WITH LUCK RETIRING DUE TO EXCESSIVE INJURIES, IT'S TIME TO GET SERIOUS ABOUT PROTECTING WATSON
Who replaces Miller won't matter if Texans don't fix O-line
Aug 27, 2019, 6:50 am
Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Andrew Luck is walking away from the NFL because he can't take the punishment anymore and the toll it has taken on him mentally and physically. Even after new General Manager Chris Ballard re-built the offensive line and gave him more of the resources he needed, it was too late to save Luck who had to endure too many seasons of little to no protection on the field and less than stellar coaching and upper management off of it. If all of this sounds far too familiar and hits extremely close to home, it should, because Deshaun Watson is headed for a similar fate if things don't change and change quickly. The Texans and the Houston fans waited forever to finally get a franchise quarterback and the organization has done very little to protect and serve his best interests since he came on board.
If you need any recent proof of how bad the line is again this season and how dangerous the situation can be for the offensive weapons on the team, you only need to look at the first half film from the game Saturday night against the Cowboys. Watson was under constant pressure and found himself running for his life seemingly every down he was in the game. Running back Lamar Miller was lost for the season after suffering a season-ending injury when he was drilled at the line of scrimmage after a weak blocking effort left him fully exposed for the Dallas defense. Bill O'Brien and his staff allowed his best players to take the field with some of his reserve linemen and paid a very high price. Thankfully it wasn't worse, as Watson was able to escape serious injury and trade his helmet for a headset as he turned the signal calling over to Joe Webb for the rest of the night. As fans were left to ponder who the team might be able to trade for or bring in as a possible replacement for Miller, the bigger question in my mind was what does it matter who they bring in if they are just going to get beat up running behind by a bad O-line?
Seriously folks, before you start worrying about acquiring Jay Ajayi, Adrian Peterson, Melvin Gordon, Carlos Hyde, T.J. Yeldon or anyone else, you need to worry about who will be trusted with opening up holes for them while protecting the quarterback. The most important offseason need for this franchise was not addressed properly, after drafting two tackles that look more like guards and signing another batch of journeymen veterans who seem to have little left in the tank.
The returning linemen from last season have shown little progress and some have even regressed to the point of being in jeopardy of being released before the season even starts. Whoever is charged with being the GM of the hour between now and the start of the season needs to work all lines of communication with every other team in the league to find out what linemen might be available and at what price? Tackles and guards don't grow on trees or just pop up on the waiver wire waiting to be a starter in the trenches for the Texans, so the job is easier said than done. Teams groom their line by drafting and developing them over several years. Once a team finds a good one, they hang on to them for a long time. Running backs are a dime a dozen while quality blockers are a hot commodity that are hard to find and even harder to sign. O'Brien and his staff need to leave no stone unturned as they work the phone lines and find out what it would take to find some serviceable upgrades for the first line of offense and do it before another season is lost in transactions and failed experiments. The time for taking chances and flyers are over, there needs to be a sense of urgency and a focus on making substantial upgrades on the line and not just minor adjustments or staying status quo.
If you can't find a way to protect Deshaun Watson and open up the passing game, then how are you going to open up holes for whoever is running the football? That's why it really doesn't matter who the team brings in to replace Lamar Miller until they figure out who is capable of blocking for them. You can't blame Brian Gaine anymore or hide behind his firing, the GM by committee is under the microscope and B.O.B. needs to take the time to make some good things happen and fast.
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
Rockets advance to NBA Cup semifinals after thrilling win over Warriors
Dec 11, 2024, 11:50 pm
The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!