EXPECT TEXANS-CHIEFS TO BE A FANTASY EXPLOSION

Week 6 fantasy football rankings

Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

These are my very early ranks and I will update them later in the week. Make sure you check the injury report on Sunday for players that have missed practice. Keep in mind, these are PPR rankings, and don't forget to set your lineup for Thursday Night Football.

If you have any questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter. Be sure to check out my show MoneyLine with Jerry Bo on ESPN 97.5FM. We're on every Sunday morning from 10-noon, and we'll talk a lot of fantasy football and NFL gambling getting you ready for kickoff every Sunday.

@JoshJordan975

@Moneyline975

@JerryBoKnowz

QB

Patriots/Facebook

1 Patrick Mahomes
2 Deshaun Watson
3 Russell Wilson
4 Lamar Jackson
5 Matt Ryan
6 Tom Brady
7 Kyler Murray
8 Dak Prescott
9 Aaron Rodgers
10 Jameis Winston
11 Carson Wentz
12 Gardner Minshew
13 Jared Goff
14 Philip Rivers
15 Kirk Cousins
16 Kyle Allen
17 Jimmy Garoppolo
18 Matthew Stafford
19 Sam Darnold
20 Baker Mayfield

RB

Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

1 Christian McCaffrey
2 Alvin Kamara
3 Ezekiel Elliott
4 Dalvin Cook
5 Mark Ingram
6 Aaron Jones
7 Le'Veon Bell
8 Chris Carson
9 David Johnson
10 Leonard Fournette
11 Austin Ekeler
12 Nick Chubb
13 Derrick Henry
14 Kerryon Johnson
15 James Conner
16 Phillip Lindsay
17 Sony Michel
18 Melvin Gordon
19 James White
20 Joe Mixon
21 Devonta Freeman
22 Damien Williams
23 Malcolm Brown

24 Chris Thompson

25 Tevin Coleman

26 Adrian Peterson

27 Matt Breida
28 Carlos Hyde
29 Kenyan Drake
30 LeSean McCoy
31 Jordan Howard
32 Ronald Jones
33 Royce Freeman
34 Jonathan Hilliman
35 Miles Sanders
36 Duke Johnson

WR

Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

1 Julio Jones
2 Chris Godwin
3 Cooper Kupp
4 DeAndre Hopkins
5 Amari Cooper
6 Michael Thomas
7 Keenan Allen
8 Adam Thielen
9 Tyler Lockett
10 Julian Edelman

*Tyreek Hill Looks like he will play, He's a top 10 play
11 Larry Fitzgerald
12 Odell Beckham
13 Tyler Boyd
14 Josh Gordon
15 Mike Evans
16 Kenny Galladay
17 D.J. Chark
18 Will Fuller
19 D.J. Moore
20 Emmanuel Sanders
21 JuJu Smith-Schuster
22 Michael Gallup
23 Calvin Ridley
24 Courtland Sutton
25 Marquise Brown
26 Terry McLaurin
27 Stefon Diggs
28 Jarvis Landry
29 Alshon Jeffery
30 Curtis Samuel
31 Marvin Jones
32 Dede Westbrook
33 Marquez Valdes-Scantling
34 Mike Williams
35 Mecole Hardman
36 Mohamed Sanu
37 Demarcus Robinson
38 Auden Tate
39 Robbie Anderson
40 Geronimo Allison

TE

Photo via:Chiefs/Facebook

1 Travis Kelce
2 George Kittle
3 Austin Hooper
4 Zach Ertz
5 Will Dissly
6 Greg Olsen
7 Mark Andrews
8 Jimmy Graham
9 Gerald Everett
10 Delanie Walker
11 Jason Witten
12 Jared Cook
13 Noah Fant
14 Vance McDonald
15 O.J. Howard

Defense

1 Patriots
2 Chargers
3 Cowboys
4 Ravens
5 Vikings
6 Titans
7 Seahawks
8 Packers
9 Panthers
10 Broncos
11 Steelers
12 Redskins
13 Jaguars
14 49ers
15 Eagles

Kicker

1 Justin Tucker
2 Greg Zuerlein
3 Will Lutz
4 Harrison Butker
5 Robbie Gould
6 Ka'imi Fairbairn
7 Mason Crosby
8 Joey Slye
9 Zane Gonzalez
10 Brett Maher
11 Matt Bryant
12 Jake Elliott
13 Mike Nugent
14 Matt Prater
15 Jason Myers

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

Here's what the data tells us about Bregman. Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

Alex Bregman had a rough season in 2020 by his standards. He slashed .242/.350/.451 in 42 regular season games. His regular season included a trip to the 10-day IL for a hamstring strain he suffered in mid-August. His surface-level struggles continued in the postseason, where he slashed .220/.316/.300 in 13 games. However, that postseason sample size does include a tough luck game against the Tampa Bay Rays where he went 0-for-5 with five hard hit balls.

All-in-all, 2020 felt like a lost season for Bregman. He never really got going. He got off to a slow start, but he's always been a slow starter. Once he started to pick it up, he strained his hamstring, and he played poorly after returning from the hamstring strain. Then, he started to turn his batted ball quality around in the playoffs, but he hit into a lot of tough luck outs.

Hard Hit % - 33.6%

Barrel % - 3.9%

K% - 14.4%

BB% - 13.3%

Chase % - 18.1%

Bregman comes from the Michael Brantley school of hitters. He has elite plate discipline and elite bat-to-ball skills. This makes Bregman a fairly consistent hitter. That may sound odd considering his 2020 "struggles" but even an extended period of poor performance for him resulted in a .801 OPS and a 122 wRC+. If his valleys are still 22% better than the league average hitter, then that's a pretty reliable producer.

There aren't any alarming trends in Bregman's statistics. Yes, his K% was slightly up, his BB% is slightly down, but it isn't a massive difference in either category. His Chase % was up, but again, 18.1% is elite discipline. The biggest drop was in his Hard Hit%, where he fell from 38% to 33.6%. Even so, his average exit velocity only dropped .4 MPH, so there's not really a catastrophic trend here.

His .254 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) was low, but he's never put up really high BABIP numbers. In fact, his BABIP has gotten worse every year of his career, from .317 to .311 to .289 to .281 to .254. While his BABIP will likely spike back up next year, it isn't enough to be the difference between the 2019 and 2020 versions of himself. His xBA and xSLG weren't out of whack either. His .256 xBA isn't much better than his .240 AVG, and his .400 xSLG is actually worse than his .451 SLG.

Bregman is as forthcoming with his hitting mechanics, approach, and mental cues as any big leaguer out there. Here is what he had to say about his swing this year. This was a Zoom press conference with the media following the Astros game on September 25th against the Rangers.

Bregman says he wants to hit balls in the air to the pull side and on a line to the opposite field, but in reality, he was hitting flares to the opposite field and hitting them on the ground to the pull side.

The data mostly backs up that claim. In 2019, on balls hit to the pull side, Bregman had an average exit velocity of 90.7 MPH at an average launch angle of 16°, a 40% Hard Hit %, and a 16% HR%. Since Bregman has elite bat-to-ball skills, most of those metrics didn't change. In 2020, his average exit velocity was 90.6, essentially the same as 2019. His Hard Hit % was 42%, a touch better than in 2019. However, his average launch angle dipped from 16° to 11°, which contributed to his HR% dropping all the way to 9%. Bregman hit 47% of his pull side swings on the ground. In 2019, that number was 40%. He absolutely had less production to the pull side in 2020.

The data gets a little hazier going the opposite way when comparing 2019 to 2020, as Bregman actually performed slightly better to the opposite field in 2020 than 2019, but he also only had 20 batted balls to the opposite field all season. Considering the small sample size, it isn't worth diving too deep into the data.

He's right that most of the balls he hit that way were flares. He had an average exit velocity of 83.4 MPH with an average launch angle of 32°, but that's about the same as what he did in 2019. A lot of the statistical drop off comes from balls that were backspun rockets to the pull side in 2019 becoming top spinners or roll overs in 2020.

Bregman also performed horribly against breaking balls in 2020. He batted .150 with a .250 SLG against them in 2020. He had an 84 MPH Average Exit Velocity against them and whiffed 26.5% of the time against them.

It was a far cry from 2019, when he hit .265 with a .588 SLG, 87 MPH average exit velo, and whiffed 18% of the time.

Those numbers lend credence to his statement on his mechanics. It's tough for a hitter to have adjustability against breaking balls if he's blowing out his front side and pulling off of the baseball.

Bregman will spend the offseason working on these mechanical fixes and getting back to the hitter he used to be. If he's consistently hitting the ball in the air to the pull side next year, and he's performing better against breaking balls, then he should be right back in the mix for AL MVP.

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome