THE PALLILOG
Here's your all-inclusive guide to Houston Astros Opening Day
Mar 21, 2024, 3:28 pm
The Astros open the season next Thursday against the Yankees. Composite Getty Image.
Away we go. Well, almost. It's Opening Day for the Astros, when it will be neither Justin Verlander nor Gerrit Cole on the mound as the Astros and Yankees break the seal on the 2024 season.
As Joe Espada readies for his first journey as manager, he does so knowing he’ll be posting a lineup in which he rightfully has tremendous confidence. If Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez can each play 140-plus games, the only one-two punch atop a lineup that projects as good or better is the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts-Freddie Freeman combo. And that is with due respect to the reigning World Series Champion Texas Rangers’ Marcus Semien-Corey Seager duo. Alex Bregman was last a superstar in 2019 but is still a way above average player with the motivation of a guy heading for free agency at season’s end. Even if the Astros cling to a dubious policy of not going longer than six (seven?) years in a contract offer to a 27-year-old, Kyle Tucker is a stud if not Juan Soto or Ronald Acuna Jr. (he’s not).
If Chas McCormick is exactly the same player he was last season, the Astros will be delighted. Yainer Diaz can have a season that many would consider disappointing and still be a substantial upgrade over Martin Maldonado. Perhaps with smarter playing time allotment Jose Abreu has a better second season with the Astros. If he does not, cut bait time will approach. We’ll see about Jake Meyers and the swing-retooled Jeremy Pena. All told, given generally good health this offense should be better than last year’s and that offense finished third in the American League in runs scored.
On the other hand Espada will be handing the ball to members of a starting rotation as shaky as the Astros have had beginning a season since before they became a Major League Baseball superpower in 2017. Going into 2017 the Astros’ number one starter was Dallas Keuchel who was coming off of a bad 2016 as follow-up to his 2015 American League Cy Young Award-winning campaign. Lance McCullers was the number two, coming off a season ending injury (some things seem to never change). In 2015 Charlie Morton pitched in just four games before his own season ending injury, the free agent signee was the number three starter. After mixed results as a rookie Joe Musgrove slotted fourth, with the fifth spot belonging to a guy who shall remain nameless. Nah. Mike Fiers.
It worked out okay for those 2017 Astros. Keuchel had a strong bounce back year though missed a quarter of the season hurt. Morton was outstanding. McCullers was mediocre and had multiple injury problems. Fiers was mostly bad but did lead the staff in innings pitched. Brad Peacock did tremendous rotation fill-in work over 21 starts. Peacock’s career year ended with a 13-2 record and 3.00 earned run average. After missing the first half of the season to his injury, Collin McHugh was rock solid over 12 second half starts. And the addition of that Verlander fellow just before the trade deadline August 31 helped a tad.
Not one guy in the Astros’ rotation opening this season was a good big league pitcher at the end of last season. Framber Valdez largely unraveled, Cristian Javier just wasn’t very good, Hunter Brown was poor from May 1 forward, J.P. France faded late, and Ronel Blanco was a non-factor. The Valdez-Javier tandem doesn’t need to be 2019 Verlander-Cole but needs to be solid. When he belatedly starts his season the 41-year-old Verlander can’t be and doesn’t need to be 2019 or 2022 Verlander, but can he be counted on for positive work over, say, 25 starts?
For the season the 2017 Astros finished fifth in the American League in ERA. Closer to average than great. The offense was great. It was by far the best in the AL, and relative to the competition the best offense the Astros have ever had. Its only weak spot was the washed-up Carlos Beltran, to whom A.J. Hinch gave way too much playing time. That squad could be a template for this one: pitching stabilizes to be solid while the offense bludgeons people. 2017’s ultimate outcome is certainly 2024’s goal.
In 2017 the Astros had no legitimate competition within the AL West. Not the case this year. The Seattle Mariners go into the season with clearly the division’s best starting rotation but as always with a questionable offense. The Rangers led the AL in runs and may have a better lineup this year, but like the Astros have starting pitching concerns. Unlike the Astros the Rangers have back of the bullpen concerns too. Should add up to a fun six-month race again.
Here’s to the new season! Our second season of the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast is already underway. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics weekly. On our regular schedule the first post goes up Monday afternoon. You can get the video version (first part released Monday, second part Tuesday, sometimes a third part Wednesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available at initial release Monday via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Isaac Paredes has been a steady force in the middle of the Astros’ order, but a tweaked hamstring suffered during Thursday’s win over the White Sox may force Houston to recalibrate, again.
If Paredes misses time, the most logical shuffle would see Jose Altuve sliding back to second base, with Mauricio Dubón stepping in at third. It’s a reasonable patch. But internally, there’s also some intrigue around whether Cam Smith—currently thriving in right field—could slide back to his original position on the infield. The idea isn’t without merit; Smith is the club’s best offensive option at third in Paredes’ absence. But defensively, it’s hard to justify moving him right now. Smith made several standout plays in the Chicago series, reinforcing just how important his glove has become to the Astros’ outfield defense. One thing is for sure, the Astros can't afford to play both Dubon and Brendon Rodgers in the infield regularly. The offense would take a huge hit.
Timing, however, might be on Houston’s side. The next stretch of games features the Twins, Athletics, and Angels—three teams the Astros can beat even while navigating lineup instability. It helps that Yainer Diaz and Christian Walker are showing signs of life at the plate. Diaz, in particular, has been red-hot, posting an OPS north of 1.200 over the past week. Walker is batting over .300 during that same span, giving the Astros enough firepower to survive short-term turbulence.
Elsewhere, the outfield presents its own set of choices. Jacob Melton has shown enough in the field to warrant a serious look as Chas McCormick’s replacement when he returns from injury. He’s still searching for consistency at the plate, batting under .200 in his first 10 big league games. But his arm and left-handed bat give manager Joe Espada a little more lineup flexibility—especially with Yordan Alvarez still out and the offense skewing right-handed.
For now, the Astros have room to adjust. But if Paredes ends up missing significant time, they’ll need more than just a few temporary solutions to keep their momentum going.
There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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