What did week 10 in the NFL tell us about the Texans?

Week 10 results that mean something to the Texans

Deshaun Watson
Deshaun Watson led the Texans in rushing. Steven Ryan/Getty Images

3 Headlines, 2 Questions, and 1 Bet after the Texans bye week. What week 10 results told us about the Texans

Lamar Jackson another clear hurdle in AFC

Lamar Jackson was perfect on Sunday. Yes, it was against the Bengals, but perfection should never be denied.

The ultimate hurdle in the AFC was Tom Brady. You almost always have to go through New England if you want to play in the Super Bowl. This year began with the added challenge of the MVP Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs.

Well, sub Mahomes out for Lamar Jackson and those nasty Ravens. The Texans will likely need to go through Baltimore or New England for their chance at a AFC Championship game.

The timing of course is fun with the Ravens hosting the Texans this weekend. It is one of the best showdowns left on the NFL schedule as Deshaun Watson clashes with another MVP candidate, and likely leader for the award.

Is the NFL sure they can't put this on Sunday night football?

Tennessee isn't going away

The Titans surprised the NFL, and Patrick Mahomes, pulling off one of the many upsets on Sunday.

They have a weapon that few in the NFL possess in Derrick Henry who was a monster in the second half of the season last year. There is little reason to think he won't be a force down the stretch for the Titans again.

Ryan Tannehill has breathed life into a Titans team that looked to be headed nowhere earlier in the year. The Titans have four AFC South games left, including both of their games with the Texans. They aren't going to lose all of those and they're a threat to win them all too.

Their offensive line is shaky as it has been in a long time. Their defense is banged up but their bye week hits this week so they should get a little healthier. They have enough to annoy any good team, and as evidenced on Sunday, beat them. Tennessee might not make the playoffs, but they can keep someone else from making the playoffs.

Colts sunk with Hoyer as quarterback

This isn't Hoyer's fault. Not by a long shot. The Colts are just very limited with him and any mistakes get magnified. The Dolphins are playing their asses off but they don't have the talent that should hold offenses to 12 points.

They also have a flawed kicking game right now. Their defense is solid, very solid in fact, but if they can't put up points they will be in trouble.

Jacoby Brissett coming back is a must for them to stay in the hunt in the AFC. If he gets banged up at all, or isn't 100 percent, the Colts are not a danger to make the playoffs.

Do you think the Rams regret paying Jared Goff?

Jared Goff has the worst contract in the NFL. I am sure of it. The Rams rushed to pay a guy Sean McVay propped up after they rushed to pay their running back. The only guy they've paid on schedule and had it make sense was Aaron Donald and they played hard ball with him.

Goff has regressed and so has the whole Rams offense. They scored zero offensive points coming out of a bye. I get the Steelers have had some success on defense but that's a joke for what should be a top offense. Goff is a huge problem right now and so is Gurley. They might be saving Gurley for later in the year but those games might be meaningless.

Goff had shown very little that was extremely unique. Sure, he made some big throws and had a lot of success but there were a lot of plays most quarterbacks can make. If you are going to make a player the highest paid in the league at his position, make sure he does something other players can't do.

That's where Deshaun Watson comes in. He is special, regularly makes plays only he can make, or maybe one or other guy. Watson will likely head to the table this offseason to talk about beating Goff's deal. He will be worth it, or close to it, unlike Goff.

Do you think the Texans regret not paying Jadeveon Clowney?

I believe the answer is no.

Do they perhaps regret not paying him for one year and getting one last season out of him?

Sure. Easy to say now. He was a monster on Monday against the 49ers. The entire league was watching, including Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins who tweeted about the performance. It was a typical dominant Clowney performance. And, the first of the season from Clowney. He has been pedestrian for the Seahawks at times. Sure, stretches of impressive play appeared. Clowney's best games before tonight were against the Bengals, Cardinals, and Falcons.

Plenty of shots were taken at the Texans for dumping Clowney for a third round pick. He certainly seemed to have a bit more value than just a third round pick. Obviously if Clowney had been on board with the Miami idea the Dolphins wouldn't have ended up with so many draft picks.

2019 should have been the last season for Clowney in a Texans uniform. The defense could have used him, especially with the Watt injury. He could have built his value more in Houston than in Seattle.

Don't forget, the Texans did Clowney a favor. In his own words, Clowney said he was planning to report until the Texans told him he was going to be traded. Houston could have not said anything to Clowney, let him report, and then traded him wherever they wanted. Regardless of Clowney's wishes.

I bet the Bills have a collapse in them

The Bills have six wins already. They still have contests with the Broncos, Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers, and Patriots. All these games are very possible losses for Buffalo. Not to mention, the Dolphins are no slouches right now and the Jets at the end of the year could be rolling.

If Buffalo falls apart, it won't shock me. If they hang tough and annoy more than a few teams, it won't surprise me either. The Bills making the playoffs would make them ripe for the picking for whatever team ends up hosting them.

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Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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