Weekend bookie busters: Some spot plays on NBA, NCAA and UFC
Here are a few spots, you can find value on this weekend:
Friday 3/2/2018 6:35 pm
Warriors at Hawks
Warriors -13 Over/Under 227
Golden State travels to Atlanta in hopes of sweeping their three-game road trip. The Warriors continue to dominate their opponents; the only problem so has their arch-rival Houston Rockets. Houston is on a 13-game win streak and keeping pace with them makes this road trip very business like. Out of the 11 games Atlanta has played this month, they have allowed teams to score 115+ points five times. This can be credited to their newfound fast play which they ran at the sixth fastest pace in February. The Hawks offensive efficiency ranked 26th during the time frame slightly worse than their season average. The Warriors have the top-rated offense and in the last month have averaged 117 points per game. Atlanta playing fast will play into the Warriors strengths allowing them to get out in the open court. Another stat we have to look at is the Turnover percentage of these teams, where they both ranked in the bottom five in the month of February. With the pace being fast and these teams playing somewhat careless as of late, look for a high scoring affair. After this game, Golden State will have three days off before hosting Brooklyn; expect them to go all out while putting a stamp on the road trip.
Warriors Team Total over 120
Friday 3/2/2018 11:00 am
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
Michigan State -9.5 Over/Under 132
In a Big 10 Friday afternoon matchup, defense will be manifested by both schools. Just days ago, these teams squared off in a low scoring affair. Michigan State was able to survive after having 13 turnovers and only shooting 43% from the field. The Spartans carry the nations seventh ranked defense, and they are aggressive. Michigan State leans on its defense and ability to excel in slow tempo to grind out wins. Tom Izzo's group is ranked 218th in tempo per 40 minutes. A slow, methodical attack, attached to the 11th overall offensive efficiency makes the Spartans a favorite to win the Big 10 tournament and perhaps make noise in the big dance. Thier opponent Wisconsin plays a similar style of ball, and they know this game will be a physical, hard-fought contest. Working to the Badgers advantage is the fact they have been battle tested the entire year having played the 20th overall toughest strength of schedule. Like their foes Michigan State, the pace the Badgers play at is among the lowest in the nation at 63.2, ranking them 347th in the nation. By the way these two teams have been playing all year, and the ability of Wisconsin to match up with some of the tougher teams they've faced, I see this game going under the total of 132.
Cris Cyborg vs. Yana Kunitskaya
Cris Cyborg -1600 Over/Under 1.5
We know what Cyborg brings to the table, the question is more of what her opponent can do to stop her. Holly Holm is a southpaw, and that stopped Cyborg from establishing her jab, something she thrived on in her previous fight vs. Tonya Evinger. Head movement will be vital and Im not sure how much of a beating Kunitskaya will be able to withstand. Yana is more of a counter striker and not a fighter who pushes forward. Cyborg has been patient her last couple of fights and that has resulted in her previous two matches going over and past the 2nd round. The opponents she faced were extremely tough and took a drubbing in those fights vs. the Brazilian. Im not sure Kunitskaya has the same toughness; look for Cyborg to end the fight early. I'll be on the square side for the Main Event of UFC 222.
Under 1.5 rounds.
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter