
This play changed a lot for bettors. SBNation.com
The Minneapolis Miracle was one of most indecipherable plays in the history of the sport that left fans of both teams in disbelief. A moment NFL enthusiasts dream of and reenact as kids while playing backyard football. It's what fantasies are made of, but what exactly did it mean to the gambling world?
The opening line for this game launched at Vikings -3.5. Promptly, it was bet by sharps and moved to the 5 point range within days. The line sat still for most of the week, but it's reported that at least six of the big Casinos in Las Vegas convened at 5.5. With the game ending with over 60% of the money on New Orleans, bettors finally received some redemption after being beaten up all weekend. Not only in the divisional round, but the books have been cashing this entire postseason, where teams favored are now 1-7 ATS, with four dogs pulling outright victories. This is precisely what the books need, as the outright winners also bust teasers and money line parlays, a strategy many gamblers use to better their chances of winning by crossing key numbers. This has been a complete reverse of last year's playoffs, where through two weeks, favorites were 9-2 ATS and had bettors cleaning house.
After the wondrous touchdown, not only did it break the hearts of the under bettors, if you got the late 47.5-48, but it also put both sides in play pending the extra point. With nothing to gain by kicking the extra point, the Vikings kneeled, and the Minnesota faithful erupted. An eruption was also heard in Vegas sportsbooks, where many fans seemed to have caught amnesia and started questioning the rules and what Minnesota chose to do. We have seen this exact situation a few times this year, most recently in the Eagles vs. Raiders game, where the Eagles ran back a fumble after a series of Raider laterals to win the game 19-10. They also chose to kneel the ball with nothing at stake, a situation that left bettors on both sides in the same predicament as this week. That line opened at 7.5 and was pounded to the -9.5 10 range. The lesson to be learned here is getting early numbers and shopping around for the best lines can sometimes be the deciding factor between winning and losing.
True Lines
So what's the benefit of betting a spread early in the week when it's released? When the line first opens it's considered a "true line." True, because either betting side hasn't touched it, therefore it hasn't been swayed either direction because of action. Keep in mind that the objective of the Sportsbook is to set a number they think will generate action from both sides. If they are getting hit substantially more on either team, they adjust the number to generate traffic for the opponent. Getting your bet in on key numbers is pivotal in being a winning bettor. Back in October on the Pregame line, Fred Faour and RJ Bell spoke about getting early numbers and betting the best lines, two factors that can give you a substantial edge. Give it a listen; it will assist you along your way.
Week 10 this season, I suggested the unthinkable, make a future bet on the Jaguars at 40-1 odds to win the Superbowl. Here we lie going into Championship Weekend, and Jacksonville can be had at 9-1. Does it seem absurd now? With the odds swinging drastically in your favor, options open up for massive hedging opportunities if the Jaguars can pull off an upset.
So why the Jaguars? A trend that stuck out to me and I stressed in my week 10 article was; Every year since 2000, a team in the top three in net yards per play has made the Super Bowl. At the time the Falcons, Jaguars, and Vikings were the candidates. Is it a coincidence that two of these teams are still alive?
Play action or Pass went 6-3-1 in the divisional round, boosting our yearly record to 57-46-3 (55.3%)
Eagles +3 WIN
Patriots -13 WIN
Patriots 1st half -7 WIN
Patriots Team total over 30.5 WIN
Steelers -7 (-115) LOSS
Saints+5 (-110) PUSH
Teasers 6 point
Patriots-7.5/Steelers-1 LOSS
Steelers-1/Saints+11 LOSS
Teasers 10 point
Patriots-3.5/ Eagles+13/ saints+15 (X2) WIN (2X)
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryboKnowz on twitter.
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Luis Robert Jr. tied it with an RBI single with two outs in the sixth inning, stole second base and scored the go-ahead run on Edgar Quero's single as the Chicago White Sox rallied to beat the Houston Astros 5-4 on Sunday in a game shortened to seven innings by rain.
The game was delayed for 80 minutes before being called. It was the White Sox’s second series victory of the season and their first series win against the Astros since July 2021. Chicago had lost or split its last six series with Houston.
Chicago reliever Mike Vasil (1-1) earned his first career win after holding the Astros without a hit in 2 1/3 innings.
Lance McCullers Jr. made his first start for Houston since Game 3 of the 2022 World Series. The 31-year-old right-hander missed the entire 2023 and 2024 seasons, but kept the White Sox scoreless Sunday in 3 2/3 innings. McCullers allowed three hits, walked three and struck out four.
Astros reliever Steven Okert (1-1) allowed two earned runs in one inning. Zach Dezenzo hit his first homer of the season for Houston and Mauricio Dubón had a two-run single.
Key moment
With two outs in the sixth and a rain delay looming, Robert dropped a 2-1 pitch into center field for a single. Chase Meidroth came around to score from second, tying it at four. Robert stole second, enabling Quero to bring him home on what turned out to be the winning base hit.
Key stat
Entering Sunday, Chicago was 30th in the majors with runners in scoring position, hitting just .202 this season. The White Sox initially struggled, but finished the game 4 for 13 with runners in scoring position. All five of the team’s runs came with two outs.
Up next
The Astros will continue their road trip in Milwaukee, while the White Sox head to Kansas City for a four-game series against the Royals. Both series are scheduled to begin Monday.