THE GAMBLING GUIDE

Bookie Busters: NBA Playoffs, Messi vs Ronaldo and more

Bookie Busters: NBA Playoffs, Messi vs Ronaldo and more
Ronaldo vs. Messi highlights a busy betting weekend. Photo courtesy of Nike, Inc.

Bookie Busters continues the winning-streak, busting the book again going 10-3 this week.

Last two weeks we are 17-5-2 ATS.

El Clasico          Sunday

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid

Bittersweet can be best used to describe Sunday's fixture. A glorious farewell to a soccer legend expects the fans of the Barca to be electric come Sunday.

Andres Iniesta will take the pitch for his final El Clasico, and what better way to do it than in front of the home crowd. Barcelona to the bone, Iniesta played with the Barca youth since the age of 12. He would go on to captain the under 15 team to a Victory in the 1999 Nike Cup final, netting a goal in the final minutes. It was then that he caught the eye of the former Captain Pep Guardiola, who said Iniesta would retire him. Guardiola would ultimately play a big role in Iniesta's career as a coach, and someone the midfielder looked up to as a father figure.

In a perfect world, Iniesta rides off into the sunset, after three more matches, winning his last El Clasico appearance making it a fairytale ending to a supernatural career.

Every good story has a villain, and the spoiler to this film, will be none other than Cristiano Ronaldo. With  the La Liga title wrapped up for Barcelona after Messi's hat trick last weekend, the teams will be playing for pride more than anything. With Madrid having played midweek in a crucial Champions League match, how much legs will they have to run around with the ultra passing Barcelona? Another factor will be that they qualified for the Champions League Final later this month and avoiding injuries will be the priority.

The match has somewhat of a laid-back feeling to it, and I expect an open game with teams looking to put on a show, with neither having anything to lose. Madrid just played an excruciating 90-minute match, and the defense will be feeling the quick turn around.

The Pick

Barcelona is undefeated this season and will be looking to complete the feat with four matches left in the season. At Camp Nou, they have 14 wins and 2 draws. While playing on home soil, they averaged 2.8 goals a game, while their counterpart nets two goals a game on average this season when playing as visitors. Barca is 4-1-2 in the last seven in this rivalry, and I see them continuing their dominance as remaining undefeated and the Iniesta factor will ultimately pull them through. Expect end to end action

Barcelona money line 3x

Game Total Over 3.5

Match Result and Both Teams to Score: Barca and Yes   +185

Will a goal be scored in both halves? YES

Messi scores a goal 2x

Both team to score in 2nd half   +130

Barca and 2.5    EVEN

Plays of the week

Germany

RB Leipzig vs. Wolfsburg

Over 2.5   -144

Over 3 +112

Mainz 05 vs. Dortmund

Over 3

NBA Playoffs     Friday 5/4

Pelicans vs. Warriors

Warriors over 30 1st quarter

Warriors Team total  1st half over 60

Over 119.5 First Half

For any questions or comments reach me @JerryBoKnowz on twitter

 

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Have the Astros turned a corner? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.

Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.

While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.

Caratini comes through!

So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.

Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.

Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.

Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.

Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…

Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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