Every-Thing Sports
Adding speed was a priority for the Texans, but there are drawbacks
May 5, 2020, 6:55 am
Composite photo by Jack Brame
Last season, the Kansas City Chiefs proved speed kills. They hoisted the Lombardi Trophy on the back of a team built around an offense whose foundation is speed. They nicknamed their offense, or skill position players, the 'Legion of Zoom' because of said speed. No matter how big a hole they dug themselves into, that speed and explosive offense could dig them out of. The Texans saw it firsthand in their playoff loss. After being up 24-7, they ended up losing 51-31. The Chiefs repeated this feat in similar fashion against the 49ers in the Super Bowl. Going into the 4th quarter down 20-10, they rattled off 21 unanswered points to win 31-21.
The NFL is a copycat league. Suffice to say, Texans Grand Poobah Bill O'Brien decided this offseason to attempt to replicate that model. While this is different from their usual Patriots love fest, it is still an attempt to copy another team's identity instead of establishing their own. Whenever a team tries to replicate what another team has done to be successful, they often fail. The question is: do the Texans have enough speed on offense to cause mismatches and be just as explosive as the Chiefs?
Quarterback position is close
Patrick Mahomes has proven himself via winning league MVP and then Super Bowl MVP in consecutive years. He's accomplished enough to warrant the "face of the league" talk he's received. Deshaun Watson seems to be on the verge of being the Peyton Manning to Mahomes' Tom Brady. He may not have as talented of a roster, but he's enough of an enigma himself to elevate the guys around him. Watson is the kind of guy that wants it so bad, he'll play well and win in spite being held back due to his coach and GM being a buffoon.
Receivers are meh
When looking at the receiving corps around the league, the Texans' group is average at best. Too many guys with questionable injury history, or their best days seem to be behind them...or both. I saw a tweet earlier that embodies the gist of this article. It talked about the speed at receiver the Texans have and displayed their 40 times. I quoted it and said it was from their respective combines. Not to say this group isn't still explosive, but they all have their issues. This group lacks a true top dog and doesn't have anyone that sparks real fear in defenses. They have potential, but that same potential gets coaches and GMs fired. Let's not even address the tight end position. The Texans have thrown spaghetti at the wall there, whereas other teams have invested wisely.
Running backs?
Duke Johnson was underused last season. David Johnson hasn't been good since 2016. This is the combo the Texans are counting on going into next season. While I believe they can be good enough to get the job done, I'm not sure. A trade for a more stable and solid vet would make me more at ease (Leonard Fournette). However, given the talent at other positions, the running backs may only serve as the parsley flakes in the full meal presentation. Meaning they're a compliment, not a focal point.
Offensive line
Trading for and extending Laremy Tunsil came at an extremely high cost. Not to mention spending a 1st and a 2nd round pick on two other starters on the line last offseason. This line is coming together and could prove to be one of the better young lines in the league. They are athletic and can be nasty. This is the second most important position group on this side of the ball behind Watson. If they play well and up to their collective potential, I see great things happening. However, if they fail to live up to that potential, look forward to an arduous season.
There's so much hanging in the balance when it comes to this team's offensive explosion. All the what ifs can be put to bed if the main triggermen (Watson and O'Brien) are in sync. If O'Brien can tap into Watson's next level abilities, this offense can be scary. With the way things have gone the last couple years, things may be very average. I pray I'm right on the former and that the latter is a thing of the past. This offense reminds me of that awesome v6 engine with all the potential in the world. All it needs is a few add-ons and it could run the racetracks for years to come.
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As we barrel toward Opening Day which is now less than four weeks away, so far it’s been largely a case of no news is good news at Astros’ spring training. Meaning no major injuries to key players, no controversies brewing. There are numerous question marks that can’t truly be answered until we get into the games that count, such as how will Jose Altuve fare as a left fielder. The most exciting thing to happen over the first week of Grapefruit League games would probably be the two-home run game from top prospect Cam Smith, he of the Kyle Tucker trade. Both came off minor league caliber pitchers, but so what. Smith turned 22 years old last Saturday, the ideal is that he forces his way to the big leagues by the end of this season.
A strong majority of players who go on to greatness in Major League Baseball get to the big leagues before they turn 23. I spoke to this with Astros-specific perspective this week during an episode of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. The ten greatest offensive players in franchise history as measured by Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement metric are: Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Jose Altuve, Lance Berkman, Cesar Cedeno, Jimmy Wynn, Jose Cruz, Alex Bregman, Joe Morgan, and Bob Watson. Eight of those ten debuted in the majors at 22 years old or younger. Cedeno was 19! Morgan and Watson were 20. Wynn and Altuve were 21. Biggio, Bagwell, and Bregman were 22. That leaves Cruz and Berkman as the exceptions. “Cheo” debuted with the Cardinals and didn’t get to the Astros’ organization until he was 27. Berkman arrived at 23. He should have been up sooner but was backlogged in 1998 behind a fabulous outfield of Moises Alou, Carl Everett, and Derek Bell, with youngster Richard Hidalgo as the top reserve, while first base was manned by Bagwell in the heart of his prime.
The point is, special talents should be fast-tracked and/or fast-track themselves to the Major Leagues. There are numerous exceptions (team mistakes, late bloomers), but a very high percentage of eventual big stars get to The Show at a young age. Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, and Mike Trout entered at 19. Ronald Acuna Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Jose Ramirez did so at 20. Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Mookie Betts, and Yordan Alvarez were 21. Not all tear it up immediately the way Yordan did upon his promotion in 2019, but rare tools and talents merit accelerated opportunity. The focus here is on hitters, but this isn’t a bad spot to note that among the four greatest pitchers ever to hurl for the Astros, only Randy Johnson was older than 22 when he started (25 as a notoriously raw and wild Montreal Expo). Nolan Ryan was a 19-year-old New York Met, Roger Clemens a 21-year-old Boston Red Sox, and Justin Verlander a 22-year-old Detroit Tiger.
This is not predicting mega-stardom or a plaque in Cooperstown for Cam Smith, but if the Astros have such a player in what is presently a lousy farm system overall, the odds overwhelmingly favor Smith being that guy. He should be ticketed for double-A Corpus Christi to start this season after having had just 96 at bats in single-A and 19 at AA in the Cubs’ system after being drafted last July. Should Smith excel with the Hooks, it’s not preposterous to see him getting to the Astros over the summer, especially given the shaky state of the big club’s outfield going into the 2025 campaign. Plenty of players have skipped over AAA. While Smith was drafted as a third baseman, unless the Astros grow offensively desperate enough to move Isaac Paredes to second base, Smith’s fastest path to Daikin Park right now might lead to right field. Coming off a relentlessly bad 2024, it’s make-or-break time for Chas McCormick. Chas is making three-point-four million dollars this season and turns 30 in April. If he is not a heckuva lot better this year, there is no way the Astros are bringing him back at an even bigger salary number in 2026.
Jacob Melton is another outfield prospect, but he’s already 24 years old and has yet to show any sort of elite hitting traits in the minors. Melton looms as a cheaper replacement for Jake Meyers in center.
Those who will ultimately be great only have time siphoned from their careers when not brought up as soon as reasonable. Of course there is risk of unfulfilled potential or straight up bust status. If early failure crushes a player, he wasn’t headed for greatness anyway.
On the upswing
Closing aside: a pinging endorsement for the Astros’ Annual College Classic Friday through Sunday. The reigning national champion Tennessee Volunteers and runner-up Texas A&M Aggies head the field. Rice, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Arizona fill out what is always an excellent six-team event. With gorgeous weather forecast through the weekend the roof should be open throughout. RIGHT?
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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