulled off a miraculous comeback while throwing for 378 yards and two touchdowns. That year I would also set the record with most touchdown passes in a single quarter (5). This postseason I had a 5-0 touchdown to interception ratio. Sunday my final stat line was 26-of-38 for 290 yards and two touchdowns. Guess who?
The Championship round left us with a few surprising box scores. But only two teams could advance. Congratulations to the Patriots and the Eagles.
Play action or Pass went 1-7. Bringing our yearly record to 58-53-3.
For Sportsbooks, it was one of the biggest weekends ever. In the first game, many sharp bettors were on Jacksonville, but the Public was huge on Patriots-7.5 and Jaguars money line +300. This was great for the guys taking the bets, and they were able to cash off both crowds.
In the late game, Joe Public was still suffering from the Minneapolis Miracle. People really wanted to see a team host a Super Bowl but that illusion will have to wait. The Vikings booked 64% of the bets leading into kickoff and again the books feasted.
Sunday was one of the best day for books in years. The only game the books lost was on the Las Vegas Golden Knights route of the Hurricanes.
With the Superbowl on the horizon, we will be getting more into the game the following week. Prop bet extravaganza coming soon......
1)Foles
2)Bortles
3)Keenum
4)Brady
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoknowz on twitter
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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