THE PALLILOG
Houston's heartbeat: Designing the ultimate farewell deal for Astros' Jose Altuve
Dec 14, 2023, 6:02 pm
Re-signing Jose Altuve should be the team's top priority. Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images.
MLB Network is filling some of its offseason programming time this month with a series it calls “Prime 9.” It ranks the top nine players at each position from 1947 forward. Here is the count up of second basemen:
9. Jeff Kent
8. Robinson Cano
7. Lou Whitaker
6. Bobby Grich
5. Chase Utley
4. Ryne Sandberg
3. Craig Biggio
2. Joe Morgan
1. Jackie Robinson
No Jose Altuve?!? Before anyone has a conniption, the rankings are confined to retired players whose careers started no earlier than 1947, the year Jackie Robinson broke Major League Baseball’s color barrier. Robinson over Morgan for the top spot is questionable, though Robinson’s greatness as a player may be underappreciated because he is foremost known as the first black player. It’s somewhat analogous to Hank Aaron being underrated as an all-around player because he is known as the Home Run King (or was, until Giant-headed Barry Bonds broke Aaron’s record).
Jackie Robinson only played five seasons at second base. He debuted and won Rookie of the Year as a first baseman before moving to second in his second season. However, if not for racism Robinson would have gotten to the big leagues way before the 28 years old at which he made it, and presumably played a lot more second base.
Biggio should be very proud to be third on the list. Biggio and Ryne Sandberg are very comparable. Roberto Alomar is right there with both. Kent on this list over Alomar is silly.
So, if in a shocking and horrifying development Jose Altuve announced his retirement this weekend, where does he rate? As highly as third already is arguable depending on how much weight you give to postseason performance. Altuve trails everyone on the MLB Network list (and several others) in career Wins Above Replacement. With his lengthy list of OMG postseason moments, Altuve is now the most legendary player in Astros’ history. But should he rank ahead of Biggio now on a current-players-allowed 1947 and forward list? The postseason factor would probably carry the day for Altuve.
Biggio’s postseason resume is weak, a .234 batting average over 167 at bats with an awful .618 OPS. Well, over 181 postseason at-bats Morgan hit .182 with an OPS of .671. Robinson had 137 at-bats hitting the exact same .234 as Biggio, with a .679 OPS. The sample size is so small that postseason performance should not define a player’s legacy beyond his postseason legacy. But Altuve’s .851 OPS in the playoffs (while “only” a .273 hitter) is so stout.
Altuve begins the 2024 season 1013 hits behind Biggio, 953 hits shy of 3000. Altuve both walks and strikes out much more than he did earlier in his career. That is a net positive. Other than situations such as a runner on third base with fewer than two outs, striking out is often no worse than grounding out or flying out. A walk is almost always better than making an out. With his increased base on balls rate, Altuve put up a .393 on base percentage alongside his .311 batting average this year. That OBP is higher than when Altuve won his first batting title in 2014 with a .341 average.
Organizationally of course the Astros would love Altuve to be a one team only guy like Biggio. But at what cost? With the money spigot wide open around MLB, if the Astros are to extend Altuve before he starts the final season before he can become a free agent, what is a reasonable deal? Altuve turns 34 in May. He last racked up 170 hits in a season during his MVP campaign of 2017. So in all likelihood if Altuve is to reach 3000 hits he needs at least six more seasons. Would Jim Crane swallow hard and agree to a five-year extension at 30 mil per season (Altuve has made 30.2 per over the five-year extension he signed back in 2018)? Altuve would turn 39 years old during the final season of a five-year extension. Would Altuve take that or less? Over agent Scott Boras’s recommendation?
Decline is inevitable in both durability and performance. How much, how soon no one knows. Biggio was still a solid contributor at 39. In Biggio’s final two seasons he was bad then worse. He was 40 and 41! The Astros compromised trying to win to facilitate and market Biggio’s run up to 3000 hits. These Astros obviously hope to sustain as a winning franchise for many more years. If the team is contending but if Father Time has made major moves on late-30s Altuve, do the Astros play him almost everyday regardless? Would the Astros risk being on the hook for massive money for multiple years of a way over the hill player? “Just pay Altuve whatever he wants” is not sound business practice.
Jeff Bagwell was slotted eighth on the "Prime 9" list of first basemen, behind Albert Pujols, Stan Musial, Miguel Cabrera, Jim Thome, Mark McGwire, and Willie McCovey. One can make a credible case for “Baggy” as high as second. Musial was clearly a greater player but played well over half of his career in the outfield. McGwire ahead of Bagwell is borderline ridiculous.
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How Houston Rockets hold the cards for a franchise-changing summer
May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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