Dropping NBA dimes: When betting on the Rockets, pace is key
The NBA playoff race is getting intense, and teams are making their late-season pushes for supremacy. One group that continues to impress is the hometown Houston Rockets. The No. 1 seed, currently on a 13-game win streak is what we are observing, but more so based on how have they fared in Vegas. With the home team playing unimaginable basketball this season, gamblers must pick spots to take advantage of; let's dive into some numbers.
Houston holds the best overall record in the league sitting at 47-13. When playing in the Toyota Center, they are 24-6; on the road 23-7. The Rockets have benefited from win streaks all throughout the year, where coming off a victory they are 39-7 (84.8%). Houston has the most stringent strength of schedule in the Western Conference the remainder of the regular season so keeping pace with the Warriors while trying to stay fresh will be a burden the team has to deal with. How have the Rockets played off rest?
0 Days 7-3
1 Day 30-7
2-3 Days 9-3
4+ Days 1-0
0 Days 3-6
1 Day 21-16-1
2-3 Days 6-6
4+ Days 1-0
The Rockets have had plenty of fortune in games with one-day rest, and they will need to continue it down the stretch where the rest of the schedule breaks down to:
0 Days- 8 games
1 Day- 9 games
2-3 Days- 5 games
4+ Days 0
Houston is 31-28-1 ATS this season but surprisingly have struggled to cover at home where they have a 12-17-1 record and only cash 41.4% of the time. As visitors, they have been much better and sit at 19-11 ATS.
Much of the inability to cover at home has to do with the spreads being set incredibly high this year. The books have caught on, have you?
When lines are set too high, discipline is an attribute a successful gambler must possess. Luckily for us that live in the gambling universe, we have other angles we can shoot at, finding the best value doesn't always have to be in the game spread.
The Rockets offense has been incredible thus far where they have been lighting up the scoreboard. Unfortunately, betting overs in their games isn't as simple as the team makes it look. Again, the books tend to catch up and adjust accordingly. If you don't watch the games and just look at the final scores, you observe a lot of high team totals for the Rockets.
Houston averages 114 points per game this year, and much has to do with the pace the team has played at the majority of the year. We say majority because lately, we have seen a slight change in the way the team is playing, let's take a look at the 13 game win streak.
During this incredible run, the pace the Rockets have been playing at is mysteriously low pace, they rank dead last (97.14). For a unit of measure let's look at the bottom of the league in Pace for February:
27. SAC 98.2
28. BRK 98.1
29. WAS 97.9
30. HOU 97.1
During their 11 game win streak this month, Houston is last in pace occupying the final spot in the NBA, 30th. Slowing the game down has helped them improve on the defensive end where they are 5th in Defensive PP100.
The Rockets have progressively slowed down their play in the last three months
Pace Rank in NBA:
December ranked 5th
January ranked 12th
February ranked 30th
During the 13 game run, it's true the Rockets have been playing the slowest possible pace in the league, but they have been extremely efficient of the offensive end of the court. Attached to this streak, the #1 offensive rating in the NBA (117.2), and the #5 defensive rating (102.9). This has enabled them to hold a net rating of +14.3, also leading the NBA.
Can it be that Coach Mike D'Antoni wants to keep his player's legs somewhat fresher for the postseason, or has he figured something out?
I know it's enticing to try and jump in on this steak and try to profit, just make sure when doing so, you find the best value.
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter