This play changed a lot for bettors. SBNation.com
The Minneapolis Miracle was one of most indecipherable plays in the history of the sport that left fans of both teams in disbelief. A moment NFL enthusiasts dream of and reenact as kids while playing backyard football. It's what fantasies are made of, but what exactly did it mean to the gambling world?
The opening line for this game launched at Vikings -3.5. Promptly, it was bet by sharps and moved to the 5 point range within days. The line sat still for most of the week, but it's reported that at least six of the big Casinos in Las Vegas convened at 5.5. With the game ending with over 60% of the money on New Orleans, bettors finally received some redemption after being beaten up all weekend. Not only in the divisional round, but the books have been cashing this entire postseason, where teams favored are now 1-7 ATS, with four dogs pulling outright victories. This is precisely what the books need, as the outright winners also bust teasers and money line parlays, a strategy many gamblers use to better their chances of winning by crossing key numbers. This has been a complete reverse of last year's playoffs, where through two weeks, favorites were 9-2 ATS and had bettors cleaning house.
After the wondrous touchdown, not only did it break the hearts of the under bettors, if you got the late 47.5-48, but it also put both sides in play pending the extra point. With nothing to gain by kicking the extra point, the Vikings kneeled, and the Minnesota faithful erupted. An eruption was also heard in Vegas sportsbooks, where many fans seemed to have caught amnesia and started questioning the rules and what Minnesota chose to do. We have seen this exact situation a few times this year, most recently in the Eagles vs. Raiders game, where the Eagles ran back a fumble after a series of Raider laterals to win the game 19-10. They also chose to kneel the ball with nothing at stake, a situation that left bettors on both sides in the same predicament as this week. That line opened at 7.5 and was pounded to the -9.5 10 range. The lesson to be learned here is getting early numbers and shopping around for the best lines can sometimes be the deciding factor between winning and losing.
True Lines
So what's the benefit of betting a spread early in the week when it's released? When the line first opens it's considered a "true line." True, because either betting side hasn't touched it, therefore it hasn't been swayed either direction because of action. Keep in mind that the objective of the Sportsbook is to set a number they think will generate action from both sides. If they are getting hit substantially more on either team, they adjust the number to generate traffic for the opponent. Getting your bet in on key numbers is pivotal in being a winning bettor. Back in October on the Pregame line, Fred Faour and RJ Bell spoke about getting early numbers and betting the best lines, two factors that can give you a substantial edge. Give it a listen; it will assist you along your way.
Week 10 this season, I suggested the unthinkable, make a future bet on the Jaguars at 40-1 odds to win the Superbowl. Here we lie going into Championship Weekend, and Jacksonville can be had at 9-1. Does it seem absurd now? With the odds swinging drastically in your favor, options open up for massive hedging opportunities if the Jaguars can pull off an upset.
So why the Jaguars? A trend that stuck out to me and I stressed in my week 10 article was; Every year since 2000, a team in the top three in net yards per play has made the Super Bowl. At the time the Falcons, Jaguars, and Vikings were the candidates. Is it a coincidence that two of these teams are still alive?
Play action or Pass went 6-3-1 in the divisional round, boosting our yearly record to 57-46-3 (55.3%)
Eagles +3 WIN
Patriots -13 WIN
Patriots 1st half -7 WIN
Patriots Team total over 30.5 WIN
Steelers -7 (-115) LOSS
Saints+5 (-110) PUSH
Teasers 6 point
Patriots-7.5/Steelers-1 LOSS
Steelers-1/Saints+11 LOSS
Teasers 10 point
Patriots-3.5/ Eagles+13/ saints+15 (X2) WIN (2X)
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryboKnowz on twitter.
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Nick Chubb didn’t expect to be a Houston Texan. At least, not until he got the call on a quiet Saturday at home and was on a flight the next day. It happened fast — too fast, even, for the four-time Pro Bowler to fully process what it all meant. But now that he’s here, it’s clear this wasn’t a random landing spot. This was a calculated leap, one Chubb had been quietly considering from afar.
The reasons he chose Houston speak volumes not only about where Chubb is in his own career, but where the Texans are as a franchise.
For one, Chubb saw what the rest of the league saw the last two seasons: a young team turning the corner. He admired the Texans from a distance — the culture shift under head coach DeMeco Ryans, the explosive rise of C.J. Stroud, and the physical tone set by players like Joe Mixon. That identity clicked with Chubb. He’d been a fan of Ryans for years, and once he got in the building, everything aligned.
“I came here and saw a bunch of guys who like to work and not talk,” Chubb said. “And I realized I'm a perfect fit.”
As for his health, Chubb isn’t running from the injuries that cost him parts of the past two seasons, he’s owning them. But now, he says, they’re behind him. After a full offseason of training the way he always has — hitting his speed and strength benchmarks — Chubb says he’s feeling the best he has in years. He’s quick to remind people that bouncing back from major injuries, especially the one he suffered in 2023, is rarely a one-year journey. It takes time. He’s given it time.
Then there’s his fit with Mixon. The two aren’t just stylistic complements, they go way back. Same recruiting class, same reputation for running hard, same respect for each other’s games. Chubb remembers dreading matchups against the Bengals in Cleveland, worrying Mixon would take over the game. Now, he sees the opportunity in pairing up. “It’ll be us kinda doing that back-to-back against other defenses,” he said.
He’s also well aware of what C.J. Stroud brings to the table. Chubb watched Stroud nearly dismantle Georgia in the College Football Playoff. Then he saw it again, up close, when Stroud lit up the Browns in the postseason. “He torched us again,” Chubb said. Now, he gets to run alongside him, not against him.
Stroud made a point to welcome Chubb, exchanging numbers and offering support. It may seem like a small thing, but it’s the kind of leadership that helped sell Chubb on the Texans as more than just a good football fit — it’s a good locker room fit, too.
It appears the decision to come to Houston wasn’t part of some master plan. But in retrospect, it makes perfect sense. Chubb is a player with a no-nonsense work ethic, recovering from adversity, looking to write the next chapter of a career that’s far from over. And the Texans? They’re a team on the rise, built around guys who want to do the same.
You can watch the full interview in the video below.
And for those wondering how Joe Mixon feels about Nick Chubb, check out this video from last season. Let's just say he's a fan.
I’ve seen some speculation indicating that Joe Mixon may not be happy the Texans signed Nick Chubb. If that is what you believe, watch this clip from an interview with @greenlight pod last year & get back to me. pic.twitter.com/3vaip85esj
— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter) June 11, 2025
*ChatGPT assisted.
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