GAMBLING GUIDE

Bookie Busters: Class is in Session; 6 tips for playing the beer Jenga of gambling

Bookie Busters: Class is in Session; 6 tips for playing the beer Jenga of gambling
Just minutes after celebrating a big World Cup win, people were looking for more action. Ryan Pierse/Getty Images

This edition of Bookie Busters, I wanted to do slightly differently. The idea came from the impatience of followers after the end of the World Cup. Let me explain.

Within 30 minutes of the World Cup Final, I was getting messages about the following day of the baseball slate or what was the next bet for us period, whatever it was.

That's what led me to this article; a moment to not precisely think about the wager, but to dive into the gamble you take behind it.
I named this the Beer pyramid, honestly because we were supposedly on a sports gambling vacation after the World Cup. A moment to enjoy "The fruits of our labor." But again, I admit that within minutes of France hoisting the trophy in the midst of pouring rain, gamblers weren't satisfied with the 3 MAX bet wins in one 90 minute session we pocketed as a team.

Transparency is vital, not only in life but in your gambling career. In the degenerate universe of wagering, it's even more critical.

A pyramid of beers I wanted to stack when I wrote this, so I can express the importance of moments, and the ones we must learn from in the past month. Situations, heartbreak, with triumph mixed, guided us through the greatest tournament in the world, together. But we must learn...

The class is in session

1) Patience. When the Jenga game starts, people play it safe. So they pick from the middle.
Our World Cup, and I refer to us as a team (grab a jersey), maybe didn't start as we wanted. For many touts, it put followers behind thousands, we fought our way out navigating with quality over volume, knocking down our bigger bets and losing smaller ones. MAX bets were our best friend. But the lesson here is this, don't change your method because results don't start the way you planned. Some low scoring games to start the tournament, mixed with underdogs holding powerhouses to favorable scorelines, led to a clean up by the books. We continued our strategy and didn't fall into the changing public perspective, and ultimately ended up on top. We started out safe, picking out the safest can to pull from the Pyramid, a little shaky but we made it to the next round. Don't lose patience.

2) As we progressed, we learned about public perspective. The books killed on lines that were getting pounded by the public. Let that be a lesson! The big casinos in Vegas are built of losers, and the public drives that, If you ever see 70% or over in action on a specific side, tread carefully, as these movies usually don't end well. The public drives lines because they read into the "How much have you done for me lately" narrative more than needed when handicapping. Recency bias can drive you the wrong way, trust the law of average and know progression or regression will occur throughout time.

3) Trust your instinct. By now the Jenga game is intense, and the Pyramid is getting shaky, when it comes to you, sometimes getting caught in the moment of not being focused or having a good time alters your decisions. Don't let that be the crash... Let me explain. As football approaches, these football slates are all day long. So you start your week researching and find your favorite spots.  Now, kickoff arrives and it can go many ways:
A) You win big and are profiting after the first wave of games, now you're playing with house money, but the decisions are much looser than that of before the day started. If not, you would have bet these games before the day, correct? It's a case of "I'm up, why not?
B) You lose in the opening games, and now you're playing a game of chase. Again you catch yourself betting games you didn't even plan on getting in on. Why? Because if this was a game you liked, you would have bet it before the day right? But, you are now caught in a diversion of catchup based on the result of the first games and not so much confidence.
Don't chase and trust what your research told you, trust instinct.

Lesson 4, as profound as we've gone, by now we are past the four-peat of beers and Doubled that. The game is to be told, not sold. Remember that, let me proceed.

4) The Pyramid is close to falling at this point, don't forget the importance of structure. If you can't keep that, it all collapses, as we are about to see. Don't let the base and composition of your work ever fall early. Practice bankroll management, guessing the right side is only maybe 60% of the game. Knowing when and where to get in is key.

5) What goes up, must come down...
By now, the hopes of the next person up are crumbling. But don't let disbelief be your demise. In the game of gambling, belief in your next move is pivotal, trust your process. In this world, you have to know how to take defeat but also stay genuine in jubilation. It's easy to be pleasant when you're winning, but how do you hold your head in defeat? Finding a sense of level and balance is the ultimate goal.

Well, this was intended to be a small Pyramid of 6, but again the content and the love behind it drove me to double. So let's make 6 twice as beautiful.

6) Money is the root of all evil, but my belief is blessing those roots with passion changes the way we grow. They say the dollar is evil. To me, it more depends what people do with it. What you do with fortune changes the script. I preach togetherness to the fullest because the game has given me the opportunity to do things for people I couldn't have ever imagined. A chance to make people smile.

The game comes crashing down, and things become mad.

The crazy thing is at the bottom, you find me, Jerry Bo,  still standing by your side, and that's what this is about, If you made it this far, then we are on the same page. I fight for the team!

The timing between our endeavors suits this piece perfect, I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did composing it.

I complete this one from my heart, and I hope you breathe in the words I try to preach.

"Karma always wins."

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoknowz on Twitter.

 

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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.

While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.

Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.

And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.

The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.

It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.

Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.

The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.

They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.

Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.

Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?

As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.

The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?

Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!

Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.

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