THE PALLILOG
Houston's heartbeat: Designing the ultimate farewell deal for Astros' Jose Altuve
Dec 14, 2023, 6:02 pm
THE PALLILOG
MLB Network is filling some of its offseason programming time this month with a series it calls “Prime 9.” It ranks the top nine players at each position from 1947 forward. Here is the count up of second basemen:
9. Jeff Kent
8. Robinson Cano
7. Lou Whitaker
6. Bobby Grich
5. Chase Utley
4. Ryne Sandberg
3. Craig Biggio
2. Joe Morgan
1. Jackie Robinson
No Jose Altuve?!? Before anyone has a conniption, the rankings are confined to retired players whose careers started no earlier than 1947, the year Jackie Robinson broke Major League Baseball’s color barrier. Robinson over Morgan for the top spot is questionable, though Robinson’s greatness as a player may be underappreciated because he is foremost known as the first black player. It’s somewhat analogous to Hank Aaron being underrated as an all-around player because he is known as the Home Run King (or was, until Giant-headed Barry Bonds broke Aaron’s record).
Jackie Robinson only played five seasons at second base. He debuted and won Rookie of the Year as a first baseman before moving to second in his second season. However, if not for racism Robinson would have gotten to the big leagues way before the 28 years old at which he made it, and presumably played a lot more second base.
Biggio should be very proud to be third on the list. Biggio and Ryne Sandberg are very comparable. Roberto Alomar is right there with both. Kent on this list over Alomar is silly.
So, if in a shocking and horrifying development Jose Altuve announced his retirement this weekend, where does he rate? As highly as third already is arguable depending on how much weight you give to postseason performance. Altuve trails everyone on the MLB Network list (and several others) in career Wins Above Replacement. With his lengthy list of OMG postseason moments, Altuve is now the most legendary player in Astros’ history. But should he rank ahead of Biggio now on a current-players-allowed 1947 and forward list? The postseason factor would probably carry the day for Altuve.
Biggio’s postseason resume is weak, a .234 batting average over 167 at bats with an awful .618 OPS. Well, over 181 postseason at-bats Morgan hit .182 with an OPS of .671. Robinson had 137 at-bats hitting the exact same .234 as Biggio, with a .679 OPS. The sample size is so small that postseason performance should not define a player’s legacy beyond his postseason legacy. But Altuve’s .851 OPS in the playoffs (while “only” a .273 hitter) is so stout.
Altuve begins the 2024 season 1013 hits behind Biggio, 953 hits shy of 3000. Altuve both walks and strikes out much more than he did earlier in his career. That is a net positive. Other than situations such as a runner on third base with fewer than two outs, striking out is often no worse than grounding out or flying out. A walk is almost always better than making an out. With his increased base on balls rate, Altuve put up a .393 on base percentage alongside his .311 batting average this year. That OBP is higher than when Altuve won his first batting title in 2014 with a .341 average.
Organizationally of course the Astros would love Altuve to be a one team only guy like Biggio. But at what cost? With the money spigot wide open around MLB, if the Astros are to extend Altuve before he starts the final season before he can become a free agent, what is a reasonable deal? Altuve turns 34 in May. He last racked up 170 hits in a season during his MVP campaign of 2017. So in all likelihood if Altuve is to reach 3000 hits he needs at least six more seasons. Would Jim Crane swallow hard and agree to a five-year extension at 30 mil per season (Altuve has made 30.2 per over the five-year extension he signed back in 2018)? Altuve would turn 39 years old during the final season of a five-year extension. Would Altuve take that or less? Over agent Scott Boras’s recommendation?
Decline is inevitable in both durability and performance. How much, how soon no one knows. Biggio was still a solid contributor at 39. In Biggio’s final two seasons he was bad then worse. He was 40 and 41! The Astros compromised trying to win to facilitate and market Biggio’s run up to 3000 hits. These Astros obviously hope to sustain as a winning franchise for many more years. If the team is contending but if Father Time has made major moves on late-30s Altuve, do the Astros play him almost everyday regardless? Would the Astros risk being on the hook for massive money for multiple years of a way over the hill player? “Just pay Altuve whatever he wants” is not sound business practice.
Jeff Bagwell was slotted eighth on the "Prime 9" list of first basemen, behind Albert Pujols, Stan Musial, Miguel Cabrera, Jim Thome, Mark McGwire, and Willie McCovey. One can make a credible case for “Baggy” as high as second. Musial was clearly a greater player but played well over half of his career in the outfield. McGwire ahead of Bagwell is borderline ridiculous.
The Houston Rockets have been one of the NBA’s more surprising teams this season. After their past three games, they shouldn’t shock anyone.
The Rockets beat the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers twice last week before traveling to Boston and pulling out a 114-112 victory over the defending champion Celtics on Monday night.
“We’re over halfway through now and our record is what it is, so it’s not just a fluke or anything,” Houston coach Ime Udoka said. “People watch film and see the physicality and the way that we play, it’s a little different than the rest of the league, maybe that catches people off guard initially, but I wouldn’t say we’re sneaking up on anybody anymore at this point in the season.”
Houston (31-14), which is second in the Western Conference, posted its ninth win in 11 games on Monday. Its record is a few percentage points better than that of the defending NBA champion Celtics (32-15).
The Cavs and Celtics were a combined 104-28 (.788) entering their games against Houston. The Rockets became the first team in NBA history to win three straight games against teams with that high of a winning percentage, with a minimum of 40 games for each opponent, according to OptaSTATS.
Amen Thompson hit a floater over Jaylen Brown with 0.7 seconds left to give the Rockets the victory at Boston.
“We feel like we can beat anybody, and this road trip is really proving that,” Thompson said.
Led by a balanced lineup featuring Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, veteran Fred VanVleet, Thompson and Dillon Brooks, the Rockets have been rolling since their 23-point home loss to the Celtics on Jan. 3.
“We don’t like to lose at home, especially to the Celtics,” Thompson said. “We just come in here every day and we just try to win.”
Teams around the league are taking notice of what Houston is doing. After the Cavaliers finished off their 19-point home win over Detroit on Monday, they spent time in the postgame locker room watching the Rockets’ victory.
“We’re just playing hard, playing together,” said Brooks, who finished with a 36 points against Boston, including a 10-of-15 performance from 3-point range.
“We have trust in one another,” Brooks said.
The Rockets are plenty confident, but they understand big wins mean nothing if they can't follow them up. They’ll get that chance Tuesday night when they play at Atlanta.
“Playing some of the top teams obviously gives us some confidence,” Udoka said.