THE WEEK IN GAMBLING

Week 13 review: Hey, Mr. Wilson!

Week 13 review: Hey, Mr. Wilson!
Russell Wilson is a monster. Getty Images

He was 20-of-31 for 227 yards and three touchdowns and that is what the box score will read, but the story was the manner in which Russell Wilson manipulated his mightiest qualities.

According to Pro Football Focus, Russell Wilson was under pressure on 16 of his 36 dropbacks.  Although it has improved at times, the offensive line has had issues protecting the slippery play caller. Using football outsiders offense efficiency ratings, Seattle ranks top 10 in weighted DVOA, and much has to do with the ability of Wilson to improvise and create outside of the pocket.

Let's take a look at Seattle's offensive line.

The Seahawks rank 30th in Adjusted line yards (3.43), only leading Miami and Detriot. The Seahawks have received nothing from the running back position where they average a wretched 3.25 yards per carry, well below the league average of 4.03.

The stat that has to stick out is that Wilson is second in the league in rush yards at his position. Wilson averages 6.1 yards per carry on 71 attempts only trailing Cam Newton. Even more fascinating, is his success on first downs. Of his 432 total yards on the ground, 189 have come on first down, while accumulating  22 first downs. In the fantasy world, he leads all Quarterbacks (ESPN Standard) in scoring with 279.4  total points, well ahead of second place Carson Wentz (254.5). Wilson is accounting for over 80% of his team's offense and has been involved in all but 1 of his teams 30 offensive touchdowns this year. The next four weeks will represent what this team will be as they have a tough stretch playing at Jacksonville, vs. LA Rams, at Dallas Cowboys, and the finale at home vs. the Arizona Cardinals.

From the Cashiers Window:

Patriots 87%

Rams 86%

Chargers 85%

Raiders 83%

Packers 82%

3-2 ATS

Although they went 10-6 straight up, favorites came back down to earth and went 7-9 ATS in Week 13. 96-84-8 ATS is where the number sits for 2017. Week 13 was a week for underdogs winning outright; we saw six teams stand up to the task.

Jets +4, ML +170

Seahawks +6, ML +190

Vikings +3, ML +125

49ers +2.5, ML +120

Cowboys+1 ML +110

Dolphins+1 ML +110

The Largest Favorite to cover was the Jaguars, as they beat up on division rival Indianapolis, coasting to a 30-10 victory easily covering the -10 point spread.

Play action or Pass went 8-2 in Week 13. We are 30-23-4 ATS in 2017.

Saints-4   WIN

Seahawks+6 WIN

Panthers/Saints over 48 WIN

Falcons-3 LOSS

Packers PK WIN

Browns/Chargers over 43 LOSS

Teasers

7 Point

Chargers-7/Patriots-2 WIN

Chargers-7/Oakland-1.5 WIN

10 point

Chargers-4/Saints over38/Seattle+16 WIN

Chargers-4/Jaguars PK/Patriots+1 WIN

Super Bowl Odds

New England Patriots    +250

Pittsburgh Steelers    +550

Philadelphia Eagles    +600

Minnesota Vikings    +800

New Orleans Saints    +900

Los Angeles Rams    +1200

Atlanta Falcons    +2500

Carolina Panthers    +2500

Seattle Seahawks    +2500

Los Angeles Chargers    +2500

ESPN Power rankings

1: Patriots

2: Eagles

3: Vikings

4: Rams

5: Steelers

6: Seahawks

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.














 

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

ESPN Houston 97.5 FM
Have the Astros turned a corner? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.

Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.

While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.

Caratini comes through!

So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.

Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.

Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.

Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.

Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…

Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome