Every-Thing Sports

Why I still believe in the Astros' chances

Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve of the Astros
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

The year 2020 is the gift that keeps on giving. As if the shortened season due to the pandemic along with the sign-stealing scandal hanging over their heads wasn't enough, the Astros are now dealing with the fact that ace pitcher Justin Verlander may be out for the season. This is par for the course. My kids have alerts set up to get any breaking sports news, so they will typically be up to date on what's going on. From time to time, they'll break news to me when I'm busy. As I was in the middle of cooking the meals they requested, my daughter broke the news to me. I didn't believe her at first, so I asked my son to verify. He was busy with the dogs and couldn't get to his phone. I stopped, washed my hands, grabbed my phone and yelled.

I didn't want to believe it was true. It sunk in and felt like an anchor on my chest. My head hung low as I finished cooking. I couldn't even enjoy my food. All I could think about was their chances of winning a revenge title were out the window. Then it hit me. It hit hard. I raised my head up, looked off in the distance, thought for a sec, smiled, and knew there was still a good chance. So what made me change course? Here's what crossed my mind:

The pre-Verlander Astros

Prior to acquiring Verlander mere minutes ahead of the trade deadline in 2017, the Astros were still considered a World Series contender. They were 80-53, had an 11.5 game lead in the AL West, a 3.5 game lead in the AL overall, had the most runs scored in MLB, and the third best run differential rate in MLB. The bats were winning them games, not the pitching staff. This lineup has to support the team if they hope to remain title contenders. They'll need to win more 7-5 games than 4-1 games. Could this lead to Dusty Baker and crew changing their analytic approach? Possibly. It will also lead to...

More pressure on the pitching staff

Next man up never meant more than it does now when it comes to the Astros' pitching staff. Baker has been known to use, or even overuse, his bullpen. Being down last year's AL Cy Young winner is a serious blow. This adds pressure to the starters and the bullpen. Every starter moves up a spot in the rotation. Zack Greinke (older vet) and Lance McCullers Jr (coming off Tommy John surgery) will be relied on to carry the bulk of the load. Meanwhile, guys like Jose Urquidy, Josh James and others will have to step up and take on bigger roles. The bullpen will need to provide the starters steady backup when they either can't go any longer, or get into a jam. Forrest Whitley was left off the 30-man roster, but expect that to change if some of the aforementioned guys don't pan out and/or Whitley seems ready to contribute.

Something to prove

When the Astros were punished for the sign-stealing scandal, everybody and their momma had something to say. After the pandemic shut down sports, the blowback went away for a while. As the season was being discussed on how to return, things ramped back up. People actually said they were upset the Astros wouldn't get booed. All the while, this team took it in stride and prepped for their return. Given their start, the Verlander injury, the talent on this roster, and an us versus the world mentality, I can see them using this as motivation to stick it to everyone. Nobody wants them to win outside of Houston, and they know it. What better way to make all the haters sick?

There's something about saying "I told you so" with your actions as opposed to verbally announcing it. It's a feeling you can't replicate. It makes you want to DX crotch chop whoever doubted or hated on you. People who operate on a different level than others can use that hate as fuel in their tanks on the road to success. You can't tell me Alex Bregman won't see this as extra motivation. He's the kind of guy that will not only use it himself, but use it to fire up his teammates as well. Pro athletes are wired different. Lots of them play for the love of the game. They thrive off the challenge of being the best and beating the best to prove it. What better circumstances do the 2020 Astros have in order to do just that? I haven't given up hope on what this team can accomplish this season and neither should you.

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Astros eye a reset with the rotation lined up. Composite Getty Image.

The late ex-catcher and longtime broadcaster Joe Garagiola wrote a book called “Baseball is a Funny Game.” He wasn’t kidding, whether he meant funny as amusing, peculiar, or both (he meant both). The Astros lived it this past week, following a very satisfying three-game slap down of a previously red-hot Dodgers team in Los Angeles by having a Cleveland Guardians squad that staggered into Houston on a 10-game losing streak sweep the Astros three straight. As I put it during one of our “Stone Cold ‘Stros” podcast episodes this week: baseball, like a word that rhymes with spit, happens. The Astros try to clean it up this weekend with a chance to kick dirt on the Texas Rangers’ presently extremely faint American League West hopes. While no fun to endure, the Astros getting swept is no big deal. They weren’t going the rest of the season without any more bumps in the road. Unless they falter badly and/or Seattle has a huge rest of the way, the Astros' 29-10 surge before the Cleveland series is the stretch that will most define them making the playoffs for the ninth year in a row. The Astros hadn’t lost a home series since early April. Their longest losing streak all season remains just three games. They have to beat the Rangers Friday night to keep it that way.

Erratic starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Jack Leiter match up in the series opener, then it’s a pair of humdinger matchups. Saturday Framber Valdez goes to battle opposite Jacob deGrom. Sunday Hunter Brown starts on four days rest for just the second time this season countering the Arlington team’s Nathan Eovaldi. Framber tries to bounce back from his worst showing in over two months. Brown tries to rebound from his worst start since July 6 of last year. deGrom is quite a story. There has been no more dominant starting pitcher in his generation. It’s just that deGrom almost makes McCullers’s injury history look not so bad. Jacob deGrom won National League Rookie of the Year in 2014. He won back-to-back NL Cy Young Awards in 2018 and 2019, then finished third in the short 2020 COVID season. In 2021 he was off to what if maintained would have been one of the greatest seasons ever. 15 starts with a 1.08 earned run average. 92 innings pitched, a comical total of just 40 hits allowed, with only 11 walks, and 146 strikeouts. Sicko stuff. Then his shoulder fell off. deGrom missed over a year, came back and made 11 starts in 2022. All of that as a New York Met. The Rangers then crossed their fingers and gave him a five-year 185-million dollar free agent contract. DeGrom lasted six starts in 2023 before needing his second Tommy John surgery. The Rangers of course went on to win the World Series without him. deGrom returned to throw 10 innings late last season and looked good. With everyone around the Rangers holding their breath, deGrom has not missed a start this season. While not striking out batters near his rate in the past, deGrom has been fabulous. He’ll take the mound against the Astros sporting a 9-2 record (for a losing team) and 2.29 ERA. deGrom's career ERA is 2.50. He is 37 years old.

Options dwindling

All you can ask of players is that they prepare well, be mentally focused, and play their best. There is only so much juice to be squeezed from lemons. Zack Short, Cooper Hummel, and Taylor Trammell each played every inning of the Guardians series. They are 30, 30, and 27 years old respectively. Short has the highest career big league batting average of the three. That average is .169. Hummel sits at .167, Trammell at .165. Short went zero for 11 with seven strikeouts. Hummel went one for eleven and struck out in his last six at bats. Trammell actually had a good series going three for eleven including a three-run homer and a double. Bigger picture, manager Joe Espada is filling out a lineup card with one hand tied behind his back.

Espada’s task got no easier with the latest seemingly Astros-nomically inept medical work. It is mind-blowingly ridiculous that Jake Meyers further damaged a calf muscle while taking the field Wednesday night, just three days after he left a game with that calf ailing him. Organizationally the Astros look like a clown show on this (pretty sure Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez would co-sign). At least the All-Star break arriving after play Sunday will cover four days of Meyers’s absence, which is a good bet to extend beyond that, maybe well beyond that. That absence will be sorely felt. Beyond his elite patrol work in center field, Meyers’s offense this season made the leap from atrocious to well above average. About to come off the injured list, Chas McCormick gets one last chance to revive his Astros’ career. Decent prospect Jacob Melton is a center fielder who remains out injured. Kenedy Corona was called up this week when Christian Walker went on paternity leave. Corona also plays center field but is not a meaningful prospect. If Meyers is to miss months not weeks, general manager Dana Brown almost has to pursue an outfielder via trade.

 For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch! 

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