GAMBLING GUIDE

Bookie Busters: Class is in Session; 6 tips for playing the beer Jenga of gambling

Bookie Busters: Class is in Session; 6 tips for playing the beer Jenga of gambling
Just minutes after celebrating a big World Cup win, people were looking for more action. Ryan Pierse/Getty Images

This edition of Bookie Busters, I wanted to do slightly differently. The idea came from the impatience of followers after the end of the World Cup. Let me explain.

Within 30 minutes of the World Cup Final, I was getting messages about the following day of the baseball slate or what was the next bet for us period, whatever it was.

That's what led me to this article; a moment to not precisely think about the wager, but to dive into the gamble you take behind it.
I named this the Beer pyramid, honestly because we were supposedly on a sports gambling vacation after the World Cup. A moment to enjoy "The fruits of our labor." But again, I admit that within minutes of France hoisting the trophy in the midst of pouring rain, gamblers weren't satisfied with the 3 MAX bet wins in one 90 minute session we pocketed as a team.

Transparency is vital, not only in life but in your gambling career. In the degenerate universe of wagering, it's even more critical.

A pyramid of beers I wanted to stack when I wrote this, so I can express the importance of moments, and the ones we must learn from in the past month. Situations, heartbreak, with triumph mixed, guided us through the greatest tournament in the world, together. But we must learn...

The class is in session

1) Patience. When the Jenga game starts, people play it safe. So they pick from the middle.
Our World Cup, and I refer to us as a team (grab a jersey), maybe didn't start as we wanted. For many touts, it put followers behind thousands, we fought our way out navigating with quality over volume, knocking down our bigger bets and losing smaller ones. MAX bets were our best friend. But the lesson here is this, don't change your method because results don't start the way you planned. Some low scoring games to start the tournament, mixed with underdogs holding powerhouses to favorable scorelines, led to a clean up by the books. We continued our strategy and didn't fall into the changing public perspective, and ultimately ended up on top. We started out safe, picking out the safest can to pull from the Pyramid, a little shaky but we made it to the next round. Don't lose patience.

2) As we progressed, we learned about public perspective. The books killed on lines that were getting pounded by the public. Let that be a lesson! The big casinos in Vegas are built of losers, and the public drives that, If you ever see 70% or over in action on a specific side, tread carefully, as these movies usually don't end well. The public drives lines because they read into the "How much have you done for me lately" narrative more than needed when handicapping. Recency bias can drive you the wrong way, trust the law of average and know progression or regression will occur throughout time.

3) Trust your instinct. By now the Jenga game is intense, and the Pyramid is getting shaky, when it comes to you, sometimes getting caught in the moment of not being focused or having a good time alters your decisions. Don't let that be the crash... Let me explain. As football approaches, these football slates are all day long. So you start your week researching and find your favorite spots.  Now, kickoff arrives and it can go many ways:
A) You win big and are profiting after the first wave of games, now you're playing with house money, but the decisions are much looser than that of before the day started. If not, you would have bet these games before the day, correct? It's a case of "I'm up, why not?
B) You lose in the opening games, and now you're playing a game of chase. Again you catch yourself betting games you didn't even plan on getting in on. Why? Because if this was a game you liked, you would have bet it before the day right? But, you are now caught in a diversion of catchup based on the result of the first games and not so much confidence.
Don't chase and trust what your research told you, trust instinct.

Lesson 4, as profound as we've gone, by now we are past the four-peat of beers and Doubled that. The game is to be told, not sold. Remember that, let me proceed.

4) The Pyramid is close to falling at this point, don't forget the importance of structure. If you can't keep that, it all collapses, as we are about to see. Don't let the base and composition of your work ever fall early. Practice bankroll management, guessing the right side is only maybe 60% of the game. Knowing when and where to get in is key.

5) What goes up, must come down...
By now, the hopes of the next person up are crumbling. But don't let disbelief be your demise. In the game of gambling, belief in your next move is pivotal, trust your process. In this world, you have to know how to take defeat but also stay genuine in jubilation. It's easy to be pleasant when you're winning, but how do you hold your head in defeat? Finding a sense of level and balance is the ultimate goal.

Well, this was intended to be a small Pyramid of 6, but again the content and the love behind it drove me to double. So let's make 6 twice as beautiful.

6) Money is the root of all evil, but my belief is blessing those roots with passion changes the way we grow. They say the dollar is evil. To me, it more depends what people do with it. What you do with fortune changes the script. I preach togetherness to the fullest because the game has given me the opportunity to do things for people I couldn't have ever imagined. A chance to make people smile.

The game comes crashing down, and things become mad.

The crazy thing is at the bottom, you find me, Jerry Bo,  still standing by your side, and that's what this is about, If you made it this far, then we are on the same page. I fight for the team!

The timing between our endeavors suits this piece perfect, I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did composing it.

I complete this one from my heart, and I hope you breathe in the words I try to preach.

"Karma always wins."

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoknowz on Twitter.

 

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Have the Astros turned a corner? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.

Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.

While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.

Caratini comes through!

So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.

Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.

Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.

Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.

Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…

Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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