THE PALLILOG

Houston's heartbeat: Designing the ultimate farewell deal for Astros' Jose Altuve

Astros Jose Altuve
Re-signing Jose Altuve should be the team's top priority. Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images.

MLB Network is filling some of its offseason programming time this month with a series it calls “Prime 9.” It ranks the top nine players at each position from 1947 forward. Here is the count up of second basemen:

9. Jeff Kent

8. Robinson Cano

7. Lou Whitaker

6. Bobby Grich

5. Chase Utley

4. Ryne Sandberg

3. Craig Biggio

2. Joe Morgan

1. Jackie Robinson

No Jose Altuve?!? Before anyone has a conniption, the rankings are confined to retired players whose careers started no earlier than 1947, the year Jackie Robinson broke Major League Baseball’s color barrier. Robinson over Morgan for the top spot is questionable, though Robinson’s greatness as a player may be underappreciated because he is foremost known as the first black player. It’s somewhat analogous to Hank Aaron being underrated as an all-around player because he is known as the Home Run King (or was, until Giant-headed Barry Bonds broke Aaron’s record).

Jackie Robinson only played five seasons at second base. He debuted and won Rookie of the Year as a first baseman before moving to second in his second season. However, if not for racism Robinson would have gotten to the big leagues way before the 28 years old at which he made it, and presumably played a lot more second base.

Biggio should be very proud to be third on the list. Biggio and Ryne Sandberg are very comparable. Roberto Alomar is right there with both. Kent on this list over Alomar is silly.

So, if in a shocking and horrifying development Jose Altuve announced his retirement this weekend, where does he rate? As highly as third already is arguable depending on how much weight you give to postseason performance. Altuve trails everyone on the MLB Network list (and several others) in career Wins Above Replacement. With his lengthy list of OMG postseason moments, Altuve is now the most legendary player in Astros’ history. But should he rank ahead of Biggio now on a current-players-allowed 1947 and forward list? The postseason factor would probably carry the day for Altuve.

Biggio’s postseason resume is weak, a .234 batting average over 167 at bats with an awful .618 OPS. Well, over 181 postseason at-bats Morgan hit .182 with an OPS of .671. Robinson had 137 at-bats hitting the exact same .234 as Biggio, with a .679 OPS. The sample size is so small that postseason performance should not define a player’s legacy beyond his postseason legacy. But Altuve’s .851 OPS in the playoffs (while “only” a .273 hitter) is so stout.

Altuve begins the 2024 season 1013 hits behind Biggio, 953 hits shy of 3000. Altuve both walks and strikes out much more than he did earlier in his career. That is a net positive. Other than situations such as a runner on third base with fewer than two outs, striking out is often no worse than grounding out or flying out. A walk is almost always better than making an out. With his increased base on balls rate, Altuve put up a .393 on base percentage alongside his .311 batting average this year. That OBP is higher than when Altuve won his first batting title in 2014 with a .341 average.

Organizationally of course the Astros would love Altuve to be a one team only guy like Biggio. But at what cost? With the money spigot wide open around MLB, if the Astros are to extend Altuve before he starts the final season before he can become a free agent, what is a reasonable deal? Altuve turns 34 in May. He last racked up 170 hits in a season during his MVP campaign of 2017. So in all likelihood if Altuve is to reach 3000 hits he needs at least six more seasons. Would Jim Crane swallow hard and agree to a five-year extension at 30 mil per season (Altuve has made 30.2 per over the five-year extension he signed back in 2018)? Altuve would turn 39 years old during the final season of a five-year extension. Would Altuve take that or less? Over agent Scott Boras’s recommendation?

Decline is inevitable in both durability and performance. How much, how soon no one knows. Biggio was still a solid contributor at 39. In Biggio’s final two seasons he was bad then worse. He was 40 and 41! The Astros compromised trying to win to facilitate and market Biggio’s run up to 3000 hits. These Astros obviously hope to sustain as a winning franchise for many more years. If the team is contending but if Father Time has made major moves on late-30s Altuve, do the Astros play him almost everyday regardless? Would the Astros risk being on the hook for massive money for multiple years of a way over the hill player? “Just pay Altuve whatever he wants” is not sound business practice.

Jeff Bagwell was slotted eighth on the "Prime 9" list of first basemen, behind Albert Pujols, Stan Musial, Miguel Cabrera, Jim Thome, Mark McGwire, and Willie McCovey. One can make a credible case for “Baggy” as high as second. Musial was clearly a greater player but played well over half of his career in the outfield. McGwire ahead of Bagwell is borderline ridiculous.

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Vikings defeat the Texans, 34-7. Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Getty Images.

Sam Darnold matched his career high with four touchdown passes, and the undefeated Minnesota Vikings used another dominant performance on defense to trounce C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans 34-7 on Sunday.

Jonathan Greenard had three of the four sacks of Stroud, his former teammate, as the Vikings (3-0) intercepted the 2023 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year twice while rattling the Texans (2-1) with their aggressive and unpredictable scheme — and the crowd noise that cranked up with each stop.

Darnold connected with Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones for scores in the first quarter on third down plays inside the 10. In the second half, he delivered a touchdown to Jalen Nailor for the third straight game and got tight end Johnny Mundt one, too.

Jefferson had six catches for 81 yards and Jones rushed 19 times for 102 yards and caught five passes for 46 yards for the Vikings, who were a trendy pick for last place in the NFC North but have beaten back-to-back contenders to start their home slate against San Francisco and Houston.

Darnold went 17 for 28 for 181 yards without a turnover and also tied his career best with a three-game winning streak as a starter, a feat the 2018 third overall draft pick hadn’t accomplished in three years. He left the game to get his left knee checked after a late hit penalty on former Vikings defensive end Danielle Hunter, but he came back to a loud roar after being cleared by the medical staff.

The Vikings improved to 6-0 all time against the Texans, who finally scored with 3:56 left in the third quarter on a pass from Stroud to Cam Akers, who spent part of last season with the Vikings and got his first start with the Texans with Joe Mixon injured.

Stroud went 20 for 31 for 215 yards. This was the first time in 10 starts he'd been picked off.

Stroud's first pass was swatted at the line by Harrison Phillips, sending the ball straight back to linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill for a gift-wrapped interception he returned to the 21. Darnold scrambled left six plays later and found Jefferson open in the front corner of the end zone for the early lead.

The Vikings nearly took another turnover deep into Houston territory when Grugier-Hill wrestled a short pass away from tight end Dalton Schultz and Stephon Gilmore scooped up the ball for a romp to the 25. The play was ruled incomplete after a long review, but after Ka'imi Fairbairn's 54-yard field-goal attempt went barely wide right — his first miss of the season — the Vikings again seized their field-position momentum and scored in six plays on a short throw to Jones.

The Vikings had full respect for the talent the Texans presented, starting with the 2023 second overall draft pick in Stroud as the centerpiece of this on-the-rise team, but they were confident their aggressive and unpredictable defense would present problems of its own.

Greenard, one of three ex-Texans in the mix for the Vikings, had the first sack of Stroud in the first quarter by steamrolling rookie tight end Cade Stover.

The Texans were clearly off-kilter with the crowd noise that fed off the pressure generated by defensive coordinator Brian Flores and his protegees, with six of seven first-half penalties coming prior to the snap.

Four-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil had three of them, one an illegal formation call that erased a third down throw that would've moved the chains to near midfield. Another one was the last of three straight false starts by the Texans after they had third-and-4 at the Minnesota 25. Tunsil got flagged again for illegal formation, which was declined by the Vikings so they could force a punt.

Nico Collins, the NFL's leading receiver entering the week with 252 yards in the first two games, was mostly a nonfactor as Gilmore and the rest of the secondary kept him bottled up. His 34-yard catch on third down set up Houston's only touchdown.

Be sure to watch the video above as the crew from Texans on Tap reacts to the game live on YouTube.

Diggs returns

Stefon Diggs led the Texans with 10 catches for 94 yards in his first game in Minnesota since leaving the Vikings four years ago. Diggs had 12 receptions for 128 yards for the Bills on Nov. 13, 2022, in a loss to the Vikings in Buffalo.

Injuries

Texans: In addition to the absence of Mixon (ankle), backup RB Dameon Pierce (hamstring) missed his second straight game.

Vikings: WR Jordan Addison (ankle), LB Ivan Pace Jr. (quad, ankle) and OLB Dallas Turner (knee) were all inactive. Grugier-Hill took Pace's place in the first down defense.

Up next

Texans: Host Jacksonville next Sunday.

Vikings: Visit Green Bay next Sunday.

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